Demographic Statistics and Trends

1. Demographic Statistics and Trends Knowing who is (and who isn’t) knocking at the college door Becky Brodigan Middlebury College College Board Forum October 31, 2005

2. What goes into the equation? • High School Graduation Projections (by race and income) by region through 2018 • College Going Rates • Migration Data • Enrollment Patterns by Race and Gender

3. New England, Surrounding States, Regions and the United States • Projections by Race/Ethnic Group and Income • Vary widely by racial/ethnic group and region • Overall picture not rosy

4. Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks in 2009 and doesn’t recover until 2018… Source: WICHE/The College Board

5. HS Graduates in New England

6. HS Graduates in New England

7. Changes in actual numbers from 2006 to 2108

8. Chance for college by age 19 in New England

9. SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity

10. Changes in HS graduates in the Northeast

11. Changes in HS graduates in the Pennsylvania

12. Projections of HS Graduates in the South

13. Chance for college by age 19 in South

14. Projections of HS Graduates in the Midwest

15. Projections of HS Graduates in the West

16. Chance for college by age 19 in the West

17. Projections of HS Graduates in the United States

18. Emigration of College Students

19. Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State

20. Levels of Education for the High School Class of 1992 ( by 2000)

21. Four-Year College and University Enrollment Rates of 1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test Scores

22. Participation by Low-income • All New England states above the national average of 25% • Lowest rates are in the south and west

23. College going rates: Where are the boys? • Males outnumber female through age 30 – for every 100 girls born, 105 males are born • Males account for less than 50% of high school graduates • Males account for 47% of college freshmen • Continuation rates vary by gender – men around 61% and women 67%

24. What about boys? • Among 15-24 year olds, suicide rates are almost 6 times higher for boys than for girls • There are 707 prisoners for every 100,000 people and 90% are male • The male voting rate has declined from 72% to 53% from 1964 to 2000 – twice the decline in the female voting rate • Do/will males have an advantage in college admissions? From Fact Sheet: What’s Wrong with the Guys? Thomas G. Mortenson

25. SAT Takers by Gender

26. Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Institution Type

27. Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender and Region

28. Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Income

29. Fall 2004 Freshmen Average HS Grades by Gender

30. NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time

31. NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time

32. Enrollment at Liberal Arts Colleges

33. Enrollment at Ivy League

34. Doctoral (minus technical universities)

35. Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot Based on Need, 1982 to 2002 (Source: College Board)

36. Summary • HS graduation projections • in NE going down over all • Increases in groups with lower college continuation rates • Increasing in states that do not export students • Male/Female ratios not likely to improve • Colleges in NE going to have to work harder just to maintain market share – expand marketing efforts and develop new strategies

37. What do these colleges have in common? • Bradford College • Westbrook College • Ricker College • Trinity College • Notre Dame No longer exist or exist under a different name

38. References Publications • Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004 • Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES. • College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England - All Schools • 2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers • Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2002 • The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics • Education Pays 2004: The College Board • Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American Council on Education Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003. • Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003. • The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004. Books • Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003. • Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson, Ballantyne, 2000. • Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor, Praeger/ACE, 2002. • America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D, Kahlenberg, Editor, The Century Foundation, 2004. • The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and Universities; Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003.