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Colorado Demographic Trends

Colorado Demographic Trends. Elizabeth Garner State Demographer Colorado Department of Local Affairs dola.state.co.us/demog February 2010. Colorado Demography Office. State Agency Responsible for population data needed by state agencies. Department of Local Affairs

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Colorado Demographic Trends

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  1. Colorado Demographic Trends Elizabeth Garner State Demographer Colorado Department of Local Affairs dola.state.co.us/demog February 2010

  2. Colorado Demography Office • State Agency • Responsible for population data needed by state agencies. • Department of Local Affairs • Prepares data and information in ways that account for local perspectives, needs. • Public Information • Makes data and information readily available to the public, including citizens, businesses and non-profit agencies. • Outreach • Work with local governments and others to understand what the numbers are saying

  3. Overview of Demographic Trends • Most of Colorado’s population change is related to economic change.. net migration. • Aging of the Baby Boomers • Growing racial and ethnic diversity • Changing occupational mix • Growing income diversity

  4. Population Projections • Two tiered approach • Population • Age characteristics • Entry, exit from labor force • Suppliers of labor • Economy • Jobs • Demand for labor • Migration primarily driven by demand for workers • Social migration – prisons, colleges, young adults (arriving without jobs).

  5. Migration Tracking Job Growth (Average Net New Jobs)

  6. Source: State Demography Office

  7. 7.7 million Source: State Demography Office

  8. Growth in College Age Population • Between 2010 and 2035 the population 18-24 will become a smaller share of the total population due to the aging of the baby boomers (10.7% vs. 9.6%) • In most counties the population 18-24 is forecast to grow at a slower rate than the total population except for some resort counties and those that experienced a baby boom in the early 2000s like Denver and Elbert.

  9. Long Term Demographic Issue: Aging of Baby Boomers • The Baby Boom: 1946 – 1964 • First reach 65 in 2010 • By 2030 Colorado’s 65+ population will be three times its size in 2000, growing from 400,000 to 1.2 million

  10. Colorado Population by Age 1970

  11. Colorado Population by Age 1980

  12. Colorado Population by Age 2000

  13. Colorado Population by Age 2020

  14. Colorado Population By Age 2000 and 2030

  15. Aging Impacts or Differences • Numbers -Colorado has never had many older people • 4th lowest in 65+, 6th highest in baby boomers - 31% • Economic driver • 65+ spending estimated to support 200,000 jobs in 2006 • Service oriented, especially health services - Occupational mix • Changing consumption patterns • Healthier • Labor Force – 45% of labor force. – replacement, new demands • More diverse age profile • Ratio of 65+ per 20-64 year olds in CO • Educational Attainment • 28.8% of Baby Boomers have a Bachelor’s degree or higher • 23.3% of the population in subsequent generations have the same educational attainment

  16. Growing Racial and Ethnic Diversity • Racial and Ethnic minorities growing at a faster rate – 2.7% vs 1.4% between 2000 and 2010 • Hispanics and Asians tend to be younger and therefore tend to have higher birth rate. • Immigrants tend to be younger • Tendency to return to retire – depends on country of origin. • In 2008 33% of the population 20 and under were ethnic and racial minorities compared to 23% over the age of 20. • Immigrant population is more disperse than ever – big cities, small towns, suburbs, rural areas, coasts, interior America. • Cost of living, jobs

  17. Occupational Structure • Continue shift out goods-producing into service producing • High tech. • Business services • Health and social services • Growth projected at both the higher and lower ends of pay range. • Information technology, health care • Health care, hospitality

  18. Income Diversity • Age distribution • Potential to decrease median household income as more people become non-workers. • Occupational mix • High and low ends with fewer middle income.

  19. Summary • Most of Colorado’s population change is related to economic change.. net migration. • Aging of the Baby Boomers • Growing racial and ethnic diversity • Changing occupational mix • Growing income diversity

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