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Demographic Statistics and Trends

Demographic Statistics and Trends

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Demographic Statistics and Trends

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  1. Demographic Statistics and Trends Knowing who is (and who isn’t) knocking at the college door Becky Brodigan Middlebury College College Board Forum October 29, 2005

  2. What goes into the equation? • High School Graduation Projections (by race and income) by region through 2018 • College Going Rates • Migration Data • Enrollment Patterns by Race and Gender

  3. SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity

  4. Projections of HS Graduates in the South

  5. Chance for college by age 19 in South

  6. Projections of HS Graduates in the West

  7. Chance for college by age 19 in the West

  8. Projections of HS Graduates in the United States

  9. Migration of College Educated: Students more likely to leave after graduation

  10. Chance for college by age 19 in New England

  11. Emigration and Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State

  12. Levels of Education for the High School Class of 1992 ( by 2000)

  13. Four-Year College and University Enrollment Rates of 1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test Scores

  14. Participation by Low-income • All New England states above the national average of 25% • Lowest rates are in the south and west

  15. College going rates: Where are the boys? • Males outnumber female through age 30 – for every 100 girls born, 105 males are born • Males account for less than 50% of high school graduates • A little less than 2/3 of high school graduates go on to college immediately following high school • Males account for 47% of college freshmen • Continuation rates vary by gender – men around 61% and females 67%

  16. What about boys? • For every 115 male conceived, only 105 are born (not counting abortions) • Among 15-24 year olds, suicide rates are 5.8 times higher for boys than for girls • There are 707 prisoners for every 100,000 people and 90% are male • A third of all children do not have a father present in the home • The male voting rate has declined from 72% to 53% from 1964 to 2000 – twice the decline in the female voting rate From Fact Sheet: What’s Wrong with the Guys? Thomas G. Mortenson

  17. SAT Takers by Gender

  18. Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Institution Type

  19. Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender and Region

  20. Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by Income

  21. Fall 2004 Freshmen Average HS Grades by Gender

  22. NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time

  23. NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time

  24. Enrollment at Liberal Arts Colleges

  25. Enrollment at Ivy League

  26. Doctoral (minus technical universities)

  27. Summary • HS graduation projections • in NE going down over all • Increasing in groups with lower college continuation rates • Increasing in states that do not export students • Male/Female ratios not likely to improve • Colleges in NE going to have to work harder just to maintain market share

  28. What do these colleges have in common? • Bradford College • Westbrook College • Ricker College • Trinity College • Notre Dame No longer exist or exist under a different name

  29. References Publications • Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004 • Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES. • College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England - All Schools • 2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers • Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2002 • The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics • Education Pays 2004: The College Board • Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American Council on Education Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003. • Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003. • The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004. Books • Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003. • Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson, Ballantyne, 2000. • Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor, Praeger/ACE, 2002. • America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D, Kahlenberg, Editor, The Century Foundation, 2004. • The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and Universities; Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003.