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Demographic Trends and Prospects

Demographic Trends and Prospects. Presented by: Eduard Bos Health, Nutrition, and Population The World Bank John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides. Demographic Trends and Prospects. Past trends in population size Projections

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Demographic Trends and Prospects

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  1. Demographic Trends and Prospects Presented by: Eduard Bos Health, Nutrition, and Population The World Bank John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides

  2. Demographic Trends and Prospects • Past trends in population size • Projections • 3) Determinants of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration • 4) Impact of AIDS epidemic • 5) Changing age structures • 6) Population policy options

  3. Projections of Population Size Selected Countries:2000-2050 Increase Population size (millions) Country 2000 2050 2000-2050 1,262 1,505 19% China India 1,016 1,561 54% 210 320 52% Indonesia Brazil 170 245 44% Pakistan 138 292 112% 130 230 77% Bangladesh Nigeria 127 261 106% Russia 146 114 -22% Japan 127 105 -21% Germany 82 67 -17%

  4. How Reliable are Demographic Projections • Cohort component methodology: trends in vital rates projected separately • Baseline data: accurate data determine short-term accuracy • Assumptions about the future: past trends; no “unusual” events • Longer term: increasing uncertainty • Global, regional, country, subnational

  5. The Next Billion

  6. 2) Determinants of population change: • fertility and mortality

  7. Why Population Growth in LDCs Continues • Fertility remains above the replacement level • Declining mortality • Population momentum due to a young age structure

  8. 3) Impact of AIDS epidemic

  9. Global Estimates of HIV Prevalence 19902000 Number infected with HIV 9 36 million Percent of adults infected 0.3 1.2 %

  10. Demographic impact of AIDS

  11. How does HIV/AIDS affect demographic trends • Mortality of adults (mostly 20-50) increases death rates • Mortality of adults reduces number of women of childbearing age: fewer births • Mortality of children increases death rates, reduces future size of adult population • Mortality indicators much worse • Dependency ratios not greatly affected

  12. 4) Changing age structure Population Council

  13. Age Structures

  14. 5) Population policy options

  15. Causes of Population Growth • Policy Options 1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion • Strengthen family planning programs • Improve fertility regulation technology

  16. Causes of Population Growth • Policy Options 1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion • Strengthen family planning programs • Improve fertility regulation technology • Emphasize human development 2) High desired Family size

  17. Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Demand for Births • Level of education • Status of women • Infant Mortality

  18. Causes of Population Growth Policy Options • Strengthen family planning programs • Improve fertility regulation technology 1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion 2) High desired family size • Emphasize human development 3) Momentum of population growth • Delay childbearing

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