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The Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM

The Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM. Helge Drange (Univ of Bergen) and the NorESM-team. Background. Oslo. Bergen. Aerosols, clouds and atmospheric chemistry CAM-based research. Bergen Climate Model (BCM) ARPEGE + MICOM 1 of 4 European (global) climate models used in IPCC AR4.

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The Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM

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  1. The Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM Helge Drange (Univ of Bergen) and the NorESM-team

  2. Background Oslo Bergen Aerosols, clouds and atmospheric chemistry CAM-based research Bergen Climate Model (BCM) ARPEGE + MICOM 1 of 4 European (global) climate models used in IPCC AR4 NorESM CCM4 but with (1) an isopycninc ocean model, (2) aerosols, aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions (CAM4-Oslo), and (3) HAMOCC

  3. Historical simulations 1850-2010

  4. Global temperature relative to 1850-1900 (°C, 5-yr filtered) Observed temperature Change in temperature (°C)

  5. Global temperature relative to 1850-1900 (°C, 5-yr filtered) Observed temperature Modelled temperature Change in temperature (°C)

  6. Global temperature relative to 1850-1900 (°C, 5-yr filtered) Full model Change in temperature (°C)

  7. Global temperature relative to 1850-1900 (°C, 5-yr filtered) Full model Greenhouse gasses only Change in temperature (°C)

  8. Global temperature relative to 1850-1900 (°C, 5-yr filtered) Full model Greenhouse gasses only Aerosols only Change in temperature (°C)

  9. Global temperature relative to 1850-1900 (°C, 5-yr filtered) Full model Greenhouse gasses only Aerosols only Volcanoes and sun only Change in temperature (°C)

  10. Climate sensitivity (Andrews et al., GRL, 2012)

  11. 3.37 K ± 0.83 K CMIP5: 2.1 – 4.7 K CMIP3: 2.1 – 4.4 K

  12. 21st century climate

  13. Radiative forcing in W m-2 RCPs RCP8.5 xxx(1370 CO2-eq) Reference scenarios RCP6.0 Xxx(850 CO2-eq) RCP4.5 xxx(650 CO2-eq) Mitigation scenarios RCP2.6 xxx(max 490 CO2-eq) Moss et al., Nature, 2010

  14. Change in global mean surface temperature (°C, relative to 1850-1900) Change in temperature (°C)

  15. Change in surface temperature, RCP8.5 (°C, 2090-99 vs 1961-90)

  16. Change in surface temperature, RCP4.5 (°C, 2090-99 vs 1961-90)

  17. Timing of Warming

  18. Time when ΔTlocal = +2 °C (yr, RCP8.5)

  19. Simulated precipitation

  20. Precipitation, 1850-2100 (mm/day)

  21. Change in precipitation, RCP8.5 (percent, 2080-99 vs 1961-90) DJF JJA

  22. Change in precipitation, RCP6.0 (percent, 2080-99 vs 1961-90) DJF JJA

  23. http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ As of 22 May 2012: 24 centres 45 model versions

  24. Observed and simulated sea ice

  25. Observed and simulated sea ice extent, year 2000 (fraction, observed, simulated) September March

  26. Observed and simulated sea ice extent, Sep (106 km2, ice edge at 15 percent concentration)

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