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Degrees to Hell .....

6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. S. X. Degrees to Hell. or. or. Four Years to a Prosperous Future. Six Degrees to Hell. o r. Four Years to a Prosperous Future. E. Ortega A. N. R. Costa. Laboratory of Ecological Engineering Food Engineering School State University of Campinas.

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Degrees to Hell .....

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  1. 6 5 4 3 2 1 S X DegreestoHell.....

  2. or or Four Years to a Prosperous Future

  3. Six Degrees to Hell or Four Yearsto aProsperous Future E. Ortega A. N. R. Costa Laboratory of Ecological Engineering Food Engineering School State University of Campinas

  4. Science since Babylon Progress of Science

  5. Mental Model The Expansion of Capitalism Economic Progress finds the best conditions to develop in production and distribution systems ruled by the free market where the reinvested profits make the labor and the capital increasingly productive Competitive advantage is attained when larger and more efficient factories produce more goods to be sold in a growing market

  6. Mental Model The Expansion of Capitalism • The Growth of the Gross Product (GNP) Maximizes the Human Welfare • Enterprises and Free Market Forces will Allocated People and Resources for a Better and Superior Use • The Concerns about the Environment Health are Important, but they Should Balance with the Requirements of the Economic Growth, if a High Way of Living is to be Kept • Each Event Regarding Scarcity of Resources Triggers the Development of Substitute Ones The Problems Cannot Be Solved Within the Boudaries of the Mentality that Generated Them Albert Einstein

  7. The Expansion of Capitalism Industrial Revolution Dual Economy Population and CO2 Concentration 1100 Years Labor (Consumer Goods) Exports ppm Linkages 10 1000 9 billion, 2050 8 800 Goods Desplacements of Craft Work Ripening Key Industries Sprouting Low Productivity Sectors High Productivity Sectors 6.5 billion, 2007 Labor (Capital) 6 600 CO2 Concentration World Population in Billions Multinacional Corporations Low Productivity Import Substitution High Productivity 4 400 Information Age 25,000 35 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Capitalists GWP Green Revolution 30 20,000 200 2 Profits 25 Industrial Revolution Flows of Goods and Labor During Dual Phase Economy Export Markets 15,000 20 Landlords Enlightenment Low Wages High Wages Source: Taylor, K. S. http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996 Profits CO2 Emissions (Megatonnes) GWP 1995 US$ Trillions) 15 10,000 1500 2100 2000 1900 1000 Rent Investment 10 Rent Production 5,000 5 Wages 0 0 1950 75 80 85 90 55 60 65 70 95 Temporary Key Phases of an Industrial Revolution Data Source: Adapted from Environment Canada Indicators Website Purchases Source: Taylor, K. S. http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996 Income/ Demand Workers Early Industrial Capitalism, with Landrents

  8. The Expansion of Capitalism Industrial Revolution * Does not Exist Naturally and is Human Generated

  9. The Expansion of Capitalism Industrial Revolution

  10. The Expansion of Capitalism Revolução Industrial Does not Exist Naturally and is Human Generated

  11. What and Who Makes the Weather? Lessons from the Past • Tectonic Causes • Landmass Distribution • Continental Drifts • Underseas Ridges Activity • Sea Floor Spreading • Astronomical Causes • Elliptical Orbit of the Earth • 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes • Wobble in Earth’s Orbit • 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5% • Solar Energy Output • 100,000 Year Cycle • Atmospheric Causes • Heat Retention • Greenhouse Effect • Solar Reflectivity • Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice Caps 700 Projected (2100) 650 Holocen Maximum Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere Are at a Higher Level than for 400,000 Years Vostok Ice Core Data National Geophysical Data Center 2 600 Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago 550 300 0 500 280 280 Change in Temperature (ºC) 450 Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide Little Ice Age 240 Carbon Dioxide (parts per million) -2 400 Current (2001) 220 350 200 -4 300 180 250 2 200 0 18 16 14 12 12 8 4 2 6 0 Thousands of Years Before Present -2 Today 300,000 200,000 100,000 400,000 Years before the Present Temperature (Deg. C +/- Normal) -4 Source: Co-operative Research Centre for Greenhouse Accounting, 2001 -6 -8 -10 0 80 100 60 160 40 120 140 20 Years Before Present (x 1000) What is their Value for the Future? What is the Present Condition?

  12. What and Who Makes the Weather? Lessons from the Past • Tectonic Causes • Landmass Distribution • Continental Drifts • Underseas Ridges Activity • Sea Floor Spreading • Astronomical Causes • Elliptical Orbit of the Earth • 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes • Wobble in Earth’s Orbit • 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5% • Solar Energy Output • 100,000 Year Cycle • Atmospheric Causes • Heat Retention • Greenhouse Effect • Solar Reflectivity • Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice Caps 700 Projected (2100) 650 HolocenMaximum CarbonDioxideConcentrations in theAtmosphere Are at a HigherLevelthan for 400,000 Years Vostok Ice Core Data NationalGeophysical Data Center 2 600 Note: CivilisationBegun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago 550 300 0 500 280 280 Change in Temperature (ºC) 450 Parts per MillionofCarbonDioxide Little Ice Age 240 CarbonDioxide (parts per million) -2 400 Current (2001) 220 350 200 -4 300 180 250 2 200 0 18 16 14 12 12 8 4 2 6 0 ThousandsofYearsBeforePresent -2 Today 300,000 200,000 100,000 400,000 YearsbeforethePresent Temperature (Deg. C +/- Normal) -4 Source: Co-operativeResearch Centre for GreenhouseAccounting, 2001 -6 -8 -10 0 80 100 60 160 40 120 140 20 YearsBeforePresent (x 1000) What is their Value for the Future? What is the Present Condition?

  13. The Present Impact SummaryofMainFindings Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature. Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.

  14. The Present Impact SummaryofMainfindings A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood. Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation. A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.

  15. The Present Impact Millions of Years Ago 0 600 200 400 2500 100 Extinction Rate (% of Families that Died Out ( ) Number of Families 2000 80 Number of Families ( ) Permian Extinctions Extinction Rate 60 1500 40 1000 Cretaceous Extictions 20 500 0 0 Carboniferous Ordovician Silurian Devonian Permian Cretaceous Jurassic Triassic Tertiary Cambrian Precambrian Paleozoic Mesozoic Ceno- zoic What is the Current Consensus? C 1999 Addison Wesley Longman Inc.

  16. The Future Impact SummaryofMainfindings More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments. More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments. Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change. Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.

  17. The Future Impact Summaryofmainfindings Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase. Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway. Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

  18. A Little Bit Warmer? Windows into a Changing World • Delphic Oracle? • Nostradamus Next Door? • Prophecies Already Coming True • A Secret Surviving Manual or a Global Warning? • Refuges in Arctic or Life a Little Bit Warmer? If 6 Degrees of Cooling Nearly Wiped Us in the Past, Might Six Degrees of Warming Have Similar Effect?

  19. Starting the Heating 6 5 4 3 2 1 1ºC

  20. The Heat Goes On 6 5 4 3 2 1 2ºC

  21. Feedback To The Hell 6 5 4 3 2 1 3ºC

  22. In To The Hell 6 5 4 3 2 1 4ºC

  23. Reborn in Hell 6 5 4 3 2 1 5ºC

  24. Anthropocene Mass Extinction 6 5 4 3 2 1 6ºC

  25. Is There a Climate Policy ? (*) Today’s Level is 380 ppm

  26. TheCosmic Perspective? Open Systems The Present Condition Imposes a Different and Urgent Vision

  27. Guiding the Future GiantShoulders? Odum Flannery Lovelock Lynas Forrester Cohen IPCC

  28. Dealing with a Changing Future MovingTargets The end of the future as is now believed

  29. The Dimensions of the Crisis Knowing the Truth

  30. Speed of Correction How Wide is the Window ?

  31. Conditions to (Re) Act Catalytic Self Organization

  32. Degraded Systems Endangered Zones Resilience and Homeostasis

  33. Healthy Systems Supporting Transition

  34. Pointing Places

  35. Local Strategies for Global Changes All Places All Levels

  36. Managing Changes What to Do? What Resources ?

  37. Science Guiding Light Finite Resources and Capacity of Adjustment

  38. Economy Pointing Arrow Revealing Exceeding Resources

  39. Emergy Modeling and Accounting

  40. Politics Talking into Consensus

  41. Technology Building Solutions

  42. Interactions Establishing Sinergy

  43. Future Around the Corner Who Leads the Establishment of a New Order ?

  44. A New Order Humans Ecosystems

  45. A New Order Energy Diagram Approach

  46. Possible Utopias Utopia 1: a place of ideal perfection in laws, government, and social conditions 2: an impractical scheme for social improvement The Merriam-Webster Dictionary, 2004

  47. Limitations Feasible Utopias

  48. States of Living Life Style Local Resources Size of the Planet

  49. References • http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, Accessed on may, the 5th 2008 – 22:38h

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