WE’RE NOT IN KANSAS ANY MORE: scientists, policymaking, and the future

1. WE’RE NOT IN KANSAS ANY MORE:scientists, policymaking, and the future Forum on Science Ethics & Policy (FOSEP) William H. Hooke April 25, 2006 AMS Policy Program

2. A roadmap for this talk • A Policy Primer • A “Cliffs- Notes” guide to the future • “Making a difference” in Oz AMS Policy Program

3. 1. What is policy? AMS Policy Program

4. a definite course or method of action selected from among alternatives and in light of given conditions to guide and determine present and future decisions policy: AMS Policy Program

5. honor your father and mother “…the American continents…are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers…” dress on Fridays shall be business casual some familiar examples: AMS Policy Program

6. separation: avoid crowding... alignment: match speed and direction... cohesion: move toward the average position… ...of local flockmates Another example: the steering behavior of “boids” AMS Policy Program

7. NSF mission (1950): To promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; and to secure the national defense… …support through grants and contracts… award graduate fellowships… foster the interchange of scientific information… evaluate status and needs of the various sciences and engineering... another example: “Congress shall have the power to…promote the progress of science and the useful arts” AMS Policy Program

8. Scientists in Kansas…the Vannevar Bush policy* • Curiosity driven • Scientists set priorities • Basic applied * Science The Endless Frontier: A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945 AMS Policy Program

9. To be effective… policy must reflect reality: Gravity – It’s not just a good idea, it’s the LAW! AMS Policy Program

10. But reality is changing rapidly… AMS Policy Program

11. …is outpacing our ability to formulate policy Rapid societal change… AMS Policy Program

12. 2. A “Cliffs Notes” Guide to the Future AMS Policy Program

13. The human race is on a roll AMS Policy Program

14. Population growth increase in per capita consumption of resources advance in technology in a short period of time... AMS Policy Program

15. 105 years computation 103 years 103 years 50 years AMS Policy Program

16. biotechnology 1400 years 50 years AMS Policy Program

17. 105 years transportation 104 years 100 years AMS Policy Program

18. a parenthesis…OK --So science and technology as a whole are moving forward...What about advances in the earth sciences? AMS Policy Program

19. assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is infinite climate is unchanging weather is unpredictable Throughout history,mankind has operated on three principles... AMS Policy Program

20. In the span of a century……meteorologists have shown... 1871-1916 1984-2003 AMS Policy Program

21. Not just locally… or regionally… but also globally. Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is finite... AMS Policy Program

22. The climate changes…sometimes abruptly AMS Policy Program

23. …and weather is more predictable than we’d thought… AMS Policy Program

24. Short compared with what? in a short period of time? AMS Policy Program

25. climate variability recurrence of extremes emergence of unintended consequences evidence of non-sustainability time required for society to internalize emerging understanding shortcompared with what? AMS Policy Program

26. …but we can draw broad inferences with a high degree of confidence The detailed implications of these trends are uncertain… AMS Policy Program

27. (adverse) climate variability natural extremes that will find us unprepared pervasive environmental/social catastrophes declining margins ineffective top-down coping strategies We can expect a future marked by... AMS Policy Program

28. Policy makers will be scrambling AMS Policy Program

29. 3. Making a difference in OZ AMS Policy Program

30. Planning Group on Natural and Human-Induced Hazards and Disasters “…research is needed on how to translate research findings about natural hazards and human behavior into policies that are effective in minimizing the human and economic costs of hazards…” International Council for Science (ICSU) AMS Policy Program

31. “…three crucial challenges to building scientific capacity…” “The first challenge … is the widening gap between advancing scientific knowledge and technology and society’s ability to capture and use them.” (from ICSU/CSPR Priority Area Assessment on Capacity Building in Science 2006) These ICSU concerns cut across all fields of science and technology… AMS Policy Program

32. “closing knowledge gaps will require developing national strategies for science and technology development that are linked with effective policies.” “There is a need to build national innovation systems.” (from ICSU/CSPR Priority Area Assessment on Capacity Building in Science 2006) ICSU Committee on Scientific Planning and Review AMS Policy Program

33. At China’s 2006 National Science and Technology Conference, president Hu Jintao pledged to make China an “innovation-oriented society.” The Chinese Academy of Sciences is reinventing itself through a “Knowledge Inovation Program.” The Chinese are moving out… AMS Policy Program

34. …the U.S. must follow suit. • American Competitiveness Initiative • Rising above the Gathering Storm AMS Policy Program

35. Technology transfer Decision support systems development Rapid prototyping Policy framework … We must work across a broad front AMS Policy Program

36. Policy issues are both specific… AMS Policy Program

37. deregulate electricity? AMS Policy Program

38. manage watersheds? AMS Policy Program

39. urbanize?build critical infrastructure? AMS Policy Program

40. Reconcile supply and demand for science Harness S&T rather than vice versa Order does matter Ethics …and general AMS Policy Program

41. Brain Courage Heart In summary, scientists have much to “offer” OZ … AMS Policy Program

42. Major earthquakes Sparta 464 B.C. Lamia 426 B.C. plague 430 B.C. (killed 1/3 to 2/3 population) returned three times helped lead to Athens’ defeat 404 B.C. The fall of ancient Athens AMS Policy Program

43. “In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society, but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free.” But consider this assessment... -- Edith Hamilton AMS Policy Program

44. For the past half-century, U.S. scientists have been allowed to work under a rather extraordinary social contract, premised on the notion that "curiosity driven" basic science would open up a cornucopia of social good. Arguably, such an approach has indeed brought many benefits to the humankind since World War II. However, the gap seems to be widening between the advance of science and technology, and society's ability to harness them. As the urgency and complexity of the challenges before us continue to grow, scientists can and should become more engaged in efforts to accelerate the payoff from our work. AMS Policy Program