Presentation Transcript

1. Reducing Serious Violent Crime: Lessons from PSN in the U.S.

   Edmund F. McGarrell Director and Professor School of Criminal Justice
2. Travel Rule #1 – Carry on the clothes you need
3. Why Share Lessons Between US & SA? Democratic governments Regional & global economic powers Committed to rule of law But High levels of violent crime Historic patterns racial conflict & injustice that complicate policing & justice system processes
4. The Promise Within U.S., evidence has accumulated over the last 15 years that can significantly reduce the most serious gun violence
5. Reducing Homicide Risk (Indianapolis) Note: Each trend is population specific for each graph presented above
6. Plan Briefly review this research evidence Present evidence from Project Safe Neighborhoods Discuss both the process (how) and the substance (why) of these violence reduction interventions Consider implementation issues - how to make it happen
7. Evidence-Based Strategies for Reducing Gun Crime Circa 1994
8. Promising Practices for Reducing Gun Crime, Circa 1999
9. Key Ingredients Use of analysis to understand & guide interventions Focused on specific problems (gun violence, high risk people, places, contexts) Focused deterrence Focus on high risk individuals, groups, contexts Risk communication strategy Steps to increase legitimacy, perceptions of fairness
10. Project Safe Neighborhoods National program to reduce gun crime (2001-2010) Built on these promising practices National program coordinated locally through U.S. Attorneys Offices (94 cover the U.S.)
11. PSN – Federal Program Adapted to Local Context Federal government will provide resources to local initiatives with following conditions: Must be focused on violent crime & homicide Must include a research & analysis component Must include partnerships beyond police & prosecutors
12. PSN Evaluation Challenges National, “full coverage,” program Uneven implementation Larger cities offer treatment and comparison sites but may have both citywide and targeted program components Smaller and medium cities – may be no logical comparison site Lack of consistent measures of gun crime across jurisdictions Variation in data availability (e.g., NIBRS vs. non-NIBRS)
13. PSN Impact – Stage One Series of site specific case studies Ten tests of impact on gun crime Reductions in gun crime in all ten sites (impact in two of these studies was equivocal)
14. PSN Impact – Stage Two Assess impact of PSN in all U.S. cities with populations of 100,000+ Trend in violent crime 2000-01 compared to 2002-06 Compare PSN target cities with non-target cities Compare cities by level of PSN implementation dosage (range 3-9)
15. Measuring Implementation Implementation Dosage Research integration Extent & quality partnerships Federal prosecution for gun crime
16. Overall Finding PSN target cities in high implementation districts experienced significant declines in violent crime in comparison to cities in low implementation districts and non-target cities
17. Violent Crime Trends in PSN Target Cities by Level Federal Prosecution High Prosecution
18. PSN Impact
19. PSN Impact
20. HGLM Models Being a target city and having a higher level of dosage was significantly related to a reduction in violent crime controlling for: Concentrated disadvantage Population density Police resources Correctional population Journal of Quantitative Criminology (2010) 26:165-190.
21. Promising Practices Some combination of focused deterrence, communication, data-driven problem solving, & linkage to opportunities, appears promising in reducing gun crime
22. 15 Years of Suggestive Evidence on Reducing Gun Crime Pre-PSN
23. Key Elements Process (how it works) Substance (why it works)
24. Process – Intelligence Led Problem Solving Strategic & tactical understanding of the gun crime problem in specific jurisdictions Highly focused Evidence-based Adaptive & self-correcting
25. Intelligence-led Problem Solving
26. Specific Strategies Enforcement Intervention/Prevention Direct linkage to services for at-risk populations Mentoring Street-level intervention Moral voice of community Community revitalization Chronic violent offender lists Call-in meetings Directed police patrol gun hot spots Smart prosecution Probation/parole home visits Focused warrant service
27. Risk-Based Strategies High Risk Low Risk
28. Balanced Strategies Focused and Fair
29. Caution - Although evidence shows it can work, it does not always do so Lack commitment and leadership Misdiagnosis Not focused Lack intensity or dosage Not sustained Declare victory Turnover
30. Lessons Learned – Cascading Implementation (vs. National Implementation) Assessing Capacity for Implementation Leadership & Commitment Prior Experience with Key Components Assess & Learn from Early Adopters while Building Capacity in other Locations