Climate Change - Making Predictions

1. Climate Change - Making Predictions • Climate modeling using current, historic data • Attempt to estimate probable carbon, pollutant emissions in the near future • Calculate effects of combined anthropogenic emissions on heat trapping… extend that to predictions of overall temperature change • Estimate effects of probable temperature change on global climate (rainfall, sea level rise, storms, etc…) • Estimate costs of climate change to human society, civilization http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/

2. IPCC Scenarios: A1 (A1FI, A1T, A1B) • A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. • Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. • The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis:fossil intensive (A1FI),non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).

3. IPCC Scenarios: A2 • A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. • Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. • Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

4. IPCC Scenarios: B1 • B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population as in A1, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter. • As in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. • The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

5. IPCC Scenarios: B2 • B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. • It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. • While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

6. IPCC TAR Projected Scenarios

7. IPCC 2007

8. IPCC 2007 Figure SPM.5

9. Figure SPM.6

10. Figure SPM.7 Projected percent changes in precipitation for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 using scenario A1B. Dec-Feb on left; Jun-Aug on right

11. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 Africa: • 75-250 million people experience increased water stress by 2020 • Severely compromised agricultural production (up to 50% reduction by 2020 in rain-fed agriculture in some areas); decrease in areas suitable for agriculture • Negative impact on food supplies due to decreasing fisheries in large lakes (made worse by overfishing) • One of the most vulnerable continents (multiple stresses, low adaptive capacity)

12. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 Asia: • Glacier melt causes increased flooding, rock avalanches, then decreased river flow as glaciers recede • Decreased freshwater availability likely to affect >1 billion people by 2050s • Greater risk of sea flooding, river flooding near mega-deltas • Up to 20% increase in crop yields in East, Southeast Asia, but offset by decrease up to 30% in Central, South Asia by 2050’s • Increased cholera, diarrhoeal disease, deaths due to floods, droughts, increased water temps

13. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 Australia, New Zealand: • Intensified water security problems • Loss of biodiversity in ecologically-rich sites (e.g. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland Wet Tropics, Kakadu Wetlands) • More coastal flooding, increased intensity/frequency of storms + sea level rise + more coastal development • Declining agriculture, forestry due to increased drought, fire; New Zealand initially benefits from longer growing season, increased rain • Human systems more adaptive than Asia, Africa; natural systems not

14. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 Europe: • Retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shifts in species ranges, health impacts (heat waves) already documented • Increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent coastal flooding • Increased erosion • Glacial retreat, reduced snow cover (loss of winter tourism) • Extensive species loss • Higher temps, increased droughts, reduced water availability, reduced hydro potential, reduced crop productivity, increased heat waves & wildfires in Southern Europe • Reduced demand for heating, higher crop yields, more forest growth in Northern Europe, but also more winter floods, endangered ecosystems

15. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 Latin America: • Increased temp, decrease in soil water leads to biodiversity loss, extinctions • Salinisation, desertification of agricultural land in drier areas • Decreased productivity of some important crops, live stock with adverse food security effects, but increased soybean yields • Increased flooding risk • Negative impact on water availability • Shifts in fish stocks; adverse effects on coral reefs

16. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 Polar Regions: • Reduction in thickness, extent of glaciers, ice sheets - detrimental effects on many organisms • Increased coastal erosion • Detrimental effects on traditional indigenous ways of life • Species invasions negatively impacts ecosystems • Reduced heating costs, more navigable northern sea routes

17. Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts IPCC WGII 2007 North America: • More winter flooding, reduced summer flows; more competition for water resources in west • Increased pests, diseases, fires in forested areas • Increased rain-fed agricultural productivity • Increased frequency, intensity, duration of heat waves • Increased stress on coastal communities

18. IPCC WGIII Assessment: • With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over next few decades • Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns can contribute climate change mitigation across all sectors; management practices can also have a positive role • Conservation • Energy efficiency • Transportation/urban planning • Industrial changes • Near-term health co-benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of actions to reduce GHG emissions can be substantial and may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs • New energy infrastructure in developing countries, upgrades of infrastructure in developed countries, policies to promote energy security can create opportunities to achieve GHG emission reduction with co-benefits of air pollution abatement, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, increased employment

19. IPCC WGIII Assessment: • Multiple mitigation options in transportation sector may be counteracted by growth; many barriers - consumer preferences, lack of policy frameworks • Energy efficiency options for new and existing buildings could considerably reduce CO2 with net economic benefit; manybarriers (availability of technology, financing, poverty, inherent design limitations), but also large co-benefits (improved air quality, social welfare, energy security) • Full use of available mitigation options for industrial sector is not being made in industrialized or developing nations- predominantly in energy intensive industries; barriers: slow capital turnover, lack of resources, old inefficient infrastructures • Agricultural practices can make a significant contribution at low cost to increasing soil C sink, reducing GHG emissions, contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use

20. IPCC WGIII Assessment: • Forest-related mitigation activities (reducing deforestation in tropics) can considerably reduce emissions from sources & increase CO2 removals by sinks at low costs; possible co-benefits: employment, biodiversity/watershed conservation, renewable energy supply • Post-consumer waste small GHG contribution, but improved waste management could contribute GHG mitigation at low cost & promote sustainable development; co-benefits of improved public health, soil protection, local energy supply; barrier: lack of expertise • Geo-engineering solutions (ocean fertilization, blocking sunlight in upper atmosphere) still speculative, unproven, risk of unknown side-effects, cost unknown

21. IPCC WGIII Assessment: • Stabilization of GHGs requires emissions to peak AND DECLINE • Lower stabilization requires peak and decline to occur more quickly • Mitigation efforts over next 20-30 years will have a large impact on our ability to achieve lower stabilization levels • Range of IPCC stabilization level assessments can be achieved with EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES & technologies to be commercialized in coming decades; assumes APPROPRIATE, EFFECTIVE incentives for development, acquisition, deployment, diffusion of technologies • Energy efficiency is key • More renewable, nuclear energy • CO2 capture and storage • 2050 costs for CO2 stabilization of 710-445 ppm: +1% to -5.5% in global GDP (highly variable among countries)