The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing: The past, present and future research agenda

1. The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing:The past, present and future research agenda Professor James Nazroo University College London

2. Research team International Centre for Health and Society, UCL Institute for Fiscal Studies and UCL National Centre for Social Research plus researchers from Cambridge, Oxford, Nottingham Funding from NIA and UK government departments The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

3. Impacts of an ageing population? Does older age necessarily equate with: • Illness and physical dependency - a crisis in health care; • Poverty and financial dependency - a pension crisis; • Not having a role in society and social isolation; • Being dissatisfied? ‘A looming catastrophe, as populations top-heavy with frail, retired elderly drain pension and social security funds, overwhelm health care systems, and rely for support on a dwindling working-age population.’

4. Full-time Part-time Self-employed Labour force participation among older men Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996

5. Cohort differences in income (1996 prices) Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996

6. Total population aged 65+ was 26.9m Total population aged 65+ was 30.8m Total population aged 65+ was 33.7m (Projected) Total population aged 65+ was 34.1m Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus) Manton et al. 1997

7. The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing • Examination of and the relationships between: • Health • Economic position and activity • Social participation, productivity, networks and support • Need for longitudinal data to understand these relationships over time and across cohorts • Need for data relevant to current policy questions • ELSA will produce a database that can be used to tackle key policy and scientific questions; and that is accessible to and meets the needs of the research and policy communities

8. ELSA broad questionnaire coverage • Housing • Household income • Wealth • Pensions and retirement • Employment status and job characteristics • Consumption • Psychosocial factors and well-being • Social participation • Expectations for the future • Links to geographical and administrative data • Demographics • Self-assessed health • Diagnosed disease and symptoms • ADLs and IADLS • Eyesight, hearing, pain, falls • Mental health • Cognitive function • Quality of received medical care • Health behaviours • Performance measures • Biomedical measures

9. ELSA sample design • Sample is approximately 11,500 people born before 1st March 1952 who are in the private household sector at baseline. • Sample drawn from HSE (1998, 1999,2001) - HSE measures form ELSA baseline. • Sample also includes spouses outside the age range and partners who joined the household since the HSE baseline (giving 12,100 cases in total). • Those incapable of doing the interview have a proxy interview. • Interviewed every two years, with a biomedical assessment every four years. • Exit interviews will be carried out with the partners or carers of people who died after wave 1.

10. 1998, 1999 and 2000 Oct 2000 to Feb 2002 March 2002 to Feb 2003 March 2003 to March 2004 April 2004 to March 2005 March 2005 to Sept 2005 HSE fieldwork Development work Wave 1 fieldwork Preparation of data for archiving Analysis of data (Wave 1 report end 2003) Development of wave 2 Wave 2 ELSA fieldwork, including nurse visit Data archiving (deposited summer 2004) Preparation of wave 2 data for archiving Analysis and reporting of data Development of further waves ELSA timetable for waves 1 and 2

11. Some ELSA wave 1 findings Marmot, M., Banks, J., Blundell, R., Lessof, C. and Nazroo, J. (2003) Health, wealth and lifestyles of the older population in England: The 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, London: The Insititute for Fiscal Studies www.ifs.org.uk/elsa

12. Self-assessed health: women Source: Marmot et al. 2003

13. Health outcomes and class Source: Marmot et al. 2003

14. Fair/poor self reported health, wealth and age Source: Marmot et al. 2003

15. The distribution of financial wealth Aged 60-74 only Within age groups deciles Source: Marmot et al. 2003

16. Economically inactive by age and wealth quintile: men Source: Marmot et al. 2003

17. Retired by age and private pension type(Men with private pensions) Source: Marmot et al. 2003

18. Membership of organisations by class: men Source: Marmot et al. 2003

19. Plans for the next funding cycle • Proposal now under review • Content of core data collection • Modelled on wave 1 and wave 2 instruments • Will need to reflect national policy agenda and changes in this • Will be influenced by international policy agenda and how this is being taken on by the studies collaborating with ELSA (HRS, SHARE etc.) • Additions to core ELSA data collection: • Wave 3 (2006), life history interview • Wave 4 (2008), nurse visit • Experimental/development work at each wave (e.g. well-being, vignettes, consumption, new biomedical and genetic measures)

20. October 2005 to March 2006 April 2006 to Feb 2007 March 2007 to March 2008 April 2008 to March 2009 April 2009 to April 2010 April 2010 on Development work Wave 3 fieldwork, including retrospective Preparation of data for archiving, analysis etc. Wave 4 ELSA fieldwork, including nurse visit Preparation of data for archiving, analysis etc. Future funding for wave 5 onwards Timetable for next funding cycle (waves 3 and 4)

21. The research questions: some examples • The nature and timing of retirement and post-retirement labour market activity. • The determinants of economic well-being in older age. • Cognitive function and its impact on decision making among older people. • Disability and the compression of morbidity. • Economic, social and health inequalities in an ageing population. • Social participation and social productivity at older ages.