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Detection and Monitoring of Agricultural Drought for Famine Early Warning

Detection and Monitoring of Agricultural Drought for Famine Early Warning. James Verdin USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science verdin@usgs.gov. Agricultural Drought Monitoring. S upport to USAID Food for Peace Across Multiple Time Scales: Current season…. Season ahead….

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Detection and Monitoring of Agricultural Drought for Famine Early Warning

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  1. Detection and Monitoring of Agricultural Droughtfor Famine Early Warning James Verdin USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science verdin@usgs.gov

  2. Agricultural Drought Monitoring • Support to USAID Food for Peace • Across Multiple Time Scales: • Current season…. • Season ahead…. • Climate change….

  3. Agricultural Drought Monitoring • Livelihood systems are based on subsistence agriculture and/or pastoralism, and are highly drought-sensitive • Conventional climate station networks are sparse and/or late reporting • Satellite remote sensing and models fill the gap, and provide the basis for early detection of agricultural drought

  4. Agricultural Drought Monitoring

  5. Agricultural Drought Monitoring Water from Snow Pack Models are needed to fill in spatially and provide homogeneous historical time-series

  6. 2010/11 rainfall compared to historical totals since 1950/51 in select pastoral areas of Kenya and Ethiopia Declaration of Worst Drought in 60 Years Chris Funk, USGS Source: FEWS NET

  7. FEWS NET Monitoring B C A Timor Leste Current monitoring domains: A, B, C Red – Presence countries Yellow – Remote agroclimatic AND availability/access monitoring Green – Remote agroclimatic monitoring only

  8. Food Security Outlooks Current FS status Climate Forecasts Livelihoods Regional & National FSO Scenario’s & Updates Other info: Trade, Conflicts, Health… Seasonal Calendar

  9. 20th Century Global Surface Temperatures and Indian Ocean SSTs Rising in Tandem(Same “hockey-stick” rise since 1980) Anticipated change in rainfall (as percent) More agricultural drought lies ahead

  10. Thank you

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