Understanding the Foreign Exchange Market: International Finance & Trade

1. Chapter 20 The Foreign Exchange Market

2. Why foreign exchange market • International finance • International trade • Currency conversion  domestic currency exchanged for foreign currency • Exchange rate affects domestic price and demand, i.e, inflation, production, et al

3. Foreign Exchange I Exchange rate: price of one currency in terms of another Direct Quote - U.S. $ / foreign currency unit. Indirect Quote - Foreign currency unit / $. Foreign exchange market: the financial market where exchange rates are determined Spot transaction: immediate (two-day) exchange of bank deposits Spot exchange rate Forward transaction: the exchange of bank deposits at some specified future date Forward exchange rate (1, 3, 6 month(s))

4. Foreign Exchange Rate

5. Foreign Exchange II Currency value fluctuation Appreciation: a currency rises in value relative to another currency Depreciation: a currency falls in value relative to another currency When a country’s currency appreciates, the country’s goods abroad become more expensive and foreign goods in that country become less expensive Over-the-counter market Dealer are primarily banks Trade deposits

6. US Dollar – China Yuan

7. FIGURE 1 Exchange Rates, 1990–2008 Source: Federal Reserve: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/hist.

8. Exchange Rates in the Long Run Law of one price Identical good Little transaction costs/trade barrier  Same price Theory of Purchasing Power Parity: Application of the law of one price However, many goods and services are not traded across borders

9. Exchange Rates in the Long Run Real exchange rate The rate at which domestic goods can be exchanged for foreign goods (rather than currency) Big Mac Index An informal measure of PPP published by The Economist A basket of goods

10. Exchange Rates in the Long Run http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/07/big-mac-index

11. FIGURE 2 Purchasing Power Parity, United States/United Kingdom, 1973–2008 (Index: March 1973 = 100.) Source: ftp.bls.gov/pub/special/requests/cpi/cpiai.txt. 1, Price of goods (CPI) – Exchange rate 2, Long run – short run

12. Factors that Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run Reasoning: demand for domestic goods increasing the value of domestic currency Factors: Relative price levels of goods Price , Demand , Currency  Trade barriers (Tariff and Quotas) Barrier , Demand , Currency  Preferences for domestic versus foreign goods Productivity

13. Summary Table 1 Factors That Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run

14. Exchange Rates in the Short Run: A Supply and Demand Analysis An exchange rate is the price of domestic assets in terms of foreign assets Supply curve for domestic assets Assume amount of domestic assets is fixed (supply curve is vertical) Demand curve for domestic assets Most important determinant is the relative expected return of domestic assets At lower current values of the dollar (everything else equal), the quantity demanded of dollar assets is higher

15. FIGURE 3 Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market US as home country

16. Explaining Changes in Exchange Rates Supply curve fixed Shifts in the demand for domestic assets Depending on the expected return of dollar-dominated assets (U.S as home country) Domestic interest rate (dollar deposits) Foreign interest rate (foreign deposits) Expected future exchange rate

17. FIGURE 4 Response to an Increase in the Domestic Interest Rate, iD

18. FIGURE 5 Response to an Increase in the Foreign Interest Rate, iF

19. FIGURE 6 Response to an Increase in the Expected Future ExchangeRate, Eet+1

20. FIGURE 7 Effect of a Rise in the Domestic Interest Rate as a Result of an Increase in Expected Inflation

21. Summary Table 2 Factors That Shift the Demand Curve for Domestic Assets and Affect the Exchange Rate

22. Application: Changes in the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Changes in Interest Rates When domestic real interest rates raise, the domestic currency appreciates. When domestic interest rates rise due to an expected increase in inflation, the domestic currency depreciates. Changes in the Money Supply A higher domestic money supply causes the domestic currency to depreciate.

23. Application: Changes in the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Exchange Rate Overshooting Monetary Neutrality In the long run, a one-time percentage rise in the money supply is matched by the same one-time percentage rise in the price level Money supply – no effect on interest rate in the long run The exchange rate falls by more in the short run than in the long run (overshooting) Helps to explain why exchange rates exhibit so much volatility

24. FIGURE 8 Effect of a Rise in the Money Supply Short run: 1. Money supply , -> price , Result: exchange rate ; 2. Money supply , -> domestic interest rate , -> domestic asset return  Result: exchange rate ; Long run: Interest rate goes back (M.S no effect on interest)

25. Application: Why exchange rate so volatile? Expected appreciation/depreciation of currency Expected change of price level, inflation, trade barrier, productivity Focus on assets rather than goods

26. FIGURE 9 Value of the Dollar and Interest Rates, 1973–2008 Sources: Federal Reserve: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/indexn_m.txt; real interest rate from Figure 1 in Chapter 4. • Real interest rate – effective exchange rate • Nominal interest rate

27. Application: The Subprime Crisis and the Dollar During 2007 interest rates fell in the United States and remained unchanged in Europe. The dollar depreciated Starting in the summer of 2008 interest rated fell in Europe. Increased demand for U.S. Treasuries “flight to quality” The dollar appreciated

28. Application: The Subprime Crisis and the Dollar