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TEPPC Hydro Data Update 9/12/11

TEPPC Hydro Data Update 9/12/11. Christie Dennis. 2005 Data Summary – Median Hydro. CA Data set complete – ready for review New HTC K value/p factor calculations for improved modeling K values derived from 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2010 generation/load data

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TEPPC Hydro Data Update 9/12/11

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  1. TEPPC Hydro Data Update9/12/11 Christie Dennis

  2. 2005 Data Summary – Median Hydro • CA • Data set complete – ready for review • New HTC K value/p factor calculations for improved modeling • K values derived from 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2010 generation/load data • Reviewed HTC plants, cut some out based on poor K, R2 and added some • Added – King River (Average K = 2.32, Average R2 = 0.29) • Removed – Devil Canyon (Average K = 0.95 ,Average R2 = 0.19) • NW • Data set complete – ready for review • Big 4 plants • K values derived from 1999, 2001-2003, 2005-2010, adjusted for wind reserves • New HTC plants • Mossyrock, Oxbow, Pelton, Ross • East • Data set complete – ready for review • New HTC plants • Hoover, Blue Mesa • Alberta • Data set complete – ready for review • New HTC plants • Bow River, Brazeau, Bighorn

  3. CA K value adjustments • Averaging several water years smoothes K value – lower standard deviation • 2022 – 2002, 2003, 2005, 2010 • 2020 – 2002, 2003, 2005

  4. CA K value adjustments • Improved standard deviations in nearly all cases

  5. NW K value adjustments • Averaging several water years smoothes K value – lower standard deviation • 2022 – 1999, 2001-2003, 2005-2010 • 2020 – 1999, 2002, 2003, 2006

  6. NW K value adjustments • Improved standard deviations in all cases

  7. CA HTC plants • Big Creek (K Ave = 1.21 ) • Big Creek 1, 2, 2A, 3, 4, 8; Mammoth Pool • King River (K Ave = 2.32 ) • Balch 2, Haas, Pine Flat • Mokelumne River (K Ave = 1.14 ) • Collierville, Electra, Salt Springs, Tiger Creek • North Feather River (K Ave = 1.52, 2.05 ) • Belden, Poe, Rock Creek, Butt Valley, Caribou 1 & 2 • Pit 4, JB Black (K Ave = 1.94 ) • Pit 5 (K Ave = 1.55 ) • Pit 6 & 7 (K Ave = 1.97 ) • SMUD (K Ave = 2.70 ) • Camino, Jaybird, Loon Lake, Union Valley, White Rock

  8. NW additions, East, Alberta HTC plants • Mossyrock(K Ave = 3.52, R2 Ave = 0.47 ) • Oxbow (K Ave = 1.75, R2 Ave = 0.23 ) • Pelton(K Ave = 2.39, R2 Ave = 0.50 ) • Ross (K Ave = 2.81, R2 Ave = 0.31 ) • Hoover (K Ave = 2.69, R2 Ave = 0.45 ) • Blue Mesa (K Ave = 5.0, R2 Ave = 0.28 ) • Bow River (K Ave = 5.0, R2 Ave = 0.6 ) • Brazeau(K Ave = 6.0, R2 Ave = 0.45 ) • Bighorn (K Ave = 2.44, R2 Ave = 0.21 )

  9. 2010 Hindcast Data • CA • Aggregate data collected • EIA data collected, incomplete until sometime in the Fall • Can use aggregate/roll up methodology developed for 2005 dataset • NW • COE plant data collected and formatted • EIA plant data collected, not complete until the Fall • K values, p factors calculated • East • EIA plant data collected, not complete until the Fall • East hard data collected

  10. 2001 Data – Low Hydro • CA • No aggregate data collected • EIA data collected • No CVP data • NW • COE plant data collected • EIA/plant data collected • K values, p factors calculated • East • EIA plant data collected • Data collected from Sam Loftin

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