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Data &Risk analysis CRM tools Advisory tools preparation

Data &Risk analysis CRM tools Advisory tools preparation. DR PASHUPALAK. Data &Risk analysis District- Khurdha, Angul Crops- Rice and groundnut Weather Daily data from 1969 for kurdha For Angol for 10 years Crop data rice – 1981 onwards block level

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Data &Risk analysis CRM tools Advisory tools preparation

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  1. Data &Risk analysis • CRM tools • Advisory tools preparation

  2. DR PASHUPALAK • Data &Risk analysis District- Khurdha, Angul Crops- Rice and groundnut Weather Daily data from 1969 for kurdha For Angol for 10 years Crop data rice – 1981 onwards block level Groundnut data- for 10 years, district level Soil data, Ph, NPK for block level, WHC, soil texture, irrigation % land type (district level) Need – missing climate data, Onset of Monsoon Heat wave in April to June 15 , Heavy rainfall in Monsoon leading to flood. October rainfall December rainfall rain for rabi crops, Dry spell wet spell analysis

  3. CRM tools Have --Crop calendar (rice), water balance (Bhuvaneshwar), soil moisture, infocrop, NEED Risk analysis, crop impact analysis, DSSAT, weather manager • Advisory tools preparation Already giving to kurdha, radio tv, website, contact farmers, other district other univ scientist, in touch with NGOs Need- contact farmers, phone, hard copy., feedback from NGOs and contact farmers, capacity building of farmers and NGOs, Benchmark survey of farmers perception and existing risk management knowledge

  4. Dr H.S. KUSHWAHA • Data &Risk analysis UDHAMSINGH NAGAR IN UTTARAKHAND Rice after wheat Rice-wheat crop rotation Weather- for location weather data not avialable Crop data rice for both wheat – more than 35 years university farm data- 10,000 acre farm District level yield data for 30-35 year Soil data Representative sample soil physical chemical and biological properties data is avialable, tarai soils Need – Extrapolate data 35 km away? Climate risk analysis for losses due to heavy rains, flooding and submergence for longer times (Himalyan region) Soil remains moist (in case monsoon prolongs )so delay in wheat sowing. Soils are very high ground water table. Good quality of water, reduces the number of irrigation. In October, if there is decrease in max temp decrease by 2 degrees sterility in rice increases. How to adjust?

  5. Fog in january, number of fog days are more -25 days can not see sun, Min temp as low as 0.2 degrees 15 feb to 15 march risk- if rains for 1-2 brings temp good for crop but if there is light rain followed by cloudy weather for 1 -2 week causes pest and disease in wheat crop. Yield reduction by 10-15 %. This is followed by increase in temp in first fortnight of March causes seed shrinkage reduces yield by 15 % • Crm tools Have -- 5 years moving average analysis, CERES rice model, ESPAW model test, DSSAT for rice, Crop calendar, water balance, soil moisture,

  6. Need- NEED Detailed climate analysis, Risk analysis, systematic and quantitative analysis Quantitative amount of rainfall and temperature trend forecast 15-30 days in advance for effective benefit of farmers Tools for statistical analysis , GIS and remote sensing tools, Capacity building scientists • Advisory tools preparation • Advice for 18 years, block is different, less flooding problem, Mechanism for exact climate forecast 15- 30 days advance. Set of common questionnaire for collection of a) socio-economic data b) major constraint and thrust through PRA c) economic impact • Effective and timely dissemination- advanced telecommunication system and transport

  7. Dr K.K. AGRAWAL (PI) and DR UPS BHADAURIA (co PI) • Data &Risk analysis Jabalpur (Madhya Pradesh) 30 km from HQ Rice in kharif and chickpea / wheat in rabi. In two locations one irrigated and another rainfed Weather- 1968 onwards Crop data rice for both wheat – all crop 1968 onwards district level data , university data ? Soil data Representative sample soil physical chemical properties data is available Need – continuous rain in June – problem of sowing because soils are vertisol. So farmers practice dry sowing before onset Dry spells are common in July and August. Early withdrawal of monsoon crop has moisture stress and sowing of rabi crops is affected

  8. Risk in Rabi crops- Frost major problem to pulse crop Dec end and first wk of Jan. sudden rise in temp in February affects the crop at reproductive phase- reduce duration, shrinkage in seed size 10-20 % loss in yield for wheat, chick pea, Biotic stress- Heliothis in chick pea- temp. raise, cloudy weather for more than week in December –january the risk increases, fusarium wilt and collor and root rot – to be related to Crm tools Have –Trend lines, climatic and rainfall characterization of many districts, not much experience in crop models, NEED all set of CRM tools, GIS and remote sensing tools, Capacity building scientists Advisory tools preparation • More than 15 years in the district, (with other location), • Set of common questionnaire for collection of a) socio-economic data b) major constraint and thrust through PRA c) economic impact • Effective timely dissemination- advanced telecommunication system and transport

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