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Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMC Status, Tools, & Process

Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMC Status, Tools, & Process. Zac Adelman Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development. WRAP Technical Oversight Committee - Denver, CO July 29-30, 2008. WRAP RMC Structure. UC-Riverside, CE-CERT Gail Tonnesen (RMC Project Manager)

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Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMC Status, Tools, & Process

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  1. Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMCStatus, Tools, & Process Zac Adelman Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development WRAP Technical Oversight Committee - Denver, CO July 29-30, 2008

  2. WRAP RMC Structure • UC-Riverside, CE-CERT • Gail Tonnesen (RMC Project Manager) • Project and contract management • Meteorology, emissions, air quality modeling • Data analysis and model development • Computing system and data management • ENVIRON, Corp. • Ralph Morris • Meteorology, emissions, air quality modeling • Data analysis and emissions model development • Emission inventory development • UNC, Institute for the Environment • Zac Adelman • Emissions modeling and data analysis

  3. RMC Modeling Challenges • Large scale data collection/collation effort • Missing and/or deficient emission inventories • e.g. wildfire, dust, anthropogenic ammonia, commercial shipping • Complexities in applying the available modeling and analysis tools to meet WRAP needs • Data management and storage requirements • Modeling system development and management • Computing system development, management, and maintenance • Technical outreach and modeling support Goal: Address these issues with the next generation set of modeling tools

  4. The Evolution of RMC Modeling • Modeling infrastructure development (personnel, hardware, software) • Identify and understand key scientific issues • Tool development • Application • Reporting and documentation

  5. State of the Modeling Systems • Air Quality Modeling system components • Meteorology • Emissions • Chemistry-Transport • Data analysis/Visualization • Model distribution portals • NCAR: emissions, meteorology, CTM, analysis • CMAS: emissions, CTM, analysis • U.S. EPA • Primary developers • EPA does not prescribe specific models or approaches

  6. State of the Modeling Systems • Emissions • Refine existing processes, add new sources/processes • Integrate with databases, improve performance and transparency • Chemistry-Transport • Chemistry improvements, SOA models, PM dynamics • Probing tools • Meteorology • Integrated Met-Chem • Analysis/Case Management • Java visualization tools • Integrated database-statistical analysis programs • Emissions sensitivity and simulation tracking frameworks • Documentation • Inline, online, user’s guides, science documents, primary literature

  7. Modeling System StatusEmissions • SMOKE (http://www.smoke-model.org) • Current release version: 2.4 (March, 2008) • air toxics, EDMS (FAA) interface, BEIS3.13 • Developer: UNC-IE • Next release: minor bug fixes (Late, 2008) • CONCEPT (http://www.conceptmodel.org) • Current release version: 0.60 (March, 2005) • link-based mobile, stationary area, point processing • Developers: Alpine Geophysics, ENVIRON, UCR • Next release: • MEGAN (http://acd.ucar.edu/~guenther/MEGAN/MEGAN.htm) • Current release version: 2.04 (October, 2007) • Biogenic emissions, high resolution land-cover, SOA precursors • Developer: NCAR-ACD • Next release:

  8. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ (http://www.cmaq-model.org) • Current release version: 4.6 (October, 2007) • air toxics, CB-05, aerosol chemistry updates, carbon and sulfate tracking • Developer: US EPA-ORD • Next release: 4.7 (October, 2008) • SOA model enhancements • isoprene SOA, sesquiterpene SOA, polymerization, acid-catalyzed SOA, NOx-dependent SOA yields, and updates to dHvap • In-cloud SOA formation pathways • Gas-phase mechanism improvements for SOA precursors • Coarse PM • Semi-volatile inorganic aerosol components can condense and evaporate from the coarse mode via dynamic mass transfer • Nonvolatile sulfate can condense on the coarse mode • Water is allowed to exist in the coarse mode determined by equilibrium with ambient RH • Variable standard deviation of coarse mode size distribution

  9. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ cont’ • Version 4.7 Updates • Aerosols (misc) • Gamma N2O5 updates to heterogeneous reaction • Re-derived parameterization based on Davis et al. (2008) • Chemistry • HONO enhancements • Heterogeneous reaction on aerosol and ground surfaces • Emissions from mobile sources • Photolysis module • In-line calculation, with aerosol feedback (optional) • Satellite cloud data (optional) • Aqueous Chemistry • Update Henry's Law constants • SOA Production (Glyoxyl, methylglyoxyl chemistry) • Add Cl2 chemistry to base CB05 mechanism

  10. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ cont’ • Version 4.7 Updates • Dry Deposition • Move calculation to CMAQ (optional) • Bi-directional NH3 sfc flux (optional) • Emissions • Biogenic emissions • Move BEIS into CMAQ (optional) • Add sesquiterpene emissions • Move Plume-rise into CMAQ (optional) • Sea-salt emissions • Spatial Allocator to produce ocean file • Update flux parameterizations & surf zone emissions

  11. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ cont’ • Version 4.7 Updates • Other upgrades to v4.7 • Multi-pollutant model (aero5) • Ozone, PM, Hg, air toxics, visibility, Cl… • Carbon apportionment model • Sulfate tracking model Capability • Direct Decoupled Method (DDM) • Updates for new aerosol

  12. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ cont’ • Beyond version 4.7 • Two-way Coupled WRF/CMAQ • Feedbacks from the chemistry model to the meteorological model • High time resolution data exchange • Chemistry/transport/deposition calculations on-line (and fully synchronized) with meteorological calculations • Alternative gas-phase chemical mechanisms • SAPRC-2007 • RACM2 • Aerosols • Speciation of fine soil, non-carbon organic matter • Source Apportionment of PMother • Clouds • Rosenbrock solver for aqueous chemistry • Grell sub-grid cloud module • Dry Deposition • Mosaic land-use approach • NLCD

  13. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • MCIP (http://www.cmaq-model.org) • Current release version: 3.3 (October, 2007) • air toxics, aerosol chemistry updates, carbon and sulfate tracking • Developer: US EPA-ORD • Next release: 3.4 (October, 2008) • Support for UAH satellite processing (if invoked by the user) • Support for WRF urban canopy model (if used in WRF) • Updates for WRFv3 (released April 2008). • Support for 33-category USGS land use (if used in WRF) • Five new air toxic dry deposition velocities • 2-m mixing ratio in METCRO2D (for verif/eval)

  14. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • MCIP cont’ • Version 3.4 Updates • New specification of WRF header variables for I/O API. (XCENT, YCENT, XORIG, YORIG) • User-definable earth radius (hidden, via namelist). Default matches MM5 & WRF defaults • Slight change to MM5 vertical coordinate definition (Jacobian, etc.) by adjusting constants to match MM5 • Improved support for PX and NOAH LSMs, particularly for WRF • Output TKE from MM5/WRF (if available) • Additional metadata in output (nudging coeffs, earth radius)

  15. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ-AMSTERDAM (http://www.cmascenter.org) • Next generation MADRID sectional aerosol model • Release: TBD (fall 2008?) • Developer: AER, Inc. • Also includes APT plume-in-grid • CMAQ-DDM (http://www.cmaq-model.org) • Current release version: CMAQv4.7 (October, 2008) • Developer: Georgia Tech • Technique to determine the sensitivity of a CTM to emissions changes; alternative to brute force sensitivities

  16. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CMAQ-Adjoint (http://people.cs.vt.edu/~asandu/Software/CMAQ_ADJ) • Current release version: CMAQv4.5 • Developer: Virginia Tech, CalTech, U. of Houston • 4-D gas-phase chemical data assimilation • CMAQ-TSSA • Current release version: CMAQv4.3 and 4.4 • Developer: UC-Riverside • Tagged-species source apportionment • Hemispheric CMAQ • Current release version: In development • Developer: UNC-IE • Emissions and chemistry updates for proof-of-concept approach to use CMAQ as an alternative to GCMs for BCs to continental-scale simulations

  17. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CAMx(http://www.camx.com) • Developer: ENVIRON, Corp. • Current release version: 4.5.1 (May 22, 2008) • Ozone, PM, visibility, mercury and air toxics “one-atmosphere” photochemical grid modeling system • Two-way grid nesting • Plume-in-Grid (PiG) • CB05, CB-IV, SAPRC chemistry • RADM aqueous-phase chemistry • ISORROPIA aerosol thermodynamics • “Probing Tools” • Ozone (OSAT) and PM (PSAT) source apportionment • Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) • Process Analysis (PA) • Reactive Tracer (RTRAC)

  18. Modeling System StatusAir Quality • CAMx version 4.5.1 cont’ • New Features • Updated SOA module • SOA from sesquiterpenes and isoprene • Polmerization of SOA • New biogenic SOA precursors generated by MEGAN biogenic emissions model • Updated PiG module • Full chemistry in PiG • Gaussian pluff distribution • Subgrid-scale receptor grid for sampling live puffs • CAMx next release (Fall, 2008) • Higher Order DDM (HDDM) • Chemistry Updates

  19. Modeling System StatusIntegrated Meteorology-Chemistry • 2-way coupling, chemical feedbacks to meteorology • WRF-Chem (http://ruc.fsl.noaa.gov/wrf/WG11/public.htm) • Current release version: Version 3.0 (April, 2008) • Developers: NCAR et al, • Meteorology, emissions, chemistry parameterizations • WRF-CMAQ (http://www.cmaq-model.org) • Release: CMAQv4.7 (2009) • Developer: US EPA/ORD • Full CMAQ CTM tightly coupled to WRF

  20. Modeling System StatusMeteorology • MM5 (http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5) • Current release version: 3-7 (December, 2004) • Developer: PSU, NCAR • No longer in development, still widely used for driving CTMs • WRF (http://www.wrf-model.org) • Current release version: 3.0 (April, 2008) • Developer: NCAR et al. • Development in 2 cores • Advanced Research WRF (ARW) • Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) • Current multi-scale meteorology model supported through NCAR

  21. Modeling System StatusVisualization • PAVE(http://www.cmascenter.org) • Current release version: 2.3 (August, 2005) • Developer: UNC-IE • No longer in development • VERDI(http://www.verdi-tool.org) • Current release version: 1.03 (May, 2008) • Developer: Argonne NL • Java replacement to PAVE • IDV(http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/) • Current release version: 2.5 • Developer: NCAR • Java integrated 3-d visualization system

  22. Modeling System StatusAnalysis • AMET(http://www.cmascenter.org) • Current release version: 1.1 (May, 2005) • Developer: US EPA/ORD • Meteorology and air quality observation database with utilities for computing model performance statistics and graphics • BENMAP (http://www.benmap-model.org) • Current release version: 2.4.8 (October, 2008) • Developer: US EPA • Uses gridded CTM output to calculate health and economic impacts

  23. Modeling System StatusSensitivity and Case Management • EMF • URL: TBD • Current release version: not yet released, soliciting pilot sites • Developers: EPA/OAQPS, UNC-IE • Emissions data and case management framework; work in progress to extend to CMAQ • CoST • Current release version: not yet released • Developer: UNC-IE • Calculates costs/economic impacts of emissions control strategies and manages emissions sensitivities

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