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The 2002/3 Season in South Africa

The 2002/3 Season in South Africa. Complex stresses, complex warnings & responses. Emma Archer and Gina Ziervogel. Ackn : SEI, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, NOAA-OGP, USAID. The big picture for 2002/3…. SADC region experienced state of ‘complex crisis’

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The 2002/3 Season in South Africa

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  1. The 2002/3 Season in South Africa Complex stresses, complex warnings & responses Emma Archer and Gina Ziervogel Ackn: SEI, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, NOAA-OGP, USAID

  2. The big picture for 2002/3… • SADC region experienced state of ‘complex crisis’ • In South Africa, dry summer rainfall season with substantial impacts • Will view at the national and district level • Despite improved warning & response support measures; constrained response & adaptation • What went wrong ?

  3. At the national level in South Africa • Limpopo Province: widespread livestock mortalities • Potential R46 million payout in aid/subsidy • Mpumalanga & Northwest: further livestock mortality and crop water stress

  4. At the district level in South Africa • Vhembe district: drought impacts • Particularly significant north of the Soutpansberg – livestock mortality • Crop water stress reported January and ongoing throughout the remainder of the season • Built on substandard (quality, not amount) rainfall season of 2001/2002  accumulated effects

  5. The good news … • A time of advances in climate prediction + intermediary mechanisms • Vhembe: forecast received by • Farmers • District institutions • Limpopo Province: forecast received by PDA What happened ?

  6. Some preliminary ideas • EWS itself needs improvement • CONSTRAINTS on RESPONSE • Individual • Multiple stressors • Need to couple EWS with VA • Institutional • Institutional issues central to 2002/3 • Need to couple EWS with increased institutional capacity building A broad framework for considering such case studies 

  7. Key Relationships in the South African case Regional and national drivers Relationships between Global/regional/national and local Local realisations Climate Degraded environment Population Growth (might be + or – in rural areas) Food insecurity Economic growth Stressed social relations Technological change

  8. Food security/Drought as a local realization of global, regional, national and local drivers

  9. South African Case • In the South African story, which are the key relationships that were identified? • What is the nature of those relationships • Who are the key actors? • How have the interactions changed over time? • How might the interactions change in the future to best address the local concern?

  10. Key Relationships • National Department of Agriculture and District Departments Suggestions that relationships have become more complex this year (needs work) • Media • Radio broadcast of the forecast  SAWS and local users (farmers) Improved this year • District organisations and farmers • Extension officers • Education/outreach Not certain if improved this year • Agricultural advisory • ARC and NDA Improved this year (needs work)

  11. Conclusions • Process mapping is paramount • Stakeholder and institutional mapping helps to identify strengths and weaknesses in roles and relationships • This helps to focus further action • At the intervention level • For research

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