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1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised on 14 October 2010

1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised on 14 October 2010. Title : Improved use of GOES tropical cyclone intensity change and formation Project Type : Product Improvement and GOES Utilization Status : Renewal Duration : 2 years Leads: John Knaff NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB

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1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised on 14 October 2010

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  1. 1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised on 14 October 2010 • Title: Improved use of GOES tropical cyclone intensity change and formation • Project Type: Product Improvement and GOES Utilization • Status: Renewal • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • John Knaff NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB • Mark DeMaria NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB • Other Participants: • Andrea Schumacher CIRA/Texas A&M • Jack Dostalek CIRA/CSU

  2. 2. Project Summary • Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change • Improve forecasting of Tropical Cyclone to Extra-Tropical Cyclone Transition (ET) using GOES data and environmental conditions • Improve forecasting of Rapid Weakening (RW) not associated with landfall using GOES & environmental conditions • Tropical Cyclone Formation • Improve the probability of detection and decrease the false alarm ratio using GOES image processing techniques.

  3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Weather and Water • Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasts affect risk mitigation activities of industry, public and governmental sectors • Improving TC intensity forecast is a top NOAA/DOD priority • Better understanding of ET and RW cases will result in improved intensity forecasts. • Operational techniques for non-landfalling RW TCs currently do not exist • There are no operational guidance tools for identifying when a storm has completed ET. Existing forecasts/determination are subjective. This is important as other agencies can take over warnings/forecasts. • Forecasts of TC formation remains a difficult problem • Forecasts of TC formation are an operational requirement • Many sectors (e.g., US Navy) need long leads to mitigate TC events.

  4. 6. FY10 Milestones FY10 Milestones • Identify ET and RW cases • Construct imagery and environmental databases associated with ET • Construct imagery and environmental database associated with RW • Begin code development that creates image gradient calculations (edge detection) with GOES imagery • Begin examination of how edge detection tracking may improve TC formation probabilities

  5. FY10 Accomplishments: Extra Tropical Transition (ET) Datasets Preliminary Findings Based the previous SHIPS data file and the last point when the cyclone was declared tropical Discriminators of ET are Increasing storm speed Decreasing potential intensity Increasing low-level shear Increase upper-level divergence Decreasing TPW Cooling and more asymmetric (right-front wrt motion) cold IR cloud tops • SHIPS diagnostic files now contain post-tropical portions of best tracks • This new dataset has yet to be investigated for • What discriminates ET • What determines intensification post-ET.

  6. FY10 Accomplishments: Rapid Weakening (RW) Definition Locations of RW events • Decrease of 25 kt in 24 h • less than 3 hours overland during that time

  7. RW: Most Important (5) Discriminators Current Conditions (t=0) Forecasted Quantities (0-24h) Potential intensity (empirical on SST along TC track) 850 to 500-hPa wind shear 200-hPa Northerly winds • 12-intensity change (persistence) • Storm & Direction Relative IR Principle Component #4 (8.4%) – warm central feature/symmetric ring structure.

  8. RW: Interpretation Favorable for RW Indicative Often a warm central feature exists in the IR imagery Storm has often peaked or has begun to weaken. • Moderate or greater Vertical wind shear extending to the mid-levels ( > 6 kt) • Northerly flow at 200 hPa • Reduced SST/potential intensity (values less than 60 kt) Rapid weakening often involves the collapse of the existing eyewall complex in an environment characterized by decreasing intensification potential/SST, increasing vertical wind shear and occasionally strong northerly flow.

  9. Examples: Hurricane Georges (1998) Positive factors Negative factors

  10. FY10 Accomplishments: Improved IR disturbance detection • Developed code to create gradient calculation (edge detection) with GOES imagery • Used Deviation-Angle Variance Technique (DAV; Ritchie et al. 2010) on GOES water vapor brightness temperatures DAV: 25 June 2010 12z Smaller values correspond to regions of increased convective organization HC = Hurricane Celia HD = Hurricane Dalia PA = 10h before TD1 (Pre-Alex) PA HC HD Ritchie, E.A., M.J. Pineros, J.S. Tyo and S. Galvin, 2010: Detecting tropical cyclone formation from satellite imagery. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 1-4 Mar 2010.

  11. FY10 Progress Improved IR disturbance detection • Began examination of how edge detection tracking may improve TC formation probabilities • Input parameter for the TC formation probability algorithm (average deviation-angle variance in each 5 ° x 5° lat/lon grid box) is currently being tested in Atlantic basin DAV Parameter: 25 June 2010 12z Smaller values correspond to regions of increased convective organization (i.e., increase probability of TC formation) Will be tested as an input in TC formation probability product COLD LOW PA

  12. Remaining work in FY10 • Improve ET & RW databases • Identify post-ET intensification/weakening cases • Examine the utility of DAV for improving the discirimination of TC formation

  13. 5. Expected Outcomes • If successful, methods to predicted ET and RW will pursue PSDI or Joint Hurricane Testbed funding for implementation within the existing operational SHIPS model run at NCEP/TPC • Potential stand-alone ET probability product • Potential stand-alone RW probability product • If successful, new methods to improve the utilization GOES imagery using gradient symmetry/intensity calculations will pursue PSDI funding to apply them to the current operational product.

  14. 6. FY11 Milestones FY11 Milestones • Analysis of ET • Statistical (regression, discriminant) analysis • Adapt results to SHIPS database & possible stand-alone index • Test & document • Analysis of RW • Statistical (regression, discriminant) analysis • Adapt results to SHIPS database & possible stand-alone index • Test & document • Continue the examination of how edge detection tracking may improve TC formation probabilities • Adapt to existing product • Test & document

  15. 7. Funding (K)

  16. 9. Expected Purchase Items FY10 • FY10 $85,000 Total Project Budget • Grants $78,700 • CIRA $78,700 • Contracts – NONE • Federal Travel -$3,000 • J. Knaff, Savannah, GA, Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference – $1,600 • J. Knaff, Camp Springs, MD, SPSRB presentation/IPB interaction – $1,400 • Federal Publication Charges - $3,300 • J. Knaff, “An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates” - $3,300 • Federal Equipment -NONE • Transfers to other agencies – NONE • Other -NONE

  17. 8. Expected Purchase Items FY11 • FY11 $85,000 Total Project Budget • Grants $76,200 • CIRA $76,200 • Contracts – NONE • Federal Travel -$5,500 • J. Knaff, Homestead FL, Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Mar 2011 – $2,000 • M. DeMaria, Tokyo Japan, Pacific Fleet Tropical Cyclone Conference, Apr 2011 - $3,500 • Federal Publication Charges - $3,300 • J. Knaff, Rapid Weakening - $3,300 • Federal Equipment -NONE • Transfers to other agencies – NONE • Other - NONE

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