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July 2013 PowerPoint Presentation

July 2013

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July 2013

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  1. IME GSEVEE SURVEY ECONOMIC CLIMATE TRENDS July 2013 GSEVEE SMALL ENTERPRISES’ INSTITUTE, 46 Aristotelous str., GR-104 33, Athens Tel.:+30 210 8846852, fax:+30 210 8846853 www.imegsevee.gr info@imegsevee.gr

  2. SURVEY SPECIFICATIONS

  3. SAMPLE STRUCTURE

  4. SURVEY RESULTS

  5. OVERALL EVALUATION OF ENTERPRISES' COURSE (ASSESSMENT / OUTLOOK)

  6. You consider that the situation of your enterprise during the first half of 2013: The assessment of the first half of 2013 for enterprises is extremely negative. 75,4% of enterprises states that its overall economic situation has been deteriorated.

  7. PROSPECTS AND REAL SITUATION FOR THE 1st HALF OF 2013COMPARATIVE DATA OF JULY 2012 - JULY 2013

  8. PROSPECTS AND REAL SITUATION FOR THE 1st HALF OF 2013COMPARATIVE DATA OF JULY 2012 - JULY 2013 ASSESSMENT OF ENTERPRISE’S SITUATION (PAST HALF) *positive – negative views

  9. PROSPECTS AND REAL SITUATION FOR THE 1st HALF OF 2013COMPARATIVE DATA OF JULY 2012 - JULY 2013

  10. You anticipate that the situation of your enterprise during the next half: The prospects for the second half of 2013 are ominous, as the prospects of enterprises are negative in a large percentage (68,1%) of the sample. The degree of pessimism is higher between the smallest enterprises of the sample.

  11. Economic Climate Forecast PROSPECTS ON ENTERPRISE’S SITUATION (NEXT HALF) For the first time, during the past 2 years, there is an increase in pessimism. This shows that any hope for recovery fades away for entrepreneurs –the “era of illusions” came to an end.

  12. DETAILED EVALUATION OF KEY INDICATORS (ASSESSMENT OF THE 1st HALF OF 2013)

  13. TURNOVERCan you indicate whether, during the first half of 2013, the turnover of your enterprise has been increased, decreased, or remained unchanged? 75,8 % if enterprises showed decrease in turnover, with the highest decrease being recorded in trade and micro enterprises. The average decrease in turnover accounts for 27,3%, and cumulatively exceeds 50%.

  14. Overall, which is the percentage difference noticed in your turnover in first half of 2013 compared to respective period of 2012? Average Turnover Decrease: 27,29%

  15. DEMANDThe demand for the products or services that your enterprise provides during the 1st half of 2013 has:

  16. LIQUIDITYThe liquidity in your enterprise during the 1st half of 2013 has:

  17. ORDERSOrders towards your suppliers during the 1st half of 2013 have:

  18. INVESTMENT ACTIVITYThe investment activity of your enterprise during the 1st half of 2013 has: The enterprises showing an increased investment activity are the newly-established (1-5 years in operation), as well as the small and medium-sized enterprises (that is to say, the ones having a high turnover and more than 5 employees). This can be explained by the fact that most enterprises finance the market of fixed equipment during the first years of their operation. Investment stagnation for the rest enterprises is due to the decreased liquidity and the inability to form a coherent investment policy for small and medium-sized enterprises.

  19. EMPLOYMENTHas the personnel of your enterprise during the last 6 months been increased, decreased, or remained stable? 4,0 12,3

  20. For each enterprise proceeding in recruitments in the private sector, there are about 3 enterprises that proceed in lay-offs (in the previous survey the respective figure stood at 1:4, January 2013). Following IME GSEVEE estimations, there were 56.000 jobs lost during the first half of 2013. The decreasing rate in lay-offs is due to the substitute of costs reduction, which is reducing working hours/ and wages. As ELSTAT data show, new-comers have a significant share in unemployment’s increase. Noteworthy, in manufacture and services sectors, enterprises proceeding in recruitments are double than the respective ones in the trade sector. COMMENTS ON EMPLOYMENT

  21. ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST HALFCOMPARATIVE CHART

  22. ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST HALF • Each economic figure in enterprises keeps on having a negative performance, recording a deceleration compared to the previous surveys. • The indicators showing a stable deterioration compared to the previous surveys have to do with liquidity and orders by enterprises (decrease by 81,7% and 77,8% respectively). • Trade and micro enterprises sectors record the worst performance and are close to the threat of collapse. The newly-established enterprises (of up to 5 years in operation) are shown relatively resistant, which seem to invest more.

  23. DETAILED EVALUATION OF KEY INDICATORS (OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT HALF)

  24. TURNOVERDuring the next half (i.e. the 2nd half of 2013), do you anticipate that the turnover of your enterprise will be increased, decreased, or it will remain stable?

  25. TURNOVER - per category -

  26. DEMANDYou anticipate that the demand for the products or services that your enterprise provides, during the next half:

  27. LIQUIDITYYou anticipate that liquidity in your enterprise during the next half:

  28. ORDERSYou anticipate that orders towards your suppliers during the next half:

  29. INVESTMENT ACTIVITYYou anticipate that the investment activity of your enterprise during the next half:

  30. EMPLOYMENTDuring the next 6 months, do you consider most probable the personnel of your enterprise to get increased, decreased or to remain stable?

  31. EMPLOYMENTDuring the next 6 months, do you consider most probable the personnel of your enterprise to get increased, decreased or to remain stable?-enterprises with employees-

  32. PROSPECTS ON EMPLOYMENT • For each enterprise that states that it is probable to proceed in recruitment correspond 9 enterprises stating that it is probable for them to dismiss (in trade sector the ratio stands at 1:12). At the risk of losing 85,000-90,000 employment positions in total (that is to say, employers, self-employed, employees) and 45,000 jobs (paid employment).

  33. OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT HALFCOMPARATIVE CHART

  34. COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS SURVEYS 77,0 81,7 65,6 53,2 77,8 70,7 52,2 JUL 2010 JUL 2010 FEB 2010 JUL 2010 JUL 2011 80,0 77,9 FEB 2010 63,8 74,7 71,1 66,9 JΑΝ 2011 JΑΝ 2011 JΑΝ 2011 80,2 70,0 69,8 79,0 78,3 70,5 84,3 74,3 JUL 2011 JUL 2011 55,5 64,7 JΑΝ 2013 64,7 JΑΝ 2013 64,7 JΑΝ2013 JΑΝ 2012 JΑΝ 2012 82,5 78,6 82,0 76,5 85,9 79,9 JUL 2012 JUL 2012 JUL. 2012 85 FEB 2010 82,6 62,8 JΑΝ 2012 83,1 81,1 63,0 78,7 62,3 85,0 66,5 JUL 2013 62,4 JUL 2013 75,8 67,3 74,6 66,9 JUL 2013 86,5 63,1 Reduction TURNOVER Further reduction Reduction DEMAND Further reduction Reduction LIQUIDITY Further reduction

  35. COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS SURVEYS 52,3 12,3 64,4 54,1 76,1 70,1 33,6 JUL 2010 JUL 2010 FEB 2010 JUL 2010 JUL 2011 79,6 41,5 FEB 2010 47,5 21,1 40,7 21,2 JΑΝ 2011 JΑΝ 2011 JΑΝ 2011 79,5 70,8 16,5 21,9 45,3 43,2 24,1 18,3 JUL 2011 JUL 2011 15,3 13,8 JΑΝ 2013 63,8 JΑΝ 2013 17,6 JΑΝ 2013 JΑΝ 2012 JΑΝ 2012 83,5 77,3 37,6 40,5 20,1 16,4 JUL 2012 JUL 2012 JUL 2012 85,4 FEB 2010 20,4 34,6 JΑΝ 2012 37,4 83,3 63,8 47,0 64,3 16,6 13,1 JUL 2013 41,5 JUL 2013 77,8 68,0 35,3 34,1 JUL 2013 18,7 33,1 Reduction ORDERS Further reduction Reduction INVESTMENT Further reduction Reduction PERSONNEL Further reduction

  36. PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT HALFCONCLUSIONS • The forecast for the second half of 2013 is ominous, as enterprises’ prospects are negative in all figures. It is for the first time that prospects deteriorate. This shows that any recovery hope for entrepreneurs fades away. • Micro enterprises record the worst prospects for the next half. • The lack of liquidity and the decrease in orders are the most significant problems to be faced by enterprises.

  37. WAGES AND WORKING HOURS

  38. During the past 6 months have you faced difficulties in paying wages on time?-Out of enterprises with paid employees- 51,4% 110,000 enterprises face problems in paying wages in time.

  39. Having faced during the past 6 months difficulties in paying wages on time-Out of enterprises with paid employees-COMPARATIVE CHART JANUARY 2011 - JULY 2013

  40. Did you have to reduce, even occasionally, working hours or days for some employees?-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

  41. Had to reduce, even occasionally, working hours or days for some employees-Out of enterprises with paid employees-COMPARATIVE CHART JULY 2010 - JULY 2013

  42. Did you have to reduce some employees’ wages?-Out of enterprises with paid employees- 49,3% • The changing dynamics of labour relations towards more flexible and intense types of employment keep holding on. • 65,7% of enterprises has proceeded in reducing working hours or/and wages. • More than half enterprises with employees (50,5%) have reduced working hours or days. • 49,3% of enterprises has proceeded in a immediate readjustment of wage cost, by reducing wages.

  43. Had to reduce some employees’wages-Out of enterprises with paid employees- COMPARATIVE CHART JULY 2010 – JULY 2013

  44. Did they have to reduce employees’ working hours/days or wages?-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

  45. How probable do you consider that you will have to reduce your employees’ wages or working hours during the next half?-Out of enterprises with paid employees-

  46. LIABILITIES AND DEBTS 46

  47. Many enterprises reported that now they find it difficult to cover key obligations. During the past half, did you have arrears towards… …rents?

  48. Many enterprises reported that now they find it difficult to cover key obligations. During the past half, did you have arrears towards …Public Utilities[PPC (electricity), ote (telecommunications), water supply)?

  49. Many enterprises reported that now they find it difficult to cover key obligations. During the past half, did you have arrears towards …suppliers?

  50. Many enterprises reported that now they find it difficult to cover key obligations. During the past half, did you have arrears towards …loan payments?