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'Cost effective measures and planning of traffic safety

'Cost effective measures and planning of traffic safety. Planning philosophies and preferences Use of CBA in Sweden/Europe Physical planning Four step principal Speed Limit Review. Planning philosophies. More complex Rail investments – road development Industries and villages

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'Cost effective measures and planning of traffic safety

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  1. 'Cost effective measures and planning of traffic safety Planning philosophies and preferences Use of CBA in Sweden/Europe Physical planning Four step principal Speed Limit Review

  2. Planning philosophies More complex Rail investments – road development Industries and villages Conditions for living and welfare Caused by many individual reasons and decisions not by strategic planning

  3. Processes of decisions • Extreme 1: Rational perspective • Extreme 2: Wagging the way forward • Visionary: Main problem and future status in clear picture (Vision Zero) • Planning: Defining goals from problems to solve. Goals define valuations. • Consensus oriented: Acceptance through discussions with parties; goals, problems

  4. Visionary Visionary & Planning Planning Planning & Consensus Consensus Consensus & Visionary European cities use of different decision models. Source: EU project PROSPECTS Consider this! Russia model today and in the future? Russia and Tatarstan/Kazan?

  5. Welfare preferences5 children have found a puppet in a basement. Consider this! Who should have the puppet? 1) He/she fixed the key and that made it possible to get into the basement. Compensation after work/Aristoteles 2) He/she is the strongest of them all and if he/she don’t get the puppet she will start a fight, which she probably will win. Negotiation positioning/Hobbes 3) He/she spotted the puppet first and thats why she must have it. Practical philosofic arguments/Locke, Nozick 4) It means most for he/she, because the collection will be completed then. Utility maximization principle 5) He/she is underprivileged and has no puppet at all. Maximize-Minimize principle/Rawls

  6. Cost Effective Measures and Planning of Traffic Safety in Sweden • Beauty Contest! • Cost Benefit Analysis Method • Four step principal • Physical planning • Review of Speed Limits in Sweden

  7. Goals in transport policy (1) The overall goal of transport policy in accordance with the Swedish Parliament’s decision in 1998: • to ensure a socio-economically efficient transport system that is sustainable in the long term for individuals and the business community throughout the country.

  8. Goals in transport policy (2) This goal is divided into six subsidiary goals: • An accessible transport system: The transport system is to be designed so as to meet the basic transport needs of individuals and the business community. • High transport quality: The design and function of the transport system is to permit a high level of transport quality for individuals and the business community. • Positive regional development: The transport system should promote a positive regional development, both by evening out differences in the potential of various parts of the country to develop, and by counteracting the drawbacks of long transport distances.

  9. Goals in transport policy (3) This goal is divided into six subsidiary goals: • Safe traffic: The long-term goal for road traffic safety is for nobody to be killed or seriously injured as a result of traffic accidents. The design and operation of the road transport system should be brought into line with the requirements that this goal entails. • A good environment: The design and performance of the transport system should be adapted to the requirements for a good and healthy living environment for everyone, where natural and cultural environments are protected against damage. Good management of land, water, energy and other natural resources is to be promoted. • A gender-equal road transport system: The road transport system is to be designed to fulfil the transport needs of both women and men. Women and men are to be offered an equal opportunity to influence the creation of the transport system, its design and management, and their values are to be equally important.

  10. Since 1997 • In October 1997 the Swedish Parliment adopted a ”Vision Zero” approach as a basis for Sweden´s long-term road safety objectives.

  11. Beauty Contest! • The most effect per invested capital • killed and seriously injured persons / investing capital cost (euro) • Priority to maximize number of saved persons for a given budget. • Effects and impacts have been collected and documented in a knowledge based document used by all planning in road sector. • Equivalent for other transport mode system

  12. Estimate Effect examples • Speed reduction - (speed after/speed before)4,5. If speed is reduced from 100 km/h to 90 km/h it will give about 38% reductions for expected fatalities. • A pedestrian sidewalk can give somewhere between 40-80 percent reduction, depending on if the sidewalk is on both sides of the road or on one side; if its completely separated from vehicles or partly separated. • Steel guard rails and/or removing obstacles from roadside can reduce the severity of accident outcome with 15-60%.

  13. Estimate effects example • Pedestrian crosswalks are estimated to about 20-30 %, with island and footpath extension and fences up to 50%. • Medians give a reduction for pedestrian with about 20-25% and for head on collisions almost 100%. • Improved visibility and guidance, including illumination is estimated to give an accident reduction about 20-30%. Illumination can even give a bigger reduction, up to 65%, if a “black spot” is found where accidents appear in dark hours. • Important that the situation in the specific village under investigation is taken into consideration when estimating the effects.

  14. Estimate investment costs • Calculate construction costs per unit of typical road construction works • Calculate costs for the designed modules • Determinate costs for maintenance and costs for individual measures, land aquisation, ..

  15. Presentation about the Cost–Benefit Analysis for the Road-Safety-Measure project

  16. Cost–Benefit Analysis • Weighing the total expected costs against the total expected benefits of one or more actions in order to choose the best or most profitable option

  17. HEATCO Developing Harmonised European Approaches for Transport Costing and Project Assessment. Project in 6 frame programme 2002-2006. Project owner: European Commission, DGTREN Final version report 17 maj 2006. Consortium: IER University of Stuttgart Tyskland, University of Bath UK, EIT University of Las Palmas Spain, COWI Denmark, BUTE Hungary, ISIS Italy, Ecoplan Schweiz, TNO Dutch Nederland, VTI Sweden, SWECO Norway, ITS Leeds UK, Herry Consult Germany, NTUA Greece and Sudop Tjeckien.

  18. Evaluation methodes of projects with several countries involved • Evaluation of EU fonds projects • Harmonizing of assessment with one framework. (Some countries without consistent method). • Purpose: Guidelines based on criterias socioeconomic efficiency, open and clear studies, and support from member countries decision makers.

  19. Decision criterias • NPV (net present value) = (positive=recommend) • BCR (benefit cost ratio) = (>0 =recommend) • RNPSS (ratio of NPV and public sector support) (>1=recommend, valid for priorities with limited budget) • FYRR (first year rate of return) – valid for decison of optimal opening year for a project.

  20. Real changes during project lifetime years • Factor prices/market prices • No monetized effects • Lifetime period • Risk and uncertainty • Discounting • Allocation of effects • Marginal Cost of Public Funds

  21. Values of Time • Values of risk and accidents • Noice • Air pollutions • Climate gases • Other specific situations of environmental aspects • Construction cost • Planning cost: Only costs after decision made • Land use costs: land value, cost for buying process. • Cost for trafficants during activities: (=Trafficant extra cost): Estimate effect and value as ordinary time value • Maintenance costs

  22. Accident data We assume that reported fatalities are probably most accurate. With the figures of fatalities as a starting point one could expect the number of severe injured to be about 3 times the fatalities and light injured and damage only about 8 times the fatalities

  23. Accident cost in European countries related to GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

  24. Consider this!! A positive CBA-ratio is an information to the decision maker that the project is positive for the society. The non monetized effects can on the other hand be positive (better) or negative (worse) for the society. How to prioritize between investment package A, B, C and D?

  25. Typical costs - if made right from the beginning

  26. MID-BARRIERS / CENTRE GUARD RAILS • A centre guard rail prevents head-on collisions, thereby making a rural road of standard width considerably safer. • Appr. 1000 km in 2004 • Goal: 2000 km in 2007 • Test started in 1998 with 6 projects • AADT 4000 - 22000

  27. What purpose have socioeconomic analysis and calculations had so far, and how should it be tomorrow? • It’s obvious that decisions divert from results. This goes for beneficial and non-beneficial projects! • Rail tunnel in Malmoe (NPV/C<0) • Road plans in Stockholm (NPV<0) • A number of rail projects (bothnia stretch, Hallands tunnel) (NPV/C < 0) • Bypass Sveg (NPV/C= 6) • Russia projects?

  28. The Four Step Principle Measures that affect transport needs and choice of mode of transport Possible measures step 1 Short-comings/ Needs Balancing and prioritising measures with different effects, costs and time perspectives Measures that lead to more efficient utilisation of the existing road network Possible measures step 2 Road improvements and minor conversions Possible measures step 3 New investments and major conversions Possible measures step 4

  29. The use of Cost Benefit Analysis at SRA

  30. The Planning Procedure in three levels • Planning in a strategically level. • Concerning all traffic modes: road, railway, air and shipping • System analysis of the road network.Improvement of the road network in a large scale • Road projects.Individual actions to the roads CBA is used in all three levels

  31. Estimated Impacts - Land use - Tourism - Water Supply - Recreation - Impacts of a region Factors to CBA • Valued Impacts • Travel time • Vehicle costs • Traffic Safety • Environmental issues • Maintenance costs • Noise Impacts not to be settled Valued Impacts • Estimated Impacts • Barrier impacts - Environmental protection

  32. Forecast concerning the future need of transportation The Population The Economy etc The Road network Can be improved by.. Alternative actions Lead to impacts.. Impacts Impacts Valued into money Not valued into money Fulfilment of Cost Benefit Analysis the Aims As a basis for ... Total judgement Decision of action Foundation of decisions

  33. Transport demand forecasting models Overall assumptions now and in the future National institute Models for national long term for statistik etc. economic forecast - EMEC - rAps - Population - Business sector, export and import - Employment, incoms - Infrastructure - Car ownership - GDP-growth - Taxation, charges, regulation • SAMGODS – The Swedish model system for freight transports • Foreign trade • VTI/TPR • STAN (system optimizing) • SAMKALK GODS • SAMPERS – The Swedish model system for passenger traveling • Car ownership • Regional travel (5 models) • National travel • International travel • EMME/2 (user optimizing) • ACCESSIBILITY SAMKALK • MODUL

  34. Use of SAMGODS / SAMPERS • Strategic infrastructure planning for the planning period 2004-15 • Freight transport forecast for 2010 and for 2020 • Freight corridor study • Transport mileage forecast for 2020 – analys enviroment impacts • Impacts from congestion charges Stockholm • Bothnia railway

  35. Effect profileSummary of impacts according to the Transport policy

  36. Effect profile - continued ..

  37. Fulfilment of transport policy Transport policy Goals and aims Contribution to the goals ? Impacts Action to the road network

  38. Summary and conclusions • CBA is a useful method to the long-term planning, but be useful in some other cases of planning matters. • CBA is one of many foundations for decision-making. • CBA doesn’t present the whole truth. • CBA could in some cases be misused by the decision-makers. • CBA is used more a less for investments only • Need to extend the use of CBA for other actions. • Lack of measure / effect correlation for some of actions.

  39. Physical Transport Planning Process ”GAP ANALYSIS” INITIAL STUDY FEASIBILITY STUDY DESIGN PLAN BUILDING DOCUMENT

  40. The four-step principle 1 3 Improvements and minor conversions Transport needs and means of transport 2 4 New investments and major conversions More efficient use of the road network

  41. The four steps • Measures that effect transport needs and choice of mode of transport • Measures that lead to more efficient utilisation of the existing road network • Road improvements and minor conversions • New investments and major conversions

  42. Work method Measures that affect transport needs and choice of mode of transport Possible measures step 1 Short-comings/ Needs Balancing and prioritising measures with different effects, costs and time perspectives Measures that lead to more efficient utilisation of the existing road network Possible measures step 2 Road improvements and minor conversions Possible measures step 3 New investments and major conversions Possible measures step 4

  43. Example E4 Ljungby • Choise of measures: • Immidiate Lower speed 110 to 80 km/h • Short perspective Midbarrier 2+1 • Long perspectiveMotorway 2+2 Lower traffic intensity ? No measure found Severe head on coll-isions Traffic regulation ? Lowered speed Minor road construction measures ? Construction midbarrier 2+1 Major road construction measures? Construction motorway 2+2

  44. Review and Implementation of new Speed Limits Sweden 2008 – 2009 incorporated to present speed limits 30 50 70 90 110

  45. New Speed Limits • Parliament decision may 2007: Road Administration, Regional Governments and Municipalities have the right to decide on speed limits from 30 to 120 km/h with succession of 10 km/h step. • Government decide in traffic regulation so Road Administration can implement speed limits 80, 100 and 120 km/h. • The new regulation starts from 2 may 2008. • General Director of Road Administration decide on guidelines for the implementation of new speed limits, December 2007.

  46. In a long term perspective shall… ”… a consecutive adjustment of speed limits towards vision zero and that demand on accessibility, good environment, positive regional development and an equal transport system been taken in consideration. Governmental Proposition of New Speed Limits

  47. New Speed Limits – Why ??? • Present system from 1971 (1955 urban areas) • ”Inconsistency” of decisions during that time period. • Speed limits have not been considered from humans ability to handle physical violence. • New transport policy goals have been decided. • From safety- and environmental perspective, is 20-step to big. • Road transport system can be utilized more efficiently with respect to all transport policy goals. • Acceptance for new speed limits should increase. • New road types since 1971.

  48. How shall this be implemented?? • Road Administration review of roads outside urban areas (mostly 90 and 110 roads) • Municipalities implement new speed limits within planned urban areas. • Regional governments adjust local speed limit decisions and private roads. • Review in close coperation with new long term plan 2010 – 2020.

  49. (When) Time schedule state roads

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