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Peak Oil

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Peak Oil

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  1. Peak Oil Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

  2. Some Basics +Alaska Lower 48 US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html

  3. US Indonesia UK Iran? Venezuela Many Countries Have Peaked! http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893

  4. Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

  5. OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates

  6. Gaussian

  7. Gaussian Fit to US Production

  8. USGS and Cumulative Production

  9. dQ = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞) dt Hubbert’s Logistic Curve “Economic” argument: We will always find more and increase ultimate recovered amount 1980 Prediction

  10. Problem with Logistic Curves At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar. There are too many free fitting parameters

  11. The Point Remains …

  12. Hubbert Linearization P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞) Q (Gbbl) http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568

  13. HL - Texas http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/

  14. HL – US 48

  15. HL – Saudi Arabia

  16. HL - World

  17. www.ihs.com US Geological Survey Estimates Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)

  18. Rough Outline of the Future • USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 • EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth • A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025 • Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

  19. Creaming Curves

  20. One Prediction (1998) R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

  21. Duncan and Youngquist Predictions

  22. Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

  23. 2/3 ! Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

  24. Peak Models USGS BP

  25. A Brief History of Oil

  26. Keep Watching… http://www.theoildrum.com

  27. Peak “Good” Oil OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005