St. Louis Homicides Shawn Rakers, Renita Reed, Abigail Rusnica, Joseph Schmoele, David Wilhelm
Background Information • St. Louis is rated #4 Deadliest city in 2012 according to PolicyMic with 113 murders. • The number of murders has decreased by half over the past 20 years. • The homicide rate is so high because the city has not grown beyond its restrictive borders. • If the safer suburbs were counted in the city’s crime statistics, it would be rated much lower.
Methods • What outside factors could have effects on the homicide rate? • Weather & Seasons • Home Values • Food Deserts • Income • Vacancies
Weather & Seasons • Do really cold or hot temperatures cause the homicide rate to fluctuate? • Generally, homicides increase during summer months. • Assumption: during winter more people stay inside.
Home Values • Negative correlation between home value and homicides. • As home values decrease, homicides increase • Correlation: - .51 • Home values of less than $100,000 appear to account for the majority of homicides.
Food Deserts • What is a food desert? • A geographic area where affordable & healthy food is difficult to obtain. • Food deserts and community • Healthy Corner Store project • Addition of new stores
Healthy Corner Store project • Ranks of Total Homicides: • Jeff Vanderlou #1 • Dutchtown #6 • Walnut Park East #17 • West End #21 • Benton Park West #23 • Forest Park East #63 • Shaw #66
New grocery stores downtown • Aldiby The Loop • Save A Lot in Jefferson Commons • Fields Foods by Soulard • SchnucksCulinaria
Median Household Income • Economic divisions between neighborhoods in north St. Louis and south St. Louis. • Economic restraints in neighborhoods with lower levels of household income coincide with homicides in that area.
Median Income vs. Homicides • Correlation is -0.41 • As median incomes decrease, homicides increase for that area. • Concentrated areas in south city around Dutchtown, Gravois Park and Benton Park West have above average incomes and above average homicides.
Highest and lowest Median Incomes • Top 5: • Lindenwood Park • St. Louis Hills • Ellendale • Princeton Heights • Clifton Heights • Lowest 5: • Columbus Square • Near N. Riverfront • St. Louis Place • Old N. St. Louis • Jeff Vanderlou
Deploy Resources • Hot Spot Policing • North Riverfront, Fountain Park, Kingsway West, O’Fallon, The Ville, Fairground Neighborhood, Baden, Walnut Park East, Penrose, Lewis Place, Mark Twain, Walnut Park West, Wells-Goodfellow, North Point, Patch, Hyde Park, Dutchtown, Marine Villa, Carondelet, Mount Pleasant, Cheltenham, Bevo Mill, Hamilton Heights, Kingsway East, Jeff Vander Lou, West End, Benton Park West, and Ellendale
Prediction • Assumptions: • No unexpected or unusual events are expected to radically modify the current trend. • Hot Spot Policing will not dramatically alter the homicide rate.
Prediction Total Homicides for 2014: 128
Conclusion • After brainstorming and researching a variety of possible factors that could effect the homicide rate in St. Louis for 2014, we found that though there was much correlation between the chosen topics, there wasn’t direct causation. • Using the homicide data from the years 2008-2013, as well as the months of January & February for 2014, we were able to make our prediction.