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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC. Climate Change and Crop Production in the US Midwest and Globally. Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011. Pioneer Hybrid Johnston, IA 8 September 2011. Outline.

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  1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

  2. Climate Change and Crop Production in the US Midwest and Globally Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011 Pioneer Hybrid Johnston, IA 8 September 2011

  3. Outline • Observed changes in Midwest climate • Projected future changes in temperatures and precipitation • Ipwa farmer adaptation to climate change • AgMIP, CORDEX

  4. Three separate analyses of the temperature record – Trends are in close agreement 2010 has tied 2005 as the warmest year on record since 1880

  5. First Date Iowa’s Average Fall 4-inch Soil Temperature Was Below 50oF Iowa Environmental Mesonet2010

  6. Des Moines Airport Data Caution: Not corrected for urban heat island effects

  7. Des Moines Airport Data Caution: Not corrected for urban heat island effects

  8. Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 1977: 8 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 22 years

  9. “Warming Hole”: Regional climate model simulations of changes in daily maximum summertime temperatures between 1990s and 2040s DTmax (JJA) ˚C • Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal,2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole”. Geophys. Res. Lett.31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528.

  10. Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000 Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

  11. Iowa State-Wide Average Data

  12. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Domain

  13. VIC average (1981-1999) number of GDD base 50F during growing season (Apr-Aug)

  14. WRF24KF average (1981-1999) number of GDD base 50F during growing season (Apr-Aug)

  15. WRFG average (1981-1999) number of GDD base 50F during growing season (Apr-Aug)

  16. CRCM average (1981-1999) number of GDD base 50F during growing season (Apr-Aug)

  17. HRM3 average (1981-1999) number of GDD base 50F during growing season (Apr-Aug)

  18. WRFG WRF24KF 2000 2500 VIC 2500 3000 2500 2500 3000 2500 3000 CRCM HRM3 3000

  19. Summer (JJA) Cloud Cover, Des Moines

  20. Summer (JJA) Cloud Cover, Cedar Rapids(Pre ASOS Installation)

  21. Summer (JJA) Cloud Cover, Mason City (Pre ASOS Installation)

  22. Iowa State-Wide Average Data

  23. Iowa State-Wide Average Data 34.0” 10% increase 30.8”

  24. Iowa State-Wide Average Data Totals above 40” 2 years 34.0” 10% increase 30.8”

  25. Iowa State-Wide Average Data Totals above 40” 2 years 8 years 34.0” 10% increase 30.8”

  26. Cedar Rapids Data

  27. Cedar Rapids Data 32% increase 28.0” 37.0”

  28. Cedar Rapids Data Years with more than 40 inches 1 32% increase 28.0” 37.0”

  29. Cedar Rapids Data Years with more than 40 inches 11 1 32% increase 28.0” 37.0”

  30. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  31. Cedar Rapids Data 1.25 inches 6.6 days 4.2 days 57% increase

  32. Cedar Rapids Data 1.25 inches Years having more than 8 days 13 2 6.6 days 4.2 days 57% increase

  33. Years with more than 40 inches: 43% Increase

  34. 3.7 5.2 41% Increase

  35. Years having more than 8 days 7 350% Increase 2 3.7 5.2 41% Increase

  36. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  37. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  38. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  39. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  40. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  41. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  42. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall Winter Summer

  43. Amplification of the Seasonality of Precipitation Spring Fall 21.2 => 25.3 inches (22% increase) 12.1 => 10.5 inches (13% decrease) Winter Summer

  44. Climate trends of the recent past have low statistical significance. Nevertheless, they have forced significant agricultural adaptation:

  45. Climate trends of the recent past have low statistical significance. Nevertheless, they have forced significant agricultural adaptation: Even climate trends of low statistical significance can have impacts of high agricultural significance

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