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Demographic Outlook for the European Union

Demographic Outlook for the European Union. W hy it matters, what drives it and what it is. Why does the EU’s demography and how it’s changing matter ?. It sets the context for range of issues e.g . the economy the labour market migration flows health and long-term care pensions

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Demographic Outlook for the European Union

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  1. Demographic Outlook for the European Union Why it matters, what drives it and what it is

  2. Why does the EU’s demography and how it’s changing matter? It sets the context for range of issues e.g. • the economy • the labour market • migration flows • health and long-term care • pensions • the environment • intergenerational fairness • election results • etc... Presentation Title

  3. What drives demography? • Driven by 3 main things and how these are changing over time: • Numbers of people being born • People ageing and dying • People moving Presentation Title

  4. What has been happening in the EU to these 3 drivers? • We have been having fewer children than in the past • We are living longer on average than in the past • Movement of people internally (crudely: East to West, South to North) and externally from 3rd countries (legal migration, irregular migrationinc. refugees) Presentation Title

  5. First driver: people having fewer children Total fertility rate (births per woman) Presentation Title

  6. Number of live births lower despite a bigger EU population • During the period 1961–2016 the highest annual total of live births in the EU-28 was recorded in 1964, at 7.8 million. • By contrast, in 2016 there were just 5.1 million live births despite the EU-28 population having grown in the meantime by around one quarter. Presentation Title

  7. Total fertility rates in EU-28 Member States in 2015 Presentation Title

  8. Second driver: Living longerAverage female and male life expectancy at birth Presentation Title

  9. Average female and male life expectancy at age 60 (years) Presentation Title

  10. Third driver: movement. • Free movement: • On 1 January 2016, 19.3 million people (or about 3.8% of the total EU population of 510.3 million) were born in a different EU Member State to that in which they were resident. • Migration: • 35.1 million people (or about 6.9% of the EU population) born outside the EU-28 were living in an EU Member State. • This total of 54.4 million people residing outside their country of birth accounted for 10.7 % of the total EU population of 510.3 million people on 1 January 2016. Presentation Title

  11. Foreign population (other EU Member State nationals and non-EU nationals) residing in each Member State in 2016 Presentation Title

  12. EU population was growing, world grew faster. EU-28 and world population (1960=100) Presentation Title

  13. Crude rate of total population change in NUTS 3 regions 2015 Presentation Title

  14. Some characteristics of areas losing population • To generalise: • Areas which lose population tend to be rural, already sparsely populated and remote. Declining industrial areas and various peripheral towns are also affected by depopulation trends. • Nonetheless rural regions which are close to dynamic urban centres, areas within commuting distance or which enjoy good transport connections with them can experience good population development. • People tend to move wherever there are jobs, career opportunities and favourable economic prospects. For instance, within Europe, movements of young educated professionals from Southern Europe to North Western Europe have been recorded since the beginning of the economic crisis. Presentation Title

  15. Ageing EU: Population pyramids EU-28, 2001 and 2016 (numbers of women and men by age tranches) Presentation Title

  16. Ageing EU: Population pyramids, EU-28, 2020 and 2080 (numbers of women and men by age tranches) Presentation Title

  17. All EU Member States Ageing: Median age of the population (years) in EU 28 Member States in 1970 and 2016 Presentation Title

  18. Conclusions • The EU population is now growing only slowly and is expected to stagnate or even decline in the coming years and will hence be an ever smaller proportion of the growing world population • The EU population has also been ageing and this is expected to continue • This outlook is essentially set in the shorter term at least, meaning the focus must be on smoothing and adapting to these changing demographics. Presentation Title

  19. Some useful links to more information • Demographic outlook for the European Union, In-Depth Analysis, ERPS, December 2017. Available in EN, FR and DE. Has links and references to a host of further sources. Full link address here: • http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_IDA(2017)614646 • The silver economy: Opportunities from ageing, Briefing, EPRS, July 2015. Available in En, FR and DE. Full link address here: • http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=EPRS_BRI%282015%29565872 Presentation Title

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