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Change Models – Types of Changes

Change Models – Types of Changes. Quality Adjustment – Do same things consistently Incremental – Slight change to improve Trend Adjustment – Adjust output to market Evolution Step – Gradual major change Revolution Step – Rapid major change

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Change Models – Types of Changes

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  1. Change Models – Types of Changes • Quality Adjustment – Do same things consistently • Incremental – Slight change to improve • Trend Adjustment – Adjust output to market • Evolution Step – Gradual major change • Revolution Step – Rapid major change • Paradigm Shift – Very rapid change to something totally different

  2. Change Models • Help to respond to environmental change • Some change just happens • Some is planned by others • Help to anticipate and survive • Those who see change happening can respond • Those who ignore change don’t survive • To thrive you must be good at: • Responding to a Change • Anticipating a Change • Driving the Change

  3. Responding to a Change – Possible Responses • Remain Unaware • Ignore (Hope change will reverse) • Wait to see what others do & copy them • Just start doing something (play by ear) • Put together a detailed analysis and plan • BEST: Assess basis for the change, determine what else the change will impact, flexibly manage to maximize benefit from change.

  4. Anticipating a Change • “You can and should shape your own future. Because, if you don’t, someone else surely will.” – Joel Barker • More difficult than responding • Provides opportunity to: • Lead and affect the change • Select what part of the change you want to influence • Get into action early • Requires continual sensing of the outside

  5. Critical Change Analysis • Critical Change Analysis – What if • Start from the Current State • Analyze major factors which could change the current state • External influences  Respond • Current Shortcomings  Necessitates Invention • Brainstorm the “What if’s”

  6. Critical Change Analysis Outcome 1 Current State More or less Defined Change Needed Outcome 2 Outcome 3 Outcome 4…..etc.

  7. Conventional Heavy Oil Produce the Reservoir Large Volumes of Sand - Poor Access Turn Into Opportunity Stir Up the Reservoir Access Without Casing Enhanced In-Situ Separation

  8. Conventional Oil Alternate Water Sources Low Cost Injectant Supplies High Cost of Injectants for EOR Carbon Dioxide Air or Oxygen Nitrogen

  9. Natural Gas Co-generation in Gas Treating 10-15% of Gas Used for Fuel Reduce Fuel Costs Geothermal Co-generation Technology Acid Gas Injection Gas Liquefaction for Pipelines

  10. Energy Generation Co-Generation Deregulation & Distributed Generation Mainly Large Coal Fired Utilities Power from Wastes “Renewable” Sources Geothermal Co-generation Technology

  11. Driving the Change • Making things happen – Why not • Overcome Resistance to a Change Change = ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS • SD = Sufficient Dissatisfaction • V = Vision of what could be • FS = First Steps to get there • R = Resistance to Change must be Overcome • SS = Support System to Make it Happen

  12. Change Model – DHOWS Case Study • How it was used and reused to assess the situation for given changes. • Initial Concept • Testing philosophy • Demonstration • Commercialization  On-going

  13. Water Management Downhole Separation Minimize Water Handling High Cost of Handling Water ($1.2 b/yr) Plug off in the Reservoir Coning Control Drill Somewhere Else

  14. Water Management • SD  Obtain water production & handling cost data • V  Lower costs and increase production • FS  Look at Options – Feasibility Study • R  “We’re doing as good as everybody else”; “We just sell off properties when they start watering out” • SS  Use real applications to assess

  15. DHOWS Initial Concept Hydrocyclone Other Options Not Very Predictable Downhole Oil/Water Separation Gravity Sieves & Screens Membranes

  16. DHOWS Initial Concept • SD  Need better than hit and miss • V  Design system to match application • FS  Design Initial Prototypes • R  “No residence time in a well”; “Maybe when hell freezes over!” • SS  Build on proven systems

  17. Testing Philosophy Field Well Tests DHOWS Concepts Simple But Unproven Minimum Test to Answer Questions Lab Well Simulation Scale Models Component Testing

  18. Testing Philosophy • SD  Problems with past trials • V  Controlled Test with Low Risk • FS  Select an Optimum Candidate Well • R  “Too much Jewelry in the hole”; “Not measuring water quality” • SS  Field for initial tests well understood

  19. Demonstration Semi-Commercial Tests Demonstration Testing Required Limits to Use Unknown C-FER Controlled Tests JIP Testing Well Simulator Testing

  20. Demonstration • SD  One success not enough • V  Gradual development of a new standard required • FS  Get more units out there • R  “Costs more than just a pump”; “Why should my business unit take the risk” • SS  On-going C-FER/NPEL support

  21. Commercialization Pump Vendors Through Sales User Guides & Training Few People Know How DHOWS Works Producer Training C-FER/NPEL Courses C-FER/NPEL Consulting or JV’s

  22. Commercialization • SD  Everybody talks about it but no one uses it • V  Make DHOWS an industry option • FS  Education of the Producers • R  “We want to be on the leading edge, not the bleeding edge”; “It costs too much!” • SS  C-FER/NPEL courses/consulting

  23. Topic:_____________

  24. Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C • SD  _____________________________ • V  ______________________________ • FS  _____________________________ • R  ______________________________ ________________________________________ • SS  _____________________________

  25. Topic:_____________

  26. Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C • SD  _____________________________ • V  ______________________________ • FS  _____________________________ • R  ______________________________ ________________________________________ • SS  _____________________________

  27. Topic:_____________

  28. Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C • SD  _____________________________ • V  ______________________________ • FS  _____________________________ • R  ______________________________ ________________________________________ • SS  _____________________________

  29. Topic:_____________

  30. Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C • SD  _____________________________ • V  ______________________________ • FS  _____________________________ • R  ______________________________ ________________________________________ • SS  _____________________________

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