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BCA-Europe liner & Blended Winglets

BCA-Europe liner & Blended Winglets. A bright wing is a modified wing. Presentation. Project Team. Maarten de Boer Bekir Koncak Blessing Njohb Franklin Sievers Marcel de Vries Benjamin Wennink. Project: BCA-EL & Blended Winglets. Assignment

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BCA-Europe liner & Blended Winglets

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  1. BCA-Europeliner & BlendedWinglets A brightwing is a modifiedwing Presentation Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  2. Project Team • Maarten de Boer • BekirKoncak • Blessing Njohb • Franklin Sievers • Marcel de Vries • Benjamin Wennink Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  3. Project: BCA-EL & Blended Winglets • Assignment • Who BCA-EL Board of Management • What Financial desirability research • Why Company goals & CSR Main question “Is a feasible winglet modification on the whole or partial B737 fleet desirable and profitable?” Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  4. Presentation Team • Blessing Njohb Advice & 3 Options • Benjamin Wennink Option 1 Implementation • Maarten de Boer Option 2 Postponement • Marcel de Vries Option 3 Mandate & Conclusion Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  5. Research Core & Aspects • Feasible • Maintenance, HRM • Desirable • Company strategy • Achievable • Planning & logistics • Profitable • Benefits, Cash flow, Net Present Value  Yes  Yes  Yes No Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  6. Cash Flow • Fuel Benefit • Start modification April 2012 Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  7. *Profitability • Fuel price Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  8. * Profitability • Dollar exchange Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  9. Modify • Postpone • Mandate Advice • NO-GO • The research shows three possible options: Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  10. Modify Fundamentals • BCA Facts & figures • Winglets • Maintenance schedule • Economy • Opportunities Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  11. Modify • Modify Scenarios The project team defined three possible scenarios: • Scenario 1: Soonest (½ year) € 42.709.383 • Scenario 2: Soon (1.9 years) €43.905.139 • Scenario 3: Spread (3.6 years) €40.018.568 • Modification kits • Transportation • Man hour • Crew training Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  12. Modify • Modify Modification illustration • Feasibility, desirability, achievability, profitability Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  13. Modify • Modify BCA Facts & Figures • Employees • Fleet of Boeing 737-300 & Boeing 737-800 • 46 Destinations • From 200,000 to 179,000 FH/yr • 505 NM average flight distance • 79% Fleet utilization 226.117,50 FH Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  14. Modify • Modify Winglets Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  15. Modify • Modify Maintenance schedulecrisis and growth • 1 Hangar  6 bays • Schedule  45 to 41 • Employees  372 to 345 Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  16. Modify • Modify Economy • Economical crisis from 2008 • Current state • Variable economic aspects • Fuel price • Load factor Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  17. Modify * Load factor • Trends Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  18. Modify *Fuel price • Expectations Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  19. Modify • Modify Opportunities Disadvantages Opportunities • AOG • AC off line costs $ • Low fleet utilization • Life cycle • Time to modify • Modify during C-check • Expand network • Phase out classics • Now could be the time Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  20. Modify Summary • Advice : NO-GO√ • Option fundamentals √ • BCA Facts & Figures • Winglets • Maintenance Schedule • Economics • Opportunities • Research aspects √ • Feasibility • Desirability • Achievability • Profitability • Other options √ • Modify • Postpone • Mandate Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  21. Modify Implementation – Content • Maintenance schedule • Human Resource Management • Risks • Point out the things we thought about and covered by investigating the feasability and achievability. • This will be in concordance with the recommendation and can be reproduced and applied for scenarios in the future Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  22. Modify • Modify Maintenance schedule Is the current maintenance schedule able to implement the scenario constraints? • Opportunity of crisis turned into advantages • Use grounded aircraft as back up, use c-check as option to get modification done without too much complications and rising costs. Challenges: • Hangar space. • No flight cancellations or lease • Potential (short-term) changes in market demand can possibily endanger the modification implementation. What about future changes in maintenance schedule? Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  23. Modify • Modify Maintenance Schedule Cont’d • Constant workload • Engineers, maintenance officers, etc. • Aircraft maintenance • 24/7 shifts, sickness and training (Extra + Reserve) • 24/7 shifts: extra crew (25%); • Reserve: sickness and training (20%) Current (179,000 FH): (Extra) - 20,631 hours (A/C m) - 73,440 hours (Const) - 46,720 hours Potential (200,000 FH): (Extra) - 20,866 hours (A/C m) - 75,936 hours (Const) - 46,720 hours Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  24. Modify Current (179,000 FH): (Const) - 46,720 hours (A/C m) - 73,440 hours (Extra) - 20,631 hours Potential (200,000 FH): (Const) - 46,720 hours (A/C m) - 75,936 hours (Extra) - 20,866 hours Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  25. Modify Results in a hangar occupation of maximum 4 a/c in times of crisis and maximum 5 a/c in times of growth. Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  26. Modify Maintenance Schedule Scenarios Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  27. Modify Maintenance Schedule Conclude • Can the modification be implemented?  Yes √ • ASAP, C-check and spread out √ • Is there enough hangar space at all times?  Yes √ • Space in hangar for technical problems and modification. • The scenarios conflict with fight schedule?  No √ • 5 airplanes grounded (B737-300 Current Generation) • Potential market demand change a threat?  No √ • Because 600 hour limit and overcapacity of hangar space Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  28. Modify • Modify Human Resource Management • How much work load needs to be coverd? • 300 hours per aircraft; 43 aircraft total. • First modification; Second modification; •  2 days longer.  1 day longer. • Standard modification duration; 4 days. • Total work load per scenario: •  13,125 hours (Excluding extra + reserve crews) • How many employees are involved to do the required modification work load? • Where do you find certified mechanics to get the job done? Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  29. Modify • Modify Human Resource Management Cont’d • Fits in regular maintenance schedule and can be covered by grounded aircraft. • How many people are needed for one modification? • And; how to get it covered at all times due to sickness and market changes? • Shifts to cover the day • Extra crew to cover 24/7 • Reserve to cover sickness (no training, is intergrated). • Total people needed for one modification: 14 Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  30. Modify • Modify Human Resource Management Cont’d • Where do you recruit adequate mechanics to get the job done? • Looking at the required amount of mechanics needed gives us the following: • Summed up gives: • Because crisis/growth difference • + high unemployment rate Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  31. Modify • Modify Human Resource Management Conclude, do we got it covered? • How many employees are involved to doing the required modification work load? • 14 people scenario 1; 25 people scenario 2; 11 people scenario 3  Yes √ • Where do you find certified mechanics to get the job done? • Netherlands expected; if not: abroad or from a third party.  Yes √ • How much work load needs to be coverd? • Differs per scenario; maximum is 19,513 hours  Yes √ • Modification can start the earliest on the 1st of April (no joke). Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  32. Modify • Modify Project Risks • Some risks from the report were already discussed including the mitigation. • The project risks are identified in a classification order according to the following diagram: Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  33. Modify • Modify Risks • Uncontrollables • Economy, fuelprice, load factors, etc. • The major project risks are: • Load factor drop (tailoringcapacity to demand) • Wingletscannotbedelivered (Air delivery) • Limitedmanpoweravailable (hirefromthird party) • Economy trend worsethanexpected (Tailoringcapacity to demand and beflexible) • Dollar price up (have sufficientfund) • These risks with their mitigation result in extra costs. Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  34. Modify • Modify Implementation – Conclude • Maintenance schedule • Human Resource Management • Project Risks • These discussed subjects show that the project is Achievable and Feasable. Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  35. Modify • Modify Financial cost’s & benefit’s Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  36. Modify • Modify Scenario Conclusion All scenariosresult in a GO on:Feasible, achievable and desirable All scenariosalsoresult in a NO-GO on:Profitability This is because the threats are yettoonegative. Thismaychange in the future Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  37. Modify • Postpone • Mandate • The research shows threepossibleoptions: Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  38. Postpone Whynotnow? • Flightdistance • Utilization of the fleet • Bad economical timing Why later? Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  39. Postpone Flight distance Average flight distance is now 505 NM • Tanger 1096NM • Rabat 1210NM • Marakech 1350NM • Tunis 960NM • Sofia 940NM • Ankara 1370NM Increases average to 580NM Increases NPV €600,000 Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  40. Postpone Utilization of the fleet Flying more frequent makes it easier to earn back the investment. • 43 B738’s 226,117h • 43 B738’s + 7 B733’s 245,767h When flying 205,000h the NPV will be increased with €3,600,000 Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  41. Postpone Bad economical timing Before recession Now Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  42. Postpone • Postpone Bad economical timing Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  43. Postpone Postpone Conclusion Postponing the modification gives time. • Time forarrangingmechanics. • Time forinitial order and delivery. • Time to investigateon more distantdestinations. • Possibility to evaluate the marketfor the best moment. To make it easier to earn back the investment. Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  44. Modify • Postpone • Mandate • The research shows threepossibleoptions: Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  45. Mandate • Environmentalregulations • ‘Green’ Image Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  46. Mandate Environmental regulations • CO2 Emission • Noise pollution Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  47. Mandate Image • Value of association • Start association • Strengthen association • Is a ‘Green’ image worth: € 7,519,449.-? Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  48. Mandateconclusion • No influencefor the B738 fleetmodification • 733 fleet • Sensitive forenvironmentalregulations • Renewal of the old 733 fleetbynew and more efficiënt aircraftwillimprove the ‘Green’ image and generatesavings Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  49. Modify • Postpone • Mandate • The research shows threepossibleoptions: Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

  50. Conclusion • YES, The maintenancedepartmentcanhandle the modification without interfering the flightschedule. • YES, The HRMdepartment is able of getting the right personnel in time. • YES, The logisticdepartment is able to makesure all materials are delivered in time. • YES, All the riskscanbeminimized • YES, The B738 modificationcanbepostponed without regulationalintervention. • YES, The modificationcanbeprofitableif: Blessing - Benjamin - Maarten - Marcel

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