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NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling

Global Observing System Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2) Data Assimilation & Modeling. NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction .

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NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling

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  1. Global Observing System Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2) Data Assimilation & Modeling NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise…. NOAA Science Serving Society….

  2. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission Lead Time and Accuracy! • Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA • Required for agency to meet service-based metrics • National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act) • Hurricane Track and Intensity • Winter Storm Warning • Precipitation Threat • Flood Warning • Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height • Operational numerical guidance: • Foundational tools used by Government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth 2

  3. NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite • Regional Bays • Great Lakes • N. Gulf of Mexico • Columbia R. Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System (CFS) Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF-NMM Waves WaveWatch III 3D-VAR DA Ecosystem Sea Nettles 3D-VAR DA GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice Ocean HYCOM Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-En-Var DA Dispersion HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMMB 3D-VAR DA Global Spectral Air Quality Short-Range Ensemble Forecast CMAQ North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB Rapid Refresh 3D-VAR DA GEFS, Canadian Global Model Global and North American Land Surface Data Assimilation Systems WRF ARW Space Weather NOAH Land Surface Model ENLIL 3

  4. Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer 24-h Snapshot 20 August 2012 Number of Nodes High Water Mark 2010 CFS NAM GEFS GFS SREF 12 18 00 06 00 Time of Day (UTC) 4

  5. Percentage of Good Forecasts GFS 5-Day 500mb AC > 0.9 v.s. Model Upgrades T382L64 (38km) to T574L64 (27km) New shallow convection; updated SAS and PBL; positive-definite tracer transport Flow-dependent error covariance; Variational QC T254L64 (55km) to T382 (38km) OSU 2-L LSM to 4-L NOHA LSM T170L42 (70km) to T254L64 (55km) AMSU-A & HIRS-3 data

  6. Process to Transition Research into NOAA Operational Model Suite • Implementation Phase • SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s • 30-day NCO parallel • Test code stability • Test dataflow • Products to NCEP Centers and EMC code developers • NCEP Centers • Evaluate impact • Assessments to NCEP OD R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase Systematic Testing • EMC Change Control Board • Scientific Integrity • Product Quality • EMC MgmtApproval • ACCOUNTABILITY • 30-day NCO parallel stable • NCEP centers approve • ACCOUNTABILITY • Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval • ACCOUNTABILITY • Generate RFC’s • Submit RFC’s to NCO Implementation

  7. 2013 HWRF pre-implementation Test Plan Not shown here: HSHAL (HBSE+Shallow Convection) – All 2010 ATL (Jet, 446), HBSE2 (Modified initialization): All 2011 ATL (Jet, 401), HPRD (Oper. HWRF w/new GFS): All 2011 ATL+EP (CCS, 664), H3GP: Stream 1.5, All 2011 ATL+EP (Jet, 800) Unprecedented T&E of about 10 different configurations, more than 8000 simulations from 64 storms on Jet & CCS Support from HFIP PO for Jet usage, Support from NCO for “devmax” usage on CCS

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