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Understanding Meteorological Forecasting: Techniques and Tools Used by Meteorologists

Meteorologists face the challenging task of making accurate weather forecasts using a variety of methods. Forecasts are categorized into nowcasting, short/medium-range, long-range, and climate predictions. Nowcasting focuses on immediate weather changes, while longer-range forecasts use sophisticated computer models based on surface and upper-air observations, previous forecasts, and global signals like ENSO. Different models, such as GFS, NAM, and ECMWF, serve various regions and time frames. This guide explores the processes and technologies that help meteorologists predict weather phenomena effectively.

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Understanding Meteorological Forecasting: Techniques and Tools Used by Meteorologists

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  1. How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast? Ross A. Lazear February 29, 2012

  2. Why the discrepancy?Forecasting is often extremely challenging! There are *many* forecasts made available to the public… *National Weather Service *The Weather Channel *AccuWeather *Wunderground *Your iPhone …etc…

  3. Types of Forecasts *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC)

  4. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  5. When will the thunderstorm hit? When will the snow taper? When will the rain change to snow/sleet/freezing rain? Nowcasting

  6. Radar Satellite Soundings Nowcasting Tools

  7. Surface (airport) observations Nowcasting Tools

  8. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  9. Computer models needed! Models use: -Current surface observations -Upper air observations -Previous forecast …and then… Short/Medium Range Forecasting

  10. From MetEd / UCAR Short/Medium Range Forecasting

  11. GFS - 16 days, global, U.S.A. NAM - 84 hours, N. America, U.S.A. HRRR/Rapid Refresh, 18 hours, U.S.A. ECMWF - 10 days, global, U.K. UKMET - global, U.K. NOGAPS - global, U.S.A. (Navy) JMA - Japan CMC - Canada WRF - Multiple domains, also run locally at Albany! Models

  12. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  13. Various global “signals” that help meteorologists forecast on longer time scales. -ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal

  14. Also… -Lots of other complex atmospheric waves in the tropics… Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal From Dr. Paul Roundy, UAlbany

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