The U.S.-Mexico BorderIssues and Dynamics Presented by Manuel F. Zamora, Ph.D. Mark Pullin, Ph.D. Assistant Professors Homeland Security
Issues and Dynamics Outline Economic relations Illegal Immigration Illicit Trafficking Drugs Humans Weapons Border Crime Violence Money Laundering Kidnapping, extortion and bribery Strategies USBP Strategic Plan aligned with National Security Plan National Border Strategy Border Enforcement Security Task Forces (21) Texas Homeland Security Alliance
U.S. – Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications • Why is Mexico of interest to the U.S.? • Bilateral economic and trade relationship • Mexico’s close proximity to the U.S. • High level of imports and exports • Strong cultural and economic ties connect the two countries • The U.S. is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico • Leading U.S. imports from Mexico (2010) • Oil and gas Motor vehicles MV parts Audio/video • $29.3 B $27.5 B $23.4 B $16.5 B • Communications equipment • $14.0 B • Leading U.S. exports • MV parts Petroleum/coal Chemicals Resin/synthetic rubbers • $12.6 B $11.9 B $7.0 B $6.2 B
Top U.S. Trading Partners: 2013 July YTD (Billions) U.S. TRADE Exports Imports TOTAL #1 Canada 150.6 166.1 316.7 #2 China 55.1 202.8 257.9 #3 Mexico 110.7 138.4 249.1 #4 Japan 32.2 68.7 100.9 #5 Germany 23.8 54.4 78.1 Trade data: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1306yr.html.retrieved August 7, 2013
Mexico-U.S. Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) • FDI consists of investments in real estate, manufacturing plants, and retail facilities in which the foreign investor owns 10% or more of the entity. • U.S. invested $90.3 billion in Mexico in 2010 • Mexico invested $12.6 billion in the U.S. in 2010 • U.S. companies are able to locate their labor-intensive operations in Mexico and lower labor costs in the overall production process. • Mexican border cities had the highest manufacturing activity • Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec, place Mexico 3rd in the world for oil reserves; 7th in current production (3.0 B bbl/day); behind Canada (3.3 B bbl/day; ahead of UAE (2.8 B bbl/day).
Foreign Investment in Mexico Automakers Yokohama-based Nissan ($400+ million) Japan’s Mazda Motor Corp ($400+ million) General Motors Corp. (Detroit, MI) ($400+ million) Honda Motor Corp. (will build $800 million plant in Celaya) Chemicals DuPont (largest world producer of titanium-dioxide pigment) $500 million to boost this ingredient for use in paints Wilmington, DE based company will expand Altamira, MX plant http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/booming-mexico-u-s-trade-buoys-kansas-city-southern-freight.html, published January 4, 2012, retrieved April 15, 2012
Demographic Comparison, 2013 MEXICO UNITED STATES Population: 115 million (53.3 pov.) 313.8 million (46.2 pov.) Median age: 27.4 37.1 Birthrate: 18.87/1,000 13.7/1,000 Death rate: 4.9/1,000 5.3/1,000 Urbanization: 78% of tot. pop. 82.0% of tot. pop. Infant mortality: 16.77/1,000 6/1,000 Life expectancy at birth: Male: 73.84 76.05 Female: 79.63 81.05 Unemployment: 5.09% (June, 2013)* 7.4% (Jul, 2013)** http://www.indexmundi.com/mexico/demographics_profile.html http://www.indexmundi.com/united_states/demographics_profile.htm * tradingeconomics.com ** data.bls.gov, also Centers for Disease Control (U.S. death rate)
Worker Remittances to Mexico Foreign currency in Mexico #1 Oil #2 Tourism #3 U.S. worker remittances (239,000 immigrant Mexicans lost their jobs, 2008; 100,000 in construction) Remittances were $25.1 billion in 2008 as workers in the U.S. sent money to family members, especially in regions of the country experiencing economic crisis or natural disasters. #3? DTO transactions and profits ($300 B Gross) http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf, published January 25, 2012, retrieved April 15, 2012 (Inter-American Development Bank, The Multilateral Investment Fund.) MX government channels to infrastructure and investment rather than consumption, although families use funds for healthcare, food, clothing, and other household expenses.
Illegal Immigration:The “magnet” is employment! Why is the border an issue? TOC/DTO create and maintain illicit corridors for border crossings that can be employed by other secondary criminal or terrorist actors or organizations. Public safety and national security concerns Federal law violations; crimes (2% sex offenders; unknown fugitives) Inflow of illegal drugs and other contraband; WMDs Terrorists (FBI Terrorist Screening Center, PPD #6 1,500 nominations on list) 2007: 11.8 – 12.4 mil. 2010: 10.8 – 11.2 mil. (2011: 11.1 mil.)(6.8 mil.; 59% from Mexico) 300,000 unauthorized inflows per year Apprehensions reached a 42-year low Philosophical shift: “prevention through deterrence” to “prevention through consequences” Up to 40 concurrent detention hearings No “catch and release;” Zero tolerance
U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions of Deportable Aliens, FY1991-FY2011) DHS Office of Immigration Statistics, Statistical Yearbook; DHS Annual Financial Report FY2011
U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions of Deportable Aliens, Southwest Border by Selected Sectors (FY 1992-FY2011) DHS Office of Immigration Statistics, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics FY2010; USBP Fiscal Year Apprehension Statistics, 2011
Smuggling Fees Paid by Unauthorized Mexican Migrants, 1980-2009 Princeton University Mexican Migration Project & University of California, San Diego Mexican Migration Field Research Program; adjusted to U.S. dollars using BLS CPI Research Series Using Current Methods (CPI-R-US)
Missing Information? According to the DHS: Documented immigrants with unexplained “overstays: 1 million 1,901 were labeled national security or public safety risks The location of 266 is unknown (Washington Times, July 30, 2013) Also: Undocumented, illegal immigrants represent many countries that pose a threat to U.S. national and homeland security: The immigrants include extremist group members and members from states with groups that pose a risk to the U.S.: Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, etc., and include some members of Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (Secretary of State, per Sec. 219, Immigration and Nationality Act).
War Without Borders Video Fueling Mexico’s Drug Trade Rafael Reyes, DEA Chief of Operations Mexico and Central America 2009 Drug Cycle: Violence and Corruption http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/world/2009-mexican-cartel/
U.S.-Mexico Border: Trafficking Facts1 Trafficking: Routes are similar and crimes are closely related Drugs90% of illicit drugs in the U.S. enter through Mexico border #1 drug use is marijuana #2 is prescription drug abuse U.S. is world’s largest importer of ecstasy (MDM; UNODC, 2010) Humans 200,000 – 300,000 illegal immigrants Sexually exploited (80%); labor trafficked (18%) Burden on U.S. social services; T and U visas for LEO assistance Weapons87% of firearms seized by MX are traced to U.S. purchases 2008: U.S. #1 in all arms deliveries ($12.2 billion; 38.4%) 2008: U.S. arms deals totaled $56.3 billion U.S. arms intercepted in China, Russia, Mexico, Philippines, Somalia, Turkmenistan & Yemen (UNODC, 2010, Globalization of Crime) 1 UNODC; US State Department; CRS Report 2011; 43% of border: federal & tribal land; Agriculture/Interior
Immigrant and Transportation Routes1 1 McCaffrey & Scales (2011) Texas Border Security: A Strategic Military Assessment
Drug Trafficking Organizations Strategic intent of Mexican cartels: “Seek to create a “sanitary zone” inside the Texas border – one county deep – that will provide sanctuary from Mexican law enforcement and . . . Enable cartels to transform Texas’ border counties into narcotics transshipment points for continued transport and distribution into the U.S.” (McCaffrey & Scales, 2011, Executive Summary). Texas DPS Safety Director Steven McCraw has testified that . . . six of seven cartels have established command and control facilities in Texas cities that rival even the most sophisticated battalion or brigade level combat headquarters (p. 22).
U.S.-Mexico Border Crime and Violence Bribery, extortion, corruption USBP LEO, politicians, government officials Assaults on federal officers Violent crime (“spillover violence”) Kidnappings for ransom (Mexico 49/day; Phoenix 359/year, 2009) “Crime rates are lower in border cities than in other large cities, and crime rates appear to have fallen faster in these border cities than in other large cities during the period of enhanced border enforcement since 1990” (CRJ, 2011, p. 32). Fear (Farmers & ranchers confronted; armed confrontations; thefts) Migrant deaths (1989-271; 2010-2011-360)
Key Strategies Personnel Deployment 45 ports of entry (18 in TX) 2,000 miles; CA, NM, AZ, TX (1,200 miles) 20,000 USBP (over 5,000 to SW border) DoD (Ch 18, Title X) National Guard (32 U.S.C. 502 (a)(f) Tactical infrastructure impede illicit cross-border activity, disrupt and restrict smuggling operations, and establish a substantial probability of apprehending terrorists seeking to enter U.S. Fences, Roads, lighting, vehicle barriers1 Surveillance assets (remote and mobile to HQ) Additional Assets: Office of Air and Marine (270 aircraft; 280 marine vessels) UAS (Predator B systems and Guardians (NASOC) 1 Illegal Immigration Reform & Immigration Responsibility Act of 1996 (14 mi. SD); to Secure Fence Act of 2006 (layered; 3 segments SW border, 850 mi; HS Secretary authorized to construct reinforced fencing not less than 700 mi SW border; additional physical barriers, roads, lighting, cameras, & sensors to gain operational control of SW border. 10-6-2011, 351 mi of pedestrian fencing; 299 mi of vehicle fencing; FY 2007 $1.5 B appropriated for fence & barriers ($400 M appropriated (FY2012)
U.S. Border Patrol Agents, Total and by Region, FY 1980-FY2011 Source:1980-1991 (Syracuse University Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse; USBP Congressional Affairs (1992-2011)
Tactical Infrastructure Appropriations & Miles of Border Fencing (FY 1996-FY2012) From INS, DHS, Congressional Budget Justification reports; In 2003, Immigration inspections from INS, customs inspections from U.. Customs, and USBP merged to form Bureau of Customs and Border Protection within DHS (SD, El Centro, Tucson, El Paso, Marfa
National Border Patrol Strategy • Establish greater probability of apprehending terrorists & weapons • Deter illegal entries through improved enforcement • Detect, apprehend, and deter smugglers of humans, drugs, and other contraband • Leverage “Smart Border” technology to multiply deterrent and enforcement effect • Reduce crime in border communities, improve QOL and economic vitality • Increase community engagement • Use equipment technology, and tactical infrastructure such as landing mat fencing, stadium lighting, and cameras and sensors to deter and detect aliens
U.S. Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime • Start at home: Take shared responsibility • Enhance intelligence & info-sharing • Protect financial system and strategic markets against TCOs • Strengthen interdiction, investigations, and prosecutions • Disrupt drug trafficking and its facilitation of other transnational threats • Build international capacity, cooperation, and partnerships
Contributions to DTO Success • Mexico • Former military • Legitimate efforts • Education • Healthcare • Festivals • Judges (Short sent.) • Hire former government officials • Corrupt businesses • Politicians • Technology (comm.) • United States • Facilitators • Fast and Furious • U.S. drug consumption • #1 cocaine; 40% • #1 heroin/MJ Colombia • #1 methamphetamine MX • Precursor chemicals • CBP (LEO) corruption • Gang involvement • Street • Motorcycle • Prison gangs
The U.S.–Mexico Border:Security Studies Issues • Strategy: “We need a multi-agency, multi-jurisdictional, multi-level effort, with industry, academia, and the general public” (Chief Mike Fisher, USBP, March 7, 2012) • Purpose: “The bilateral economic relationship with Mexico is of key interest to the U.S. because of Mexico’s proximity, the high volume of trade, and strong cultural and economic ties between the two countries” (M. Angeles Villareal, CRS Report for Congress, January 25, 2012). • CSS Program: “Border security programs are designed to address the full range of threats to the sovereignty of America’s borders, [including] the problems along the U.S.–Mexico border” (Director Robert S. Ehlers, Ph.D., CSS)
Conclusion “The border remains broadly vulnerable to illegal entries.” Princeton University & University of CA San Diego study revealed a 99% and 92+% success rate if crossing attempt exceeded one, respectively)