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Understanding Federal Responsibilities for Precipitation Frequency Estimates

This document outlines the role of the National Weather Service (NWS) in generating Precipitation Frequency Estimates in collaboration with federal water agencies. It addresses key questions about governmental responsibilities, funding, and the need for updated methodologies in estimating probable maximum precipitation. The NWS has begun integrating new technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy of these estimates, providing essential data for water-related regulatory compliance and environmental management. As demands for accurate low-frequency data increase, further understanding of funding and consensus among agencies becomes crucial.

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Understanding Federal Responsibilities for Precipitation Frequency Estimates

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  1. Precipitation FrequencyEstimatesand Federal ResponsibilitiesGeoff BonninNOAA’s National Weather ServiceGeoffrey.Bonnin@noaa.gov301-713-0640 x103

  2. Questions • Is the Fed Gov’t responsible for estimates? • Who should do it? • Regular document updates • Supporting research • Questions from the public • Who should pay? • How do we reach consensus and implement?

  3. Background? • Early 1950s • NWS nominated to make estimates for: • precipitation frequency • probable maximum precipitation • Consensus of Federal water agencies • NWS is independent – doesn’t pour concrete • De-facto National Standards • Referenced in federal, state, and local regulations • Traditional civil works to environmental management • Increasing demand for low frequencies; EPA’s NPDES • Performed At Request Of And Funded By Users • not included in NWS budget

  4. Documents Are Getting Old

  5. What is NWS Doing?

  6. New Capabilities in Use • New technologies • Regional L-moments • Confidence intervals • Updating depth-area-reduction (1957) • Probalistic temporal distributions • High resolution mapping • Web based point and click delivery • maps, charts, tables, GIS grids, documentation • Much more data is available • NWS integrated production line • Not a study – it is real • Patchwork, piecemeal studies • Not cost effective • Produce inconsistent results • NWS ready for cost effective national update • ~$1m/yr over 3 years

  7. Current Status • Precip Frequency Atlas Updates • Semiarid Southwest • published Aug 6 • Ohio Basin & Surrounding States • peer review completed Sept 14 • Puerto Rico & Hawaii; FY2004 • Probable Maximum Precipitation • No activity • Funding Pipeline Has Dried Up • NWS in danger of losing specialized expertise

  8. Requests From • Alaska • Dept of Transportation • National Transportation Research Board • Pacific Islands • Colorado • Twin Cities, Minnesota • Wisconsin/Michigan • Florida Counties • New York • FEMA • State Climatologists • Many Consultants

  9. Who Are the Federal Users? • USACE - regulation & design • FEMA – flood plain mapping • EPA – pollution discharge regulation (NPDES) • DOT/FHWA – hydrologic design • USDA/NRCS – design & erosion control • Forest Service – burned area remediation • USBR – design • ???

  10. Options • USACE continues funding • Split equally among 5-6 agencies • ~$200K/year • Folded into key current programs • FEMA; Flood Plain Mapping Initiative • EPA; NPDES

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