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Predicting the Campaign Turnout

Predicting the Campaign Turnout. The partisan brain The lessons to be learned from partisan ads Who will decide this election? Projections on key states Will Trump’s outsider positioning will defeat him? If Ads only work on the other people, why has the country spent $5B on advertising

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Predicting the Campaign Turnout

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  1. Predicting the Campaign Turnout • The partisan brain • The lessons to be learned from partisan ads • Who will decide this election? • Projections on key states • Will Trump’s outsider positioning will defeat him? • If Ads only work on the other people, why has the country spent $5B on advertising • Why social media are not very sociable

  2. The Bright Future of Post-Partisan Social PsychologyJonathan Haidt, University of VirginiaTalk given at the annual meeting ofthe Society for Personality and Social PsychologySan Antonio, TX, Jan. 27, 2011EXCERPTED SLIDES

  3. Many animals are social:

  4. But only a few are ULTRASOCIAL: Bees wasps and ants Also: termites and naked mole rats…

  5. The only non-kin-based Ultrasocial:

  6. Our evolved trick: Ability to forge a team by circling around sacred objects & principles

  7. Our evolved trick: Ability to forge a team by circling around sacred objects & principles

  8. II) Sacredness • Sacred Value: “any value that a moral community implicitly or explicitly treats as possessing infinite or transcendental significance …” (Tetlock et al., 2000) • --precludes tradeoffs. • --Threats turn us into “intuitive theologians”

  9. Our evolved trick: Ability to forge a team by circling around sacred objects & principles

  10. Our evolved trick: Ability to forge a team by circling around sacred objects & principles

  11. Heretics, Traitors, Apostates

  12. What Have You Read, Seen or Heard About Clinton and Trump in the Past Several Days? Most Frequently Used Words

  13. “I don’t even know why I need so much money. Why do I even need these commercials?”Donald Trump • 300,000 presidential commercials before 10/17 • 80% for Clinton • “Mr. Trump’s strategy, while efficient in terms of costs, may not be effective in terms of persuasion. He has let Mrs. Clinton dominate the ad war in competitive battleground states and it seems to be costing him votes.” (Lynn Vavreck, NYT 10/19/16) • This impact is on top of Clinton’s 5X1 staff advantage

  14. Rising Numbers of Negative Commercials

  15. George Packer’s “Hillary Clinton and the Populist Revolt” New Yorker, Oct. 31, 2016 The Democrats lost the white working class. The Republicans exploited it. Can Clinton win it back?

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