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Understanding QADJ and ESP HYSSR Water Supply Forecasts: Key Insights from May 2005

This report analyzes the QADJ and ESP HYSSR forecasts, both derived from the same HYSSR model but based on different inflow assumptions. It provides an overview of the water supply forecast for Libby inflow from April to August 2005, focusing on how inflow hydrographs and forecast volumes are generated. By combining current basin conditions with historical weather patterns, the report highlights the methods used in producing inflow forecasts and discusses the implications for modeling operations. Discover how these forecasts shape our understanding of water resource management and operational strategies.

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Understanding QADJ and ESP HYSSR Water Supply Forecasts: Key Insights from May 2005

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  1. QADJ versus ESP HYSSR May 4, 2005 Julie Ammann, Corps

  2. The Basics • The QADJ run and ESP HYSSR are actually output from the same model (HYSSR model) but with different inflow assumptions.

  3. WATER SUPPLY FORECAST LIBBY INFLOW: APR-AUG: 5401 KAF Types of Inflow Forecasts Inflow Hydrograph Volume Forecast • Has a definite “shape” • Was generated from a model • Combines current basin conditions with a weather pattern to generate a response in streamflows • Is a single number with no assumption as to the “shape” of the flows • Was generated from a regression equation with the following variables: snowpack, observed rain and runoff and climate indicators (SOI)

  4. Historical temperature and precipitation combinations. 10 Day weather forecast Observed basin conditions for 01 Apr 2005 ESP Inflows (ESP HYSSR) Current conditions combined with 44 historical weather patterns to produce 44 sets of inflows. Volumes may vary between the 44 years, but are all forecasts for 2005.

  5. QADJ Flows Current water supply forecast volumes, shaped 69 different ways according to monthly historical flow shapes from 1929 - 1997. The inflow for each year matches the historical shape of that year and the 2005 expected WSF volume.

  6. QADJ Tells us: With the current WSF how flows could be shaped and how that shape will affect our modeled operations. ESP HYSSR Tells us: With the current basin conditions, how could runoff volume change and how that will impact our modeled operations What do QADJ & ESP HYSSR tell us?

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