50-60 years Every we reinvent our world
Core Concepts • Great Surges of Development Creative Destruction • Techno-economic Paradigm • Life-CYCLE of a GSD • Installation: Irruption & Frenzy Stages • Turning Point • Deployment: Synergy & Maturity Stages • Hegemony follows technology/GSD • Why is it important? • Applying the model and our understanding of it
Great Surges of Development • Not just a technological revolution, but a global institutional/political/cultural revolution • Creative Destruction • Technology advances faster than society is ready for • Tensions and resistance to the new revolution from the socio-institutional sphere cause a painful decoupling process between the old regime and the new surge • The revolution is a shock, and thus, its benefits are not fully harnessed until the world system can acclimate to it and build around it
Techno-economic Paradigm • The best-practice model of capitalizing on the potential of a technological revolution • The assimilation of a tech. rev. into society and our lives, so that the new technology becomes a natural and seamless part of the way we interact • It is all-pervasive, encompassing not just the business/economic sphere but institutional and cultural practices as well
Life-CYCLE of a GSD Tech. Rev. Financial Bubble Collapse Golden Age Political Unrest Tech. Rev.
Life-CYCLE of a GSD: Installation • Gestation • The previous paradigm has matured; its industries are facing saturated markets and are looking for and investing in new ideas – a time of entrepreneurship and radical innovation • Irruption • A new technology bursts into the scene, fueled by investment money generated by firms of the old paradigm • As a techno-economic split between old and new unfolds, the economy suffers from unemployment, and either inflation or deflation • The world is changing and few entities are equipped and prepared for it • Frenzy • Financial capital takes over as the regulatory framework falls behind • Intense exploration/investment – trial and error – open competition • Rampant investment spurs the diffusion of the new paradigm • Growing rift between wealth and poverty • Financial bubble forms
Life-CYCLE of a GSD: Turning Point • The period that marks a swing from the intense individualism of Frenzy to a broader realization of the potential unlocked by the now current paradigm • The financial bubble collapses, leaving many people desperate and angry, and in the wake of the crash regulations are implemented • Excess is constrained as an institutional framework grows around and guides the paradigm
Life-CYCLE of a GSD: Deployment • Synergy • Production capital replaces finance as the chief driver of the economy • The paradigm has spread across and been accepted in all sectors of society – economic, institutional, and social – meaning its effects benefit a wider spectrum • Moral principles are in place, and a healthy rhythm of business and nearly full employment are achieved • Golden Age • Maturity • The paradigm has peaked and no longer offers growth potential • The golden age still glimmers but less substantively, and those who did not enjoy its advancements grow discontent • Unrest across all spheres ensues, and the time is ripe for the next revolution • Peripheral Expansion • Dying embers of the current paradigm: Internal markets have been tapped and the paradigm propagates across the globe
Hegemony Follows Technology • The core country, that which generally ignites the GSD and experiences most keenly the growth it creates, is the world leader • The current paradigm is, by nature, the most effective ordinance of principles, practices, and interaction • Though the core country of the previous paradigm has an undisputed advantage in remaining the core country for the next, a GSD that signals a paradigm shift creates the opportunity for other players to catch up and forge ahead
Why is it Important? To remove us from the forest: displace us from the moment, from being locked in on our current situation, so that we may see the broader, more protracted implications and, ultimately then, to think more wisely and make better decisions based on them
Applying the Model • Keep in mind this is a guide attempting to organize the past and extrapolate it into the future – the model created is not a perfect predictor but a solid template for fundamental expectations • Our Revolution: The Information Revolution • From the invention of the microprocessor to worldwide connectivity, allowing instant communication and access to media and information across multiple, portable platforms • If applicable, where are we now in the model’s timeline? • Turning Point? • Just experienced a collapse of the financial (and housing) market • Regulations and oversight are gradually being implemented • More institutional guidelines (be they of a governmental nature or established within the private/business realm) are needed to determine and govern the standards of our current paradigm
Applying the Model 1971 1990s-early 2000s mid 2000s 2007/8 – present 2021 2031 (Tech. Rev. – Intel’s Microprocessor) (First Fin. Bubble and Collapse – Dot Coms) (Second Fin. Bubble – Housing and Wall Street) (Second Collapse – Turning Point?) (Golden Age?) (Political Unrest and next GSD?)
They had everything • Great Idea:Social Networking; Photos; Locations; Mobile! • Luxurious Team: Founder---- Bill Nguyen (Onebox.com/Lala) CEO--------- Peter Pham (Billshrink) CPO--------- DJ Patil (Chief Scientist in LinkedIn) • Huge Financing: $ 41 million VC (without serious Business Plan )
What’s Wrong with COLOR ? • Huge First-Round Financing gave team huge pressure? • Terrible User Experience : Users do not know how to play it; If there are no other users around, I can not use it; People heard----installed----tested----ignored----deleted • Bad user experience and 41 million-breaking news combined as a terrible negative effects.
Chinese Tech-Companies in US Security Market • Almost every mainstream platform/ application in china can be found a prototype in US. • Every Chinese Tech-Company was fostered by US/Global financial capital at the beginning. • Financial capital made extremely profitable deal in these trades.
Brief Introductions • BAIDU went public on Aug. 5, 2005, at $27 a share. • When trading ended that day, shares of Baidu closed at $122, up 354%. • The biggest opening on Nasdaqsince the dot-com peak in 2000. • VC at Early Stage: IDG/ Draper Fisher Jurveston/ Peninsula Capital • Google has 2.6% share at first.
YOUKU went public on Dec. 8, 2010, at $12.8 a share. • When trading ended that day, shares of YOUKU closed at $33.44: • Up 161%. • The biggest opening on NYSE since 2005. • VC atEarly Stage: Bain Capital/ Sutter Hill Ventures/ Farallon Capital