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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on recent rainfall, monsoon prediction, climatology, and atmospheric circulation patterns. Visit the link for more details.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 06, 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over parts of northern & central India, Koreas, coastal eastern China, Papua New Guinea, and parts of south eastern Australia. Elsewhere the monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, below normal rainfall deficits are visibly noted along the coastal areas of southern peninsular India, eastern China, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia, Cambodia, and Papua New Guinea.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts have generally been above normal over coastal Tamilnadu state of southern peninsular India, Vietnam, the Philippines, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is scanty. At present, there are no tropical storms of any kind anywhere in the global tropical ocean basins.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over parts of northern & central India, Koreas, coastal eastern China, Papua New Guinea, and parts of south eastern Australia. Elsewhere the monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal levels. For the past 30 days, below normal rainfall deficits are visibly noted along the coastal areas of southern peninsular India, eastern China, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia, Cambodia, and Papua New Guinea. In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts have generally been above normal over coastal Tamilnadu state of southern peninsular India, Vietnam, the Philippines, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is scanty. At present, there are no tropical storms of any kind anywhere in the global tropical ocean basins. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts below normal over India, Laos, and Vietnam, more rainfall over south and eastern China in the second week, and a mixed pattern elsewhere.
