HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

2. HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH Earth's population: 6 billion (Oct 12, 1999) Every second, five people are born and two people die, a net gain of three people. Every day, +250,000 = 2 x Irvine This year, +87,000,000 = Mexico This decade +1,000,000,000 = China

4. Thomas Malthus (1798) “An Essay on the Principle of Population” • Populations grow geometrically while supporting resources grow arithmetically • Population, if not purposefully checked (“preventative checks”), would outpace resources and lead to unplanned “positive checks” that would return population to sustainable levels

6. Crop Yield and Fertilizer Input • “Green revolution”: • high-yielding crop varieties • chemical fertilizers • pesticides • irrigation • mechanization Global Fertilizer use

7. Net primary productivity (NPP)and “Carrying Capacity” (“How many People can the Earth Support?) • Prior to human impact, NPP was about 150 billion tons of organic matter per year. • Humans have destroyed about 12% of the terrestrial NPP, and use or co-opt additional 27%. • Thus we have already appropriated about 40% of the terrestrial food supply • If we appropriate ALL of the terrestrial food capacity, the planet could support 2.5 x 6 = 15 billion

8. Billions of people Global“Carrying Capacity”

9. Human dominance or alteration of several major components of the Earth system • transformed or degraded 39-50% of the Earth's land surface • use 8% of the primary productivity of the oceans (25% for upwelling areas and 35% for temperate continental shelf areas). • increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by 30% • use more than half of the accessible surface fresh water • over 50% of terrestrial nitrogen fixation is caused by human activity • on many islands, more than half of plant species have been introduced by man; on continental areas the fraction is 20% or more • about 20% of bird species have become extinct in the past 200 years, almost all of them because of human activity • 22% of marine fisheries are overexploited or depleted, 44% more are at the limit of exploitation

10. Coastal Zone Color ScannerGlobal chlorophyll NOVEMBER 1978 to JUNE 1986

11. The Global Biosphere (September 97 - August 98)

12. Upwelling off Cape Town, South Africa, 16 Sept. 1997

13. Chlorophyll West of Galapagos Islands Normal El Niño

14. Gulf of Mexico (23 February 1998)

15. POPULATION AND AVAILABILITY OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES Total Per Capita 1990 2010 Change (%) Change (%) Population (millions) 5,290 7,030 33 Fish Catch (million tons) 85 102 20 -10 Irrigated Land 237 277 17 -12 (million hectares) Cropland (million hectares) 1,444 1,516 5 -21 Rangeland and Pasture 3,402 3,540 4 -22 (million hectares) Forests (million hectares) 3,413 3,165 -7 -30 Source: Postel, S. "Carrying capacity: Earth's bottom line." State of the World, 1994.

16. Decline of Fisheries

17. Regional population patterns: Population density Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network.

22. The “demographic transition”

23. Reduction in childhood death rates • DDT used against mosquitoes that transmit malaria • Childhood immunization used against cholera, diphtheria, etc. • Antibiotics used against bacterial infections

24. “Rate of Natural Increase”

25. “Rate of Natural Increase”

28. People over 100 years old in U.S.: 4,000 in 1970; 64,000 in 1990 projected 1.4 million in 2040

33. China (20% of world’s population) • "one-child-per-couple" policy since 1979: • Rewards for having only one child: grants, additional maternity leave, increased land allocations. Children get preferential treatment in education, housing, and employment. • Couples punished for refusing to terminate unapproved pregnancies, for giving birth when under the legal marriage age, and having an approved second child too soon. • Penalties include fines, loss of land grants, food, loans, farming supplies, benefits, jobs and discharge from the Communist Party. • In many provinces sterilization is required after the couple has had two children.

34. China’s Population Policy Children per woman: 1970: 5.01 1995: 1.84 Population still growing! Population in 2000: 1.3 billion Projected for 2025: 1.5 billion Use of abortion Forcible abortions and sterilization Infanticide Criticisms:

35. India 1998: 853 million. 2025 predicted: 2 billion

36. U.N. Conference on Population (Cairo, 1994) "Programme of Action" (182 nations) Goal: to stabilize human population at 7.8 billion by 2050. 1. Provide universal access to family-planning and reproductive health programs. 2. Recognize that environmental protection and economic development are not necessarily antagonistic. Promote free trade, private investment and development assistance. 3. Make women equal participants in all aspects of society - by increasing women's health, education, and employment. 4. Increase access to education. Provide information and services for adolescents to prevent unwanted pregnancies, unsafe abortion, and the spread of AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases. 5. Ensure that men fulfill their responsibility to ensure healthy pregnancies, proper child care, promotion of women's worth and dignity, prevention of unwanted pregnancies, and prevention of the spread of AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases.

37. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) • Programs to improve: • pre- and post-natal mother's health • access to voluntary family planning programs and contraception • STD and HIV education and prevention • U.S. funding withheld for many years because of UNFPA’s support of China’s policies • U.S. funding restored for F.Y. 2000 at level of $25 million

38. International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) 1. To meet the demand and unmet need for quality services; 2. To promote sexual and reproductive health for all; 3. To eliminate unsafe abortion; 4. To take affirmative action to gain equity, equality and empowerment for women; 5. To help young people understand their sexuality and to provide services that meet their demands; 6. To maintain the highest standards of care throughout the Federation.