American Political Culture: Demographics and Public Opinion

1. Chapter 6 Who are we? How do we become socialized politically? How is political data gathered? What do Americans value? How politically active are Americans?

2. Learning Target 6.1 • Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics • Students can give an example of a political ramifications for each of the following: • Minority majority • Immigration trends • The aging of the US

3. Americans are woefully uninformed about political policy issues – even when they think they know something. • Let’s watch • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzEr23XJwFY • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ugJZhL-cbc

4. Public Opinion The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues.

5. How do we know what public opinion is? • Take a poll…

7. Here are the results from the Quinnipiac University Poll Wanna do another one?

9. These are the results of the NPR Poll

10. It is rare to see American’s agree in large numbers • 86% of Americans saw the 9/11 attacks as an Act of War. • 93% said we should go to war if we knew who was responsible • 85% favored hitting Afghanistan if Osama bin Laden was responsible and Afghanistan wouldn’t turn him over. • 69% still agreed even if the war was long and innocent people died.

11. The Science of Demographics • Study of population changes – the actual enumeration of the population taken every ten years through the Census • Only 72% responded – the other 28% were visited by a Census worker

12. A Nation of Immigrants- 3 waves • Early-mid 19th century – northwestern Europeans (English, Irish, Germans, Scandinavians) • Late 19th – Early 20th century – Southern and eastern Europeans (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians) • Current – Hispanics and Asians

13. How do they get here? • Up to 1 million new immigrants legally admitted every year. • Most come on the basis of family unification • US citizens can bring spouses, fiancés and unmarried children, siblings over 21 and parents

14. How do they get here? • Work Visa – some are for a limited time – some for “specialized workers” • Student Visa – hoops to jump through if you want to stay permanently • Visa Lottery – about 50,000 a year for countries with low immigration rates to US • Investor – Invest $500,000 in a business of at least 5 employees • There are also quotas by country

15. How do they get here? • Asylum Seekers: People may also show up at a U.S. port of entry and seek asylum if they can prove they have been or could be persecuted in their home country because of their race, religion, nationality, participation in a certain social group or because of their political opinions. Anyone who seeks the same protections from outside the U.S. is considered a refugee. Anyone who is illegally in the United States can also seek asylum protection.

16. Illegals • About 500,000 per year • About 11 million total • A lot of myths about “dangerous illegals” • Economy could not survive without them

17. The Melting Pot What do these images suggest about the concept of a melting pot?

18. Some suggest we are more like this: How is this a different analogy?

19. What is the “minority majority?” It is predicted that by 2060 Hispanic, Black and Asian Americans will together outnumber White Americans. It has already happened in 97 counties in the US

20. As minority populations continue to outgrow the white majority – what happens to the political clout of the majority?

21. Hispanic Americans • 17 percent of the population • Also concentrated in urban areas • Have surpassed African Americans as the largest minority group in America • Beginning to gain political ground especially in the South • The biggest issue is illegal immigration. Of the 11 million illegals – 59% are from Mexico

22. African Americans • 12 percent of the population • 1 in 8 Americans is a descendant of a slave • A higher proportion are economically and politically disadvantaged • 24% live below the poverty line (Whites = 9%) • Concentrated in urban areas • Number of African Americans in political office has risen 600% since 1970 • Two blacks have served as Sec. of State and Obama’s presidency are notable political advances

23. Asian Immigrants • The most well off group • Only 6 % of the population • More than 50% over the age of 25 have a degree (twice the national average) • Median family income is higher than whites • The super-achievers of the minority majority

24. Native Americans • 1 percent of the population • Largely live in poverty 39% on reservation, 29% non-reservation • Over 10 % unemployment for over 5 years (still in Great Recession • 1 in 10 live without indoor plumbing or safe water • 95% of the Casino money goes to 5% of the Native American population

25. Political Culture • While we live in an ethnically and racially diverse country – there is a common political culture. We do share a set of overall values as Americans. • What do you think some of those values are? • Are we losing our “identity”? What is the minority-majority doing to our national culture? Good/Bad or Neither – just different.

26. Reapportionment • The process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census. The population is generally moving South and West

27. America is aging • Fastest growing age group in the US – citizens over 65 74 years young

28. How is this changing demographics? • Florida now has 35 reps in the House up from 22 in 1962. • NY is down by 1/3. • Why? Sun Belt is growing • Creating problems for Social Security • 1960 – 5.7 workers for every retiree. Today 3 workers for every retiree (2040 will be 2) • What are the political ramifications?

29. Learning Target 6.2 • Explain how the agents of socialization influence the development of political attitudes • Students can explain how they came to develop their political identity

30. Political Socialization • How did you come to view the political world the way you do? • Mostly informal • Family • Time • Emotionally committed • Genetics (there was actually a twins study showing that genetics plays a role in shaping political attitudes.)

31. Political Socialization • Mass Media (more screen time than school time) • Called the “new parent” • But y’all don’t watch TV news much and it shows in your lack of political knowledge • Schools

32. All governments use schools • Schools – while third in influence this is the most obvious intrusion of the government into Americans’ socialization. Hello Pledge… • This can turn sinister depending on the goals of the government

33. So who are we?

34. Who are your parents?

35. Side by side comparison

36. The Impact of Aging • Aging increases political participation • It strengthens party attachment

37. Political Socialization is Learned • Learn to vote • Learn to pick a political party • Learn to evaluate political events • All work to create public opinion • So how do we know what public opinion is?

38. Learning Target: 6.3 • Describe public opinion research and modern methods of polling • Students will create their own polling questions, elicit responses and disaggregate the data

39. Create a poll • George Gallup – created polling in 1932

40. It’s not all about elections…

41. Let’s make our own polls • Handout • Google Forms • Assignment – due 1/28

42. How do polls work? • A sample represents the whole. Like a drop of blood will reveal what a doctor needs to know about you, a small sample of the population reveals how the whole country sees things – how small? 1000 – 1500 for the whole country. • The key is random sampling. Everyone should have an equal probability to be selected.

43. Sampling Error • The level of confidence in the findings of a poll. • Represents within a margin of error. +3/-3. This is called sampling error. If Harte and Feliciano are polling at 47 – 44 with +3/-3 margin of error – that is a dead heat. • The more people interviewed – the more confident one can be of the results – size ALONE is not enough.

44. Just how accurate are they?

45. Literary Digest goes out of business after their poll predicted this guy would beat FDR in his second election. Why did that happen? How did they get it so wrong?

46. Random Digit Dialing • Calls are placed to randomly chosen exchanges – both listed and unlisted numbers – this is done by automated dialing programs • Only allowed on landlines • Cell phones have to be manually dialed so more expensive because you have to pay people to make calls.

47. Problems • A tiny percentage don’t have any phone at all. • People don’t answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number • Are people who answer a type of person? • How much does it cost to run a poll if you need 1500 responses and 80% don’t answer? • It’s only going to get more expensive as people cut the cord and landlines disappear – or the laws will have to change.

48. Solutions • Web polling • Pay people to be in a group that will answer • No internet – no problem – provided free of charge

49. They know we hate it – why do they do it? • It is a “tool for democracy” • Policymakers can keep in touch with changing opinions on the issues • Policymakers can respond to public opinion and shift course

50. They know we hate it – why do they do it? • Critics say it makes politicians more concerned with following than leading • Politicians fear making a choice that will get them booted from office Nothing is more dangerous than to live in the temperamental atmosphere of a Gallup poll, always taking one’s pulse and taking one’s temperature…There is only one duty, only one safe course, and that is to try to be right and not to fear to do or say what you believe.