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Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010. Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC. NATIONAL GDP GROWTH. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES. NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES. SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009.

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Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

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  1. RECENT ECONOMIC ANDRESIDENTIAL MARKETTRENDS AND FORECASTPORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREATICOR TITLEJanuary 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

  2. NATIONAL GDP GROWTH

  3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES

  4. NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009

  5. RESIDENTIAL LOAN BALANCES THAT WILL EXPERIENCE PAYSHOCK

  6. HOME PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: Case-Schiller

  7. National-Standard & PoorsCase-Shiller Home Price Indices

  8. National-Standard & PoorsCase-Shiller Home Price Indices

  9. Area 147 …LO/WL Average Sales Price

  10. Area 151 …Wilsonville Average Sales Price

  11. COMMERCIAL PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: MIT

  12. NATIONAL HOME SALES TRENDS SOURCE: NAR

  13. FINANCING FOR HOMEBUYERSOCTOBER 2009 SOURCE: Campbell Communications

  14. YEAR OVER YEAREMPLOYMENT CHANGEPortland Metro Area SOURCE: OLMIS

  15. EMPLOYMENT CHANGEBY SECTOR – Portland Metro AreaSep-08-Sep-09 SOURCE: OLMIS

  16. EXPANDING AND DECLINING INDUSTRY SECTORS - OREGON SOURCE: OLMIS

  17. UNEMPLOYMENT RATEBaseline and with Discouraged SOURCE: BLS

  18. NET CHANGE IN POPULATIONPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management

  19. POPULATION BY COUNTYLast Ten Years SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management

  20. RESIDENTIAL PERMIT TRENDS

  21. HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau

  22. CMA – Vacancy

  23. RENTAL VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau

  24. ECONOMIC/DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY • CONFIDENCE LOW • High Unemployment • Significant Percentage of Negative Equity • BANKS WILL REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE • Residential Bust Followed by Commercial Bust • Foreclosures Likely to Continue • LOCAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEGATIVE • Loss of 60,000 Jobs • Employment Back at 2005 Levels • PRICING APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM • Lots of Residential Overhang Remains

  25. OWNERSHIP RESIDENTIAL MARKET

  26. CASE-SHILLER INDEX SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller, Seasonally Adjusted

  27. PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS

  28. HOUSING TRENDS

  29. PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS

  30. PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE FORECAST

  31. STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHSPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

  32. STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHSPORTLAND METRO AREA

  33. RESIDENTIAL INVENTORYPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

  34. RESIDENTIAL INVENTORYPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

  35. NEW LISTINGSAND CLOSED SALESPORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

  36. UNIT INVENTORYBY GEOGRAPHY AND TYPE

  37. RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY TRENDS

  38. STANDING INVENTORY IN MONTHS

  39. STANDING INVENTORYBY PRICE RANGE – SEPT-09

  40. STANDING INVENTORYBY PRICE AND COUNTY – SEPT-08

  41. RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORYPORTLAND METRO AREA

  42. ESTIMATED INVENTORY OF LOTS IN MONTHS SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

  43. PENDING LOT INVENTORYPORTLAND METRO AREA

  44. MARKET CONCLUSIONS • FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING • Standing Inventory at 6.5 Months • Very Low New Home Inventory • THREATS REMAIN ON HORIZON • Pricing Stabilizing, but Foreclosures Coming • Unemployment Too High – Will Peak in 2010 • PRICING POWER LIMITED • Shadow Inventory • Limited Confidence • CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

  45. MARKET CONCLUSIONS • FIRST TIME TAX CREDIT • Less Effective over Time • May be Setting Up FHA for Crash • CHANGE IN PRODUCT TYPE • First Time Homebuyer Target • Loss in Equity Will Impact Move-Up Markets • METRO – URBAN GROWTH REPORT • Not Even Trying Anymore • Expect No New Residential Land

  46. PRELIMINARY UGRRESIDENTIAL CAPACITY

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