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POLES Inputs

POLES Inputs

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POLES Inputs

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  1. POLES Inputs Grenoble – 11th April 2011 Elie Bellevrat PACT third plenary technical workshop

  2. 1. Dialogue between VLEEM and POLES 2. Working process for quantification 3. Translating PACT story-lines in POLES

  3. Articulation of the models for PACT scenarios Back-casting approach in VLEEM model to assess the fundamentals of energy demand across urban-rural patterns Simulation process with the POLES model, based on VLEEM outputs to produce integrated Climate-Energy projections => Soft-Link between the two models POLES Inputs – PACT

  4. Models relative coverage POLES World (incl. detailed regions) VLEEM EU27 (as a whole) POLES requires to define a complete macro-economic environment at world scale for each country/region VLEEM outputs will serve as inputs to POLES for the EU27 energy demand context => We need to set up the overall energy context according to the PACT story-lines POLES Inputs – PACT

  5. POLES: a « multi-issues » analytical model • POLES : Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems Useful Energy (from VLEEM EU27) Activity indicators (from VLEEM EU27)

  6. 1. Dialogue between VLEEM and POLES 2. Working process for quantification 3. Translating PACT story-lines in POLES

  7. Building connexions between VLEEM and POLES • Some VLEEM outputs will be used as POLES inputs or will help to calibrate the POLES model • We need to define a Dialogue Matrix between the two models in order to ensure a soft translation of the story-lines as quantified by VLEEM into the POLES model • Data format as delivered by the VLEEM model • There is 1 spreadsheet per scenario • Data are aggregated for the EU27 region; • Data show a breakdown between areas (urban vs rural and within urban areas, between core, 1st ring and other cities); • There are three time horizons (2000 = base year, 2025 and 2050); • The POLES model needs data inputs • On a country-basis level, for EU27 but also rest of the World • The “global” version of the model has no breakdown of urban areas POLES Inputs – PACT

  8. The Dialogue Matrix between VLEEM and POLES (1) • Macro-economy • Population • GDP growth • Number of persons per Household • Households • Number of dwellings per energy class (ie. Efficiency) and per construction period (25 years periods) • Stand. Cons. (=2000) • Med. Cons. (LEnH & LexH) • Low Cons. (PH & ZEH & +EH) • Useful energy demand per energy class and construction period • (Services) POLES Inputs – PACT

  9. The Dialogue Matrix between VLEEM and POLES (2) • Transport • Private mobility • Number of cars per capita • Average mileage of cars • Technological diffusion (cars fleet and “vkm”) : conventional, hybrid, electric vehicles • Energy consumption by fuels: oil, biofuels, electricity • Public mobility • Public mobility by transport modes (“pkm”) : bus, rail, air transport • Energy consumption by fuels: oil, biofuels, electricity • (Goods transport) POLES Inputs – PACT

  10. Time-line for the PACT scenarios quantification • Already done: • Definition of the Dialogue Matrix between VLEEM and POLES • First data exchanges on the first scenario (S1 - MLT) have been done between the two models • Calibration of the first scenario has begun in the POLES model from VLEEM outputs • Translation of the general story-lines into the POLES model has begun (see next section of the presentation) • Next steps: • Finish to calibrate the first scenario on VLEEM outputs • Calibrate the two other scenarios (S2 – IVS and 3 – MLH) • Finish to define the general energy-climate context of the scenarios, based on the PACT story-lines POLES Inputs – PACT

  11. 1. Dialogue between VLEEM and POLES 2. Working process for quantification 3. Translating PACT story-lines in POLES

  12. Story-lines : keywords to translate in POLES language • S1 – Managing Limits through Technology (MLT) • Global Cooperation, Market, Growth, Regulation, Binding targets, Environment, Support, Technologies, Productivity, Global Carbon trading, Mitigation • S2 – Independence through Voluntary Simplicity (IVS) • Regional Integration, Stagnation, Welfare, Emission quotas, Efficiency, Renewables, Efficiency, Subsidies, Carbon taxes, Carbon trading, Mitigation • S3 – Meeting Limits – the Hard way (MLH) • Protectionism and Isolationism, Recession, Geopolitical tensions, High prices, De-regulation, Inequalities, Adaptation POLES Inputs – PACT

  13. Translation of PACT story-lines into numbers Demography Economic Growth Regulations and Business Resources Climate Regime Power technologies Efficiency (indications from VLEEM) Urban Schemes (from VLEEM + LEPII’s developments of POLES) Land-use and Biomass POLES Inputs – PACT

  14. Definition of the macro-economic context in the PACT scenarios • General context (macro-economy) as defined from VLEEM for EU27 and inspired by WEC 2007 global energy projections for the other regions: • Demography : WB for historical data, adaptation from WEC and UN for projections (up to 2100) • GDP growth : WB for historical data, adaptation from WEC for projections and convergence of the per capita GDP growth rates to 2100 POLES Inputs – PACT

  15. Example: Population in S1 - MLT (million people) EU27 represents 7% of world population over the 2010-2050 period OECD share decreases from 18% to 15% of world population in 2050 POLES Inputs – PACT

  16. Example: GDP Growth in S1 - MLT Trends in GDP per capita : long-term convergence, despite a delay from the emerging world POLES Inputs – PACT

  17. Comparison of macro-economic assumptions across PACT scenarios Differentiation between the WEC scenarios is not so high (should be larger in PACT?) • GDP per capita in 2050 • Demography • Global population ranges between : - 9.47 bn people in S1 - and 9.52 bn people in S2 - (almost identical in S3) • Contrast between population scenarios will come from the EU27 assumptions (VLEEM), in particular those related to immigration POLES Inputs – PACT

  18. Fossil fuel resources in the PACT scenarios • PACT scenarios are generally not too optimistic on fossil fuel resources, so that a stress is to appear in the mid/long-term in most of the scenarios • In particular, this should “by itself” trigger the transition towards a post-carbon economy in the third scenario (Meeting the Limits, the Hard Way) • Main assumptions across the scenarios: • In all scenarios, resources are supposed to be limited to what we already know today, even if reserves are supposed to develop according to discovery process (ie. URR cannot increase anymore) • In addition in S3 (MLH), the development of oil production capacities in the gulf countries is constrained, mainly due to geopolitical tensions (dispute on resource and price, possible conflicts...) • How to deter the global economy from coal in S3 ? (see next section, carbon value) POLES Inputs – PACT

  19. Definition of Climate Regimes scenarios (1) Different Climate Regimes are to be defined across the PACT scenarios They refer to various configurations following the international negotiations on climate change, the possible call to market... How many Carbon Values in S2? Country grouping, sectoral policies... Small carbon value in S3: exclusion of coal in final consumption and power sector (in particular in developing countries) POLES Inputs – PACT

  20. Definition of Climate Regimes scenarios (2) Indicative carbon values for the PACT scenarios POLES Inputs – PACT

  21. The role of technologies in the PACT scenarios (1) • Crucial role of the power sector in a post-carbon world! • But not only: biomass (in final consumption), efficient end-use technologies (incl. heat-pumps)... • The role of renewable energy sources will be crucial in PACT scenarios, generally speaking renewable technologies will diffuse a lot, even if the drivers behind this development might differ: • S1 : subsidized centralized renewables: wind, biomass (incl. biofuels), HT geothermal • S2 : subsidized decentralized renewables: local solar, wind, biomass, geothermal sources • S3 : development of local renewables as an alternative to fossil fuel (local incentives) POLES Inputs – PACT

  22. The role of technologies in the PACT scenarios (2) • Nuclear is one of the least cost post-carbon technology, but the institutional context and the public acceptability might affect its future development • S1 : favourable, large-scale solution (but low implication of gov. ?) • S2 : unfavourable, small-scale solutions (but high implication of gov. ?) • CCS is often seen as a solution for a low-emissions future but in the PACT scenarios it will only be considered as a transition technology with a limited role to play, because (see POLES dev. this afternoon): • Uncertainty on the technology (large-scale feasibility, costs, environmental and health concerns...) • This technology is not in line with the “post-carbon” as defined in the story-lines POLES Inputs – PACT

  23. « Post-Carbon » Bio-energy availability and associated land-use More diversity S1 - Mid-potential International trade Technology More attention to Wealth More attention to Environment S2 - Low-potential No trade Recreation Food security S3 - High-potential International trade Stress on biomass and land-use resources More quality POLES Inputs – PACT

  24. Elie Bellevrat Senior Analyst