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2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation

2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation. June 4, 2007 St. Louis Modeling Workgroup Meeting. 2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Point Sources. Incorporated CENRAP Base G inventory Corrected stacks and coordinates

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2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation

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  1. 2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation June 4, 2007 St. Louis Modeling Workgroup Meeting

  2. 2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Point Sources • Incorporated CENRAP Base G inventory • Corrected stacks and coordinates • Added sources previously missing in Arkansas • Updated SO2 emissions for Noranda Aluminum in Missouri • Incorporated VISTAS Base G inventory • Removed agricultural ammonia emissions that were double-counted with MRPO area source ag ammonia inventory • Fixed day-of-week temporal issue with Missouri EGUs

  3. 2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Non-Point Sources • Onroad mobile • Incorporated EW Gateway VMT data for St. Louis NAA counties • Corrected M6 inputs for MO-side St. Louis NAA counties • Area sources • Applied transport factors to CENRAP dust emissions • Added missing MN dust emissions: construction, mining, ag tilling • Fixed hour-of-day temporal issue with ag ammonia

  4. 2002 Annual Point Source NOx & SO2 Emissions - Selected CENRAP & VISTAS States Note: MRPO, WRAP, MANE-VU point source inventories did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.

  5. 2002 Annual Agricultural NH3 Emissions -CENRAP States Note: The double-counting of ag ammonia emissions in the point and area inventories only occurred in KS, MO, NE, and OK.

  6. 2002 Summer Weekday Onroad Mobile Emissions - Illinois and Missouri Note: For all states except Illinois and Missouri, onroad mobile emissions did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.

  7. 2002 Annual Dust PM-2.5 Emissions - CENRAP States Note: For states outside CENRAP, dust emissions did not change significantly from Base 4 to Base 5.

  8. St. Louis PM2.5 MPE • 2002 Base 5 Annual Emissions Changes • St. Louis Monitoring Networks: • Federal Reference Method (FRM) for total PM2.5 mass • 16 sites in and near St. Louis (only 9 used) • Speciated Trends Network (STN) • Speciated PM2.5: SO4, NO3, EC, OC, other PM2.5

  9. St. Louis Monitoring Networks = STN Site

  10. PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

  11. PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

  12. PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

  13. PM2.5 36km & 12km for Q1 at Blair St.

  14. PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

  15. PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

  16. PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

  17. PM2.5 36km & 12km for Q3 at Blair St.

  18. PM2.5 36km at all STN Stations (2-3)

  19. PM2.5 Other STN 36km for Q1-Q4

  20. PM2.5 FRM at Margaretta 36km for Q1-Q4

  21. PM2.5 36km MPE at all FRM Stations (9)

  22. Conclusions • The largest performance change between Base4 and Base5 occurred in “PM2.5 Other” • Statistically, Q1 & Q4 improved and Q2 & Q3 did not (all predictions were lower) • No substantive changes in model performance for SO4, OC, EC, NH3 and NO3 • Poor performance for Organic Carbon and Nitrate remain an issue

  23. Recommendations • Assess reasonableness of seasonal dust (crustal PM2.5) profiles • Update biogenic emissions using new MEGAN model • Incorporate updated speciation profiles (CB-05)

  24. PM2.5 Control • PM2.5 Implementation Rule • Attainment date extension • Potential need • Projected Year • RFP demonstrations • RACT demonstrations • “Tightening” of growth/control assumptions used in 8-hour ozone SIP • Pollutants of concern • Regional vs. local control

  25. 2009 Base 5 Controls • Point Sources • NOx SIP Call rule • MACT standard • IL NOx RACT • CAIR Trading Program (IPM 2.1.9) • Onroad and Offroad Mobile • Tier 2 rule (light-duty vehicle engine standards and low-sulfur gasoline) • Heavy-duty diesel engine standards and low-sulfur diesel • Tier 4 rule (offroad mobile engine standards) • I/M and RFG

  26. Preliminary 2002-2009 SO2 Emissions: Missouri and Illinois Totals Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

  27. Preliminary 2002-2009 NOx Emissions: Missouri and Illinois Totals Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

  28. Preliminary 2002-2009 VOC Emissions: Missouri and Illinois Totals Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

  29. Big SO2 Sources in St. Louis NAA (TPY)

  30. PM2.5 Control Rulemaking Schedule • For the purposes of Missouri’s rulemaking schedule, decisions need to occur this summer • These include pollutants of concern identification, RACT determinations, RFP findings, and attainment demonstration

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