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THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE

Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group (TFIT-WG) Dept. of Electromechanical Engineering University of Beira Interior Covilhã - Portugal. THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE. João C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. Devezas (PhD).

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THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE

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  1. Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group (TFIT-WG) Dept. of Electromechanical Engineering University of Beira Interior Covilhã - Portugal THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE João C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. Devezas(PhD) IV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION 19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal

  2. Interest of the Work • To verify if the substitution of the Non-solid Fossil for the alternative energies sources will happen in the future

  3. Aims • To demonstrate the relation between substitution of primary energy sources and socio-economic development - structural long waves; • Making use of technological forecasting tools, it is presented a future perspective in which the substitution process points towards alternative energies sources.

  4. Initial Considerations [1] • Energy needs are related to three main factors : - population growth; - economic development; - technological progress.

  5. Initial Considerations[2] W C O NG H N • The long and gradual substitution among the primary energy sources; • The domain of coal during a long period of time, reaching more than two thirds of the consumed primary energy; • The almost simultaneous introduction of oil and natural gas; • The peak of oil consumption in the seventies, coincident with the oil crisis  Beginning of the Turbulence.

  6. Initial Considerations[3] • First, the steam engine (associated to coal); • Secondly, the increase of the diversification of the final use technologies and the energy sources diversification (majority to oil)

  7. Technological Transformations[1] • The 1sttransformation (1770-1800) was linked with the substitution of wood for coal as primary energy source, with consequences in iron-making, in fuelling the first steam engine, in building the first canals and in mechanizing cotton spinning; • The 2ndtransformation (1830-1850) was related to the use of the steam power to the textile industry and to transportation (railways and steam boat). This transformation, along with the first one, is associated to the “1st Industrial Revolution”

  8. Technological Transformations[2] • - The 3rdtransformation(1860-1900) was a complex one: it centered itself on steel-making and on the mechanization of manufacturing, on illumination, telephones, electrification and on the internal combustion engines; - It was also characterized by the beginning of the substitution of coal by oil as primary energy source, being called the “2nd Industrial Revolution”;

  9. Technological Transformations[3] • The 4thtransformation (1930-1950) was centered on synthetic materials and electronics; • The 5thtransformation, beginning around 1980, centers itself on the convergence of computers and telecommunications;

  10. Summary:

  11. Future Perspective [1] • Wood will have its “dusk” (market share  1%), as traditional energy, by 2010-2015; • Coal will have its “dusk” between 2040 and 2060; • Among the FNS, natural gas can surpass oil by 2040-2050; • But, NG will be difficultly assumed as main primary energy, if the alternative energies are considered in the totality, being assumed as a FNS “up-grade” and assumed as a transition fuel; • FNS can stay in the leadership up until 2050-2070, moment in which they will be surpassed by the group of the alternative energies;

  12. Future Perspective [2] • Nuclear fission will remain as a source of energy, even having the possibility to increase its market share, being very important for the consolidation of the alternative energies, even if not in short terms; • Nuclear fusion, as commercial energy, will be difficultly available before 2050-2060; • In short terms, the most effective way to reduce the greenhouse effect is to improve the fossil fuels combustion efficiency;

  13. FNS Alter W C 1ªK W 2ªK W 3ªK W 4ªK W 5ªK W 6ªK W The economic Long Waves can help in the tendencies extrapolation for the primary energy sources?

  14. Conclusions • There are no doubts that the primary energy sources are associated to the major technological transformations and consequently associated to the structural long waves; • It is possible to point out a progressive substitution of the FNS by the alternative energies andit is believable that we are moving toward alternative energies; • Consequently, it is possible THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE on THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE;

  15. Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group (TFIT-WG) Dept. of Electromechanical Engineering University of Beira Interior Covilhã - Portugal THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE João C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. Devezas(PhD) IV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION 19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal

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