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Latin America's Strategic Options: Navigating the International Game

Explore Latin America's geopolitical landscape, from ideological divisions to bilateral relations, amidst the War on Terror, U.S. influence, and regional hegemonies. Discover the region's economic and political dimensions, revolutionary potentials, and global alliances.

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Latin America's Strategic Options: Navigating the International Game

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  1. OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

  2. THE WAR ON TERROR • U.S.-imposed rules of the game • Co-existence with geo-economic game • Ideological divisions: left, right, center • Prevalence of democratic discourse • Focus on “strategic options” • Unavailable alternatives: • Bolivarian dream of collective unity • Rule of international law, organizations

  3. 1. TURN TO THE NORTH • Vicente Fox (Mexico) • Hopes for immigration reform • NAFTA constraints • Opposition throughout Latin America • Comrades in the War on Terror • Colombia • Guatemala • The FTA Club • Chile [special case] • Central America + DR • Peru • Colombia • Panama

  4. 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY • Brazil (Lula + Dilma) • Grandeza brasileira • Role in Haiti • Resistance to FTAA • Venezuela (Chávez) • ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) • International assistance programs • Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries • Denunciations of Bush and USA • Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

  5. 3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS? • Cuba (Castros) • Armed rebellion no longer a path • Fatigue of revolutionary society • Institutionalization of charisma • Venezuela (Chávez) • “Socialism for the 21st Century” • Linkage to Cuba and Fidel • Bolivia (Morales) • Indigenismo • Politics of ethnic reivindicación

  6. 4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY • Brazil (Lula) • WTO • Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) • G3, G5 • Venezuela (Chávez) • Non-Aligned Movement • UN Security Council • Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

  7. 5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE • Europe • Divisions over Iraq • Concern about EU future • FTAs with Mexico, Chile • Distancing from/by Spain • Asia • Withdrawal of Japan • Eruption of “China fever” • PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba • Iran? • Really?

  8. ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS • Exports to China, 2008: • Argentina 9.0% • Brazil 12.4% • Chile 4.8% • Mexico 0.7% • Cuba 18.4% • Liberation from IMF: • Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn) • Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn) • IMF “relegated to sidelines”

  9. POLITICAL DIMENSIONS • Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies • Resuscitation of Cuba • Regional organizations w/o USA: • Rio Group (1986, 23 members) • Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members) • CELAC (2010, 33 members) • Ibero-American Summits (1991) • MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) • UNASUR (2005)

  10. BILATERAL DIMENSIONS • Argentina: “a distant relationship” • Brazil: “getting better all the time” • Chile: “cooperative friendship” • Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

  11. DISTINCTIONS? • Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central America/Caribbean • Political A: Right vs. Left • Political B: Moderate vs. Radical • U.S. Power: Diminished or Unused?

  12. THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?

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