1 / 38

Crop Outlook for 2011

Crop Outlook for 2011. FC Coop Grower Meeting Rockwell City and Farnhamville, Iowa Feb. 21, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA.

miller
Télécharger la présentation

Crop Outlook for 2011

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Crop Outlook for 2011 FC Coop Grower Meeting Rockwell City and Farnhamville, Iowa Feb. 21, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  5. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  6. La Niña Winter El Niño Neutral La Niña Source: NOAA

  7. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  8. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  9. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  10. 2010 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  11. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  12. Corn 2011 Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. 2010 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Soy 2011 Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  19. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  20. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  21. Fuel Prices

  22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  26. Corn

  27. Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  28. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  29. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  30. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  31. States with Room to Grow

  32. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  33. Projected Crop Margins

  34. Pre-Harvest Strategies 56% 52% 52% 52% 72% 68% 68% 68% 72% 68% Source: Farm Futures magazine

  35. Current Corn Futures

  36. Current Soybean Futures

  37. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Fears of Chinese inflation and credit tightening have hit the markets • Long-term oil prices are now in the $100 range • Supply/demand concerns • South America: La Niña impacts (Argentina , Brazil ) • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Ethanol & Biodiesel tax credits renewed • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.40, Soy $11.70 Futures (as of 2/18/2011): Corn $5.66, Soy $11.97 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 2/18/2011): Corn $5.96, Soy $12.87

  38. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

More Related