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Crop Outlook for 2011

Crop Outlook for 2011

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Crop Outlook for 2011

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  1. Crop Outlook for 2011 FC Coop Grower Meeting Rockwell City and Farnhamville, Iowa Feb. 21, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  5. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  6. La Niña Winter El Niño Neutral La Niña Source: NOAA

  7. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  8. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  9. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  10. 2010 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  11. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  12. Corn 2011 Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. 2010 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Soy 2011 Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  19. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  20. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  21. Fuel Prices

  22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  26. Corn

  27. Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  28. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  29. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  30. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  31. States with Room to Grow

  32. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  33. Projected Crop Margins

  34. Pre-Harvest Strategies 56% 52% 52% 52% 72% 68% 68% 68% 72% 68% Source: Farm Futures magazine

  35. Current Corn Futures

  36. Current Soybean Futures

  37. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Fears of Chinese inflation and credit tightening have hit the markets • Long-term oil prices are now in the $100 range • Supply/demand concerns • South America: La Niña impacts (Argentina , Brazil ) • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Ethanol & Biodiesel tax credits renewed • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.40, Soy $11.70 Futures (as of 2/18/2011): Corn $5.66, Soy $11.97 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 2/18/2011): Corn $5.96, Soy $12.87

  38. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/