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Objectives

Demography of displaced people Alisson F. Barbieri Department of Demography and CEDEPLAR, UFMG Richard E. Bilsborrow University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill International Workshop on Demography of Lusophone African Countries Belo Horizonte/22nd to 24th of May, 200. Objectives.

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Objectives

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  1. Demography of displaced peopleAlisson F. BarbieriDepartment of Demography and CEDEPLAR, UFMG Richard E. BilsborrowUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel HillInternational Workshop on Demography of Lusophone African CountriesBelo Horizonte/22nd to 24th of May, 200

  2. Objectives • Important to define and measure forced movements as a consequence of extreme events (natural disasters, climate change, wars, racial or political conflicts etc) • Problem is more serious when: • considering international movements • Concentration or diffusion of “in-migrants” in a territory: the sampling problem • Finding reliable informants • Measuring and understanding forced movements: census vs. surveys (or census and surveys?) Source: Hugo, 1996

  3. Demography of displaced people:organization of presentation • Environmentally-induced mobility • International migration as a consequence of extreme events (natural disasters, climate change, wars, racial or political conflicts etc) • Example of survey on Colombian refugees in Equador : concepts, methods and implementation

  4. Distinct causes of forced mobility = distinct concepts, distinct measurement and analytical methods Source: Hugo, 1996

  5. Source: UNEP website

  6. Source: UNEP website

  7. Source: UNEP website

  8. Model of Forced Mobility Source: Hugo, 1996

  9. Examples of displaced population in Africa, 1985 Source: Hugo, 1996

  10. The Importance of International Migration in the World Today • The UN Population Division (2006 SG Report) estimated the global stock of international migrants as 191 million persons in 2005 (those living outside their country of birth), the highest number ever and as high a percentage as ever • The stock was comprised almost equally of S-N, N-N, and S-S migrants • However, recent flows are primarily S-N, and highest since 1996, making international migration a major policy concern of many receiving countries • A share of this international migration is forced mobility

  11. International Migration and Development • The UN, World Bank, IDB and other international development agencies as well as bilateral donors have come to be much more interested in international migration and its contribution to development than has been the case before, leading to major studies and publications • International migrants are now generally coming to be seen as beneficial to both countries of origin and destination, providing an outlet for un/underemployed persons in the former, a source of labor and human capital in the latter, and again a source of funds and technology transfers in the former, depending on whether the migrants ever return or not • Remittances, probably mainly linked to the recent S-N migrants, are probably over $200 b per year now to low-income countries, constituting far more than total ODA, and being the major source of foreign exchange earnings for a number of developing countries, surpassing traditional exports and even petroleum

  12. Issues in surveys of international migration in countries of destination: focusing on displaced population (forced migration) • Identifying and locating international migrants is usually a problem, because of their (a) rarity in the country’s population, especially if we are interested mainly in recent migrants arriving; (b) undocumented status, which is common for half of more of those arriving in the U.S. and many other countries; (c) if linked to forced causes of displacement. • The “needle in the haystack” problem (Bilsborrow et al, 1984, 1997): combining proportionate (or even disproportionate) sampling of area units in one or more stages, including Primary Sampling Units (PSUs), followed by two-phase sampling at the last stage. • Two phase-sampling includes (i) listing all dwelling units and households (hhs) in sampled PSUs to identify those with and without defined international migrants, and (ii) oversampling those with migrants for actual interview.

  13. Potential for surveys on displaced people in Africa • Focus on both internal and international mobility (as showed above) • Develop conceptual framework, survey strategies and analytical methodologies • Example of survey on displaced people: The Project of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute • example of survey on Colombian refugees in Equador: concepts, methods and implementation

  14. The Project of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic InstituteSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Seeking more detailed data for program purposes than has been obtained from censuses in countries of asylum or administrative records on persons receiving assistance, UNHCR contracted NIDI to develop a methodology and organize specialized surveys of refugees and internally displaced persons in four developing countries, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Armenia and Ecuador. • Example on Ecuador - coordinated by Richard Bilsborrow, UNC-Chapel Hill, and survey implementation by Centro de Estudios sobre Población y Desarrollo Social (CEPAR), in Quito

  15. The first problem: searching for a sampling frameSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 There existed 3 possible sources, none satisfactory (as will often if not usually be the case) 1. the most recent census, in Nov. 2001, or about 5 years prior to the planned survey 2. border statistics 3. administrative records of UNHCR/EC

  16. Sampling frame source, cont.Source: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • UNHCR/EC statistics only cover those currently actually receiving assistance which UNHCR/EC recognizes is a minority of Colombians arriving recently in Ecuador • Border statistics include those arriving from Colombia but not those departing; cumulated since 1978, they would imply almost one in five inhabitants of Ecuador being Colombian-born, which is impossible • Therefore, the only possible sampling frame with national coverage was the census

  17. Haystacks and needles—searchingSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • In the Nov. 01 census, a question was asked about place of residence five years ago, with country identified if not Ecuador. This identifies international migrants coming to Ecuador in the previous 5 years (survivors), including from Colombia. But the percentage of these persons enumerated in the census was only .00175, or less than one-fifth of one percent, making it indeed rare • Only two provinces had over 1% (Sucumbios with 1.9 and Carchi with 1.2); these were taken to be the sampling domain, along with the next 3 provinces in terms of % recent Colombians, each with 0.3 to 0.4%, all five contiguous in the north of Ecuador close to the Colombian border

  18. Map of study region in EcuadorSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007

  19. Still on haystacksSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Number of census sectors in 2001: • Carchi, 437 • Esmeraldas 925 • Imbabura 880 • Pichincha 5541 • Sucumbios 368 • On average an urban sector has about 120 hhs and a rural one, 80 hhs (wide variation) • Based on how long travel, listing, and interviewing were expected to take, no more than 100 sectors could be surveyed • Budget helping to shape the sampling

  20. Original sample designSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Use proportionate or disproportionate sampling to select the provinces (21) with the highest prevalence of Colombians in 2001, then the cantons (counties, over 200) within those sample provinces, then the parroquias (over 1200) or parishes within those sample cantons • Once discovered that data could be obtained by special tabulations from INEC at the even more disaggregated level of the census sector, it was designed a one-stage sample with census sectors as the PSUs • Unfortunately, the cost of doing either or both combined of the above was beyond the UNHCR budgetary resources available, so the geographic scope had to be restricted to the (five) provinces with the highest % Colombians, in the north of the country

  21. Overall initial sample planSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Given the rarity of the Colombians in Ecuador, and the anticipated cost of listing all households in many sample census sectors, it was decided at the outset the use of a combination of methods of sampling for rare elements, sketched above, with a supplementary multiplicity or snowball sample, to take advantage of likely networks between Colombian immigrants • Given that multiplicity samples require a well-defined rule for linking derived elements to sample elements quantitatively, such as based on brothers/sisters, it was ruled out since any such cases of immigrants (refugees or not) would likely to be in similar situations and hence not provide independent information • Therefore, the option was to use a looser linkage rule, to ask sample respondents about any other adult non-relative Colombians they knew who had come in the reference period who lived nearby or in the same parroquia. This made the snowball part of the sample a non-probability sample of households

  22. Back to the haystacksSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Even limited to the 5 provinces, which contained 80% of the Colombians enumerated, the vast majority of the over 8 thousand census sectors would still have no recent Colombian immigrants in 2001, so there would be no point in undertaking a listing operation • Looking at the distribution of percentages of recent migrants from Colombia, it was decided to consider only, for the sample, those sectors with over 3% Colombians. This is the sample domain • 9 sectors in Sucumbios had to be dropped due to frequent prevalence of FARC, and 1 in Pichincha for having 142 males and 0 females. • The remaining sectors were put into an urban list and a rural one and then stratified separately according to the proportion Colombians

  23. Selecting the haystacksSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • The strata used for sampling sectors were as follows: • I Under 3% (0 probability of selection) • II 3-4.9% • III 5-9.9% • IV 10-14.9% • V over 15%, with the highest being 18.9% • Proportionate sampling was then used, selecting from III at double the rate of II, in V at double the rate in III. Note the mean of the strata are reasonably close to 3.7, 7.4, 12.1, and 15.8. After a random start, systematic sampling was used in the 3 provinces with many sectors, and controlled sampling was used in Esmeraldas and Imbabura

  24. Searching for the needles in the haystackSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • The first step in the two-phase fieldwork was the listing operation. A field team of 4 interviewers, 1 supervisor, and one driver with car could do about two urban sectors in a day and one rural sector • All occupied dwellings are listed and sketched on a map, indicating if they contain any Colombian who arrived since Jan. 1, 2000 (actually 6 years ago, but a memorable date) who was at least 15 at the age of arrival. Such a hh was called a migrant hh, and marked for later interview, usually same day or next day • If in a sector there were more than 10 hhs with a Colombian, only 10 were selected, randomly, to reduce clustering

  25. Searching for needles, cont.Source: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Problem 1. The vast majority of census sectors had fewer households with recent Colombian migrants than expected. The main exception was urban sectors in the Amazonian province of Sucumbios, bordering Putumayo on the Colombian side, a departamento with high violence and Plan Colombia activities • Problem 2. When interviewers asked respondents about other Colombians they knew in Ecuador, it was obtained far fewer names/addresses than expected. • At first it was thought that problem 2 could be solved by asking respondents to provide this information early in the interview rather than at the end of the long interview so that they wouldn’t be failing to give names due to the long questionnaire.

  26. Revised sample planSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • Following the two problems encountered in locating needles (households with recent-arriving adult Colombians) in the haystacks (sample sectors), it was clear that (a) the final sample taken was going to be depressingly small, but on the other hand, (b) the smaller number of interviews to carry out meant there would be budgetary resources to adapt, but that it could not count on the snowballing to increase the sample size • Decision: draw a supplementary sample of census sectors, following the same sampling procedures as before, selecting from sectors not yet sampled.

  27. ResultsSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • The final sample consisted of 534 households interviewed, with 499 having complete data on all variables for analysis • In these households lived 2028 persons, which included 904 Colombians who arrived since Jan. 1, 2000, and were over age 15 at the time of arrival (potentially decision-makers) • Of the 534 hhs, 183 or one-third were located through the snowball procedure, or far fewer than the over 500 anticipated

  28. More problems and some recommendations and issues for the futureSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • The main problem with the original selection of PSUs based on the prevalence of international migrants in the most recent census is the apparent high mobility of Colombians once they arrive. And unlike many other populations of international migrants, including refugees/asylum seekers, the focus of this project, they speak the same language, look alike, and are almost indistinguishable, so they blend in easily, which is what most wish to do since they are undocumented • Issues to think about surveys on internally displaced people • Evidently this is a bigger problem the more time has elapsed since the last census, here only 5 years • The enumeration of Colombians in the census was assuredly incomplete also.

  29. Issues,continuedSource: Richard Bilsborrow, 2007 • A complete report was submitted to UNHCR providing a wealth of demographic and socio-economic data, comparison of the status of the refugee/asylum seekers with other Colombian migrants, and comparing their status re. MDGs with Ecuadorian natives. This is available on the unhcr.org website

  30. Challenges and avenues of cooperation: case studies in Africa • Carrying out a survey of displaced people, especially-- • With no adequate sampling frame • In a developing country, including rural areas and areas of great insecurity • Of migrants who are mainly undocumented, and • Of migrants who are very poor and in need of assistance • Access to informants • Is it possible to do snowball (vs. multiplicity) sampling with probabilities of selection known? How about adaptive sampling in these conditions?

  31. Challenges and avenues of cooperation: case studies in Africa • Other survey issues • Concepts: what is a displaced population? Causes of mobility? Consequences of mobility (assimilation, disruption, return) • International migration as a complication • Multi-country study to fully understand causes and consequences of mobility • Internal mobility (wars, natural disasters etc): supposedly easier implementation (language, culture, access, etc) • Getting together: academics and multi-lateral institutions; funding agencies; consultants etc

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