Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft
Composition of U.S. Energy Use 100 75 coal wood Percent of total energy use oil 50 gas 25 animal feed electricity 0 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970 Labor Fuel Domesticated Animals
The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 300 200 Trillion kwh per year 100 +5 +1 +2 +3 -1 +4 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 Mayan Steam culture Stonehenge Built Parthenon Engine completed Pyramids Iron in constructed Black Middle Death East Inquisition Magellan's Circumnavigation
Results- Various Countries Algeria (EUR=26.09 BBO) Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO) Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO) Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)
Various National Patterns USA – E.g.. of a net consumer Venezuela – E.g. of a net producer High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario
Various National Patterns Mexico– E.g.. of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future. U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing producer. High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario
Forecasting Oil Production U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000). Peak Production = 2037 Source : US DOE (EIA), website.
Two Views • Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources • “Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6th-12th 1999, pp. 23-25 • Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil • “The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere) S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.
Gas Hog Tax Credit Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense
Cars per Thousand People Source: JustAuto.com “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.” Thomas Gross, US DOE
American success Great natural resourcesEnergy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuelsGlobal trade
Other Extinct cultures Rapa Nui- (Easter Island) Mangaia Mangereva Pitcairn Henderson Exception: Tikopia