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Oil Peak, Facts and Policies Feb. 20, 2008 Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute

Oil Peak, Facts and Policies Feb. 20, 2008 Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute Lecturer, Community and Intl. Development http://www.uvm.edu/giee. Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970. Labor. Fuel. Domesticated Animals. Composition of U.S. Energy Use. 100. 75. coal. wood.

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Oil Peak, Facts and Policies Feb. 20, 2008 Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute

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  1. Oil Peak, Facts and Policies Feb. 20, 2008 Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute Lecturer, Community and Intl. Development http://www.uvm.edu/giee

  2. Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970 Labor Fuel Domesticated Animals

  3. Composition of U.S. Energy Use 100 75 coal wood Percent of total energy use oil 50 gas 25 animal feed electricity 0 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

  4. WORLD ENERGY 2004

  5. Net Energy

  6. Hubbert Oil Cycle Marion King (MK) Hubbert

  7. The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 300 200 Trillion kwh per year 100 +5 +1 +2 +3 -1 +4 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 Mayan Steam culture Stonehenge Built Parthenon Engine completed Pyramids Iron in constructed Black Middle Death East Inquisition Magellan's Circumnavigation

  8. US Oil Extraction

  9. World Oil Extraction

  10. Oil Reserves

  11. US Oil Extraction

  12. World Oil Extraction

  13. World Oil Extraction

  14. Source: Boyle, et al, Oxford Press

  15. Oil consumption by area

  16. OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS ASPO Scenario

  17. World Oil Extraction

  18. World Oil Flows

  19. Oil Producers: 98 countries www.lastoilshock.com

  20. Oil Producers: 64 from 98 in decline, 60 terminally www.lastoilshock.com

  21. Oil Watch Monthly: October 2007 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3087

  22. Business As Usual-EIA

  23. Business As Usual-EIA

  24. 1960-1980 Predictions

  25. 1975-1983 Predictions

  26. Real Price of Oil 1869-2007

  27. World Oil Extraction

  28. Dumped Gas Hogs 1974 Lincoln~8mpg 1974 Corolla~30mpg

  29. 1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs Jet Industries: Citi-Car (Beaumont) Electricar Lectra “Better batteries 10 years away”

  30. WORLD ENERGY

  31. (61% FF=8.8%FF) 8.8+1.6+1= 11.4% Fossil Fuels

  32. How VT Heats 86% Fossil Fuels 86% Fossil Fuels

  33. How People Move-USEIA

  34. Gas Hog Tax Credit Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense

  35. Source: EPA

  36. Policy Recommendations: Guidelines Eliminate perverse incentives-make money! Provide positive incentives-account for externalities. ie: putting a price on carbon-make money or revenue neutral. Regulate (higher mpg) Spend money The playing field is NOT level. Fossil Fuels have 100 years of subsidies,ignoring external costs, and a huge lobby in DC. Don’t expect the “free market” to take care of it.

  37. WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active? • WHAT DON’T WE HAVE? • Oil-zero • Coal-zero • Nat Gas-not much (landfills) • Why promote consumption • of something we don’t have? • * Conduct an audit of perverse incentives promoting FF use. Eliminate perverse incentives.

  38. WHAT TO DO? • DEALING WITH PEAK OIL IS GOOD FOR • Climate Change • Vermont Economy • Should do it anyway

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