1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008

1. 1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: October 31, 2008 • Title: Regional Cloud Climatologies • Project Type: Product Development Proposal • Status: Renewal • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • Cynthia Combs, CIRA/Colorado State University • Other Participants: • Rachel Danner (CIRA/CSU undergraduate) • Melissa Goering, NWS, Cheyenne, WY • Mel Nordquist, NWS, Eureka, CA • Deb Molenar, StAR/RAMMB

2. 2. Project Summary • Develop GOES cloud climatology applications for specific regions and work with 2 NWS offices for evaluation • Transfer monthly wind regime climatologies into NWS Cheyenne, WY office to be used as a starting point in cloud cover forecast. • Work with Cheyenne to modify cloud climatologies to better suit their forecasting needs. • Build new cloud climatologies over Eureka, CA County Warning Area (CWA), stratified by parameters believed to influence marine stratus burn off rates. • Transfer new cloud climatologies to NWS Eureka office for use in their marine stratus forecasts. • Continue collecting and performing quality controls on GOES east and west imager data over the continental US • 10 year archive now available • Update monthly wind regime climatologies for NWS office in the continental US for new studies

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Weather and Water • Regional cloud climatologies have great potential to aid individual NWS offices in day to day forecasts by providing additional information on local climate based on local conditions. • Climatologies can help new forecasters become familiar with local weather phenomena

4. 4. Methodology • Continue following established collection and quality control procedures for data archive and monthly wind regime climatologies. • Convert cloud climatology products, currently in McIDAS format, into format acceptable by Cheyenne’s AWIPSGraphical Forecast Editor (GFE). • Work with Cheyenne personnel to implement product transfer. • Hold discussions with Cheyenne people for comments and suggestions on results. • Use discussions to correct problems and create improved regional climatologies over the Cheyenne CWA. • Work with Eureka to set up parameters for new climatologies, possibly using their terrain information. • Produce marine burn-off cloud climatologies based on new parameters using previous algorithms. Add data from recent year to new products. • Transfer new climatologies into Eureka’s GFE using lessons learned in Cheyenne’s transfers.

5. 5. Expected Outcomes • The database of quality controlled GOES images will continue to grow, providing data for a variety of future regional studies. • If successful, the Cheyenne NWS office will be able to use wind regime climatologies as a ‘first step’ in their cloud cover forecasts • New cloud climatology products should show what combination of factors affect daily marine stratus burn-off during summer months. This will provide information that will help the Eureka NWS office forecasts in both cloud cover and daily temperature. • Potential for new tool in AWIPS

6. b) a) Figure 2: Cloud percent climatology examples from the San Francisco/Monterey, CA study at 10:00 PDT for June-July 1999-2003. Shows the low cloud cover when the sea level pressure difference between San Francisco and Arcata, CA is large (a), and small (b).

7. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones • FY08 • Technical discussion with Cheyenne to set up format and procedure • Convert wind regime products into required format • Transfer products to Cheyenne • Set up new parameters for burn-off climatologies with Eureka • Set up and production of new burn-off climatologies.

8. Technical discussion with Cheyenne to set up format and procedure • On Oct 11, 2007, a meeting to discuss incorporating the wind regime cloud climatologies into the Cheyenne’s National Weather Service (NWS) office forecast process was held in Cheyenne, WY. • Attended by Science and Operations Officer, Melissa Goering, Information and Technology Officer, Ray Gomez from Cheyenne, and Deb Molenar and Cindy Combs from CIRA.  • Developed a plan to include the cloud climatologies into Cheyenne’s Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) for a first guess in cloud cover forecast. • Agreed that if would be tested on CIRA’s GFE before transferring to Cheyenne

9. Convert wind regime products into required format • The cloud climatology products have been successfully translated from McIdas format to netCDF. • The products have also been successfully transferred to CIRA’s GFE. • A meeting to demonstrate the cloud climatologies in CIRA’s GFE to the Cheyenne personnel is currently being arranged.

10. Transfer products to Cheyenne After the demonstration, arrangements will be made to transfer the climatologies to Cheyenne. Wind Regime Cloud climatology over Cheyenne, WY for July 98-07, 1800 UTC under calm, boundary layer wind conditions. 175 cases.

11. Set up new parameters for burn-off climatologies with Eureka • Cindy Combs has worked with Science and Operations Officer, Mel Nordquist and interns Treena Hartley and Becca Mazur to set up the climatologies. • In a phone conference Sep 18, 2007, decided that the Eureka office would determine how to quantify marine stratus depth from their office while CIRA preprocessed the data for the climatologies to include every hour over Eureka during May-Sep. • CIRA has the all of the normally quality-control data and all but four years of the extra hours ready to process. • Met with Becca Mazur at CIRA Feb 5, 2008 to discuss ways to determine marine stratus layer depth and data format/transfer issues • Eureka office still trying to find a way to use their GIS system to provide marine stratus depth to CIRA.

12. Set up and production of new burn-off climatologies. Eureka is still working on a way to measure their marine stratus depth. The climatologies will be produced, once this measure has been developed.

13. 7. FY09 Milestones • FY09 • Study results of burn-off climatologies • Convert climatology products into required format • Transfer products to Eureka • Discussion with Cheyenne on how wind regime climatologies are working for them, including comments, criticisms, and suggestions. • Work on solutions voiced in above discussion. • Start discussions with Duluth, MN for possible future collaboration. Set up preliminary website with wind regime climatologies to aid discussion. 13

14. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • CIRA base provides partial infrastructure and computer support

15. 9. Expected Purchase Items • $70,000 FY09 Total Project Budget • $70,000 Grant to CIRA • 10 months RS/SH support (2 people) • Publication charges • University overhead

16. References Combs, C. L., N. A. Stuart, M. DeMaria, and T. H. Vonder Haar: Wind regime GOES cloud cover composites for the Wakefield, VA county warning area. Preprints, 11th Conf. On Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Madison, WI, Oct 2001, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165-167. Combs, C. L., M. Weiland, M. DeMaria, and T.H.Vonder Haar: Examining high wind events using satellite cloud cover composites over the Cheyenne, WY region. Preprints CD, 12th Conf. On Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography,Long Beach, CA, Feb 2003, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,P2.25 Combs, C. L., M. DeMaria, W. Blier and W. Strach:Exploring the timing of fog formation and dissipation over the SanFrancisco Bay area using satellite cloud climatologies Preprints, 13th Conf. On Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, Norfolk,VA, Sep 2004, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P4.12