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Kurtosis • Amount of peakedness or flatness Kurtosis = 0 Kurtosis > 0 Kurtosis < 0
Design Tolerances • Design tolerance: • Determined by users’ needs • UTL -- Upper Tolerance Limit • LTL -- Lower Tolerance Limit • Eg: specified size +/- 0.005 inches • No connection between tolerance and • completely unrelated to natural variation.
LTL UTL 6 Process Capability and 6 LTL UTL 3 • A “capable” process has UTL and LTL 3 or more standard deviations away from the mean, or 3σ. • 99.7% (or more) of product is acceptable to customers
LTL LTL UTL UTL LTL UTL Process Capability Capable Not Capable LTL UTL
Process Capability • Specs: 1.5 +/- 0.01 • Mean: 1.505 Std. Dev. = 0.002 • Are we in trouble?
Capability Index • Capability Index (Cpk) will tell the position of the control limits relative to the design specifications. • Cpk>= 1.0, process is capable • Cpk< 1.0, process is not capable
Process Capability, Cpk • Tells how well parts produced fit into specs Process Specs 3 3 LTL UTL
Process Capability • Tells how well parts produced fit into specs • For our example: • Cpk= min[ 0.015/.006, 0.005/0.006] • Cpk= min[2.5,0.833] = 0.833 < 1 Process not capable
Packaged Goods • What are the Tolerance Levels? • What we have to do to measure capability? • What are the sources of variability?
Production Process Make Candy Make Candy Make Candy Mix Package Put in big bags Make Candy Mix % Wrong wt. Wrong wt. Make Candy Make Candy Candy irregularity
Processes Involved • Candy Manufacturing: • Are M&Ms uniform size & weight? • Should be easier with plain than peanut • Percentage of broken items (probably from printing) • Mixing: • Is proper color mix in each bag? • Individual packages: • Are same # put in each package? • Is same weight put in each package? • Large bags: • Are same number of packages put in each bag? • Is same weight put in each bag?
Your Job • Write down package # • Weigh package and candies, all together, in grams and ounces • Write down weights on form • Optional: • Open package, count total # candies • Count # of each color • Write down • Eat candies • Turn in form and empty complete wrappers for weighing
Peanut Color Mix website • Brown 17.7% 20% • Yellow 8.2% 20% • Red 9.5% 20% • Blue 15.4% 20% • Orange 26.4% 10% • Green 22.7% 10%
Plain Color Mix Class website • Brown 12.1% 30% • Yellow 14.7% 20% • Red 11.4% 20% • Blue 19.5% 10% • Orange 21.2% 10% • Green 21.2% 10%
So who cares? • Dept. of Commerce • National Institutes of Standards & Technology • NIST Handbook 133 • Fair Packaging and Labeling Act
Package Weight • “Not Labeled for Individual Retail Sale” • If individual is 18g • MAV is 10% = 1.8g • Nothing can be below 18g – 1.8g = 16.2g
Goal of Control Charts • collect and present data visually • allow us to see when trend appears • see when “out of control” point occurs
X Process Control Charts • Graph of sample data plotted over time UCL Process Average ± 3 LCL Time
X Process Control Charts • Graph of sample data plotted over time UCL Assignable Cause Variation LCL Natural Variation Time
Definitions of Out of Control • No points outside control limits • Same number above & below center line • Points seem to fall randomly above and below center line • Most are near the center line, only a few are close to control limits • 8 Consecutive pts on one side of centerline • 2 of 3 points in outer third • 4 of 5 in outer two-thirds region
Attributes vs. Variables Attributes: • Good / bad, works / doesn’t • count % bad (P chart) • count # defects / item (C chart) Variables: • measure length, weight, temperature (x-bar chart) • measure variability in length (R chart)
Attribute Control Charts • Tell us whether points in tolerance or not • p chart: percentage with given characteristic (usually whether defective or not) • np chart: number of units with characteristic • c chart: count # of occurrences in a fixed area of opportunity (defects per car) • u chart: # of events in a changeable area of opportunity (sq. yards of paper drawn from a machine)
R Chart • Type of variables control chart • Interval or ratio scaled numerical data • Shows sample ranges over time • Difference between smallest & largest values in inspection sample • Monitors variability in process • Example: Weigh samples of coffee & compute ranges of samples; Plot
Hotel Example You’re manager of a 500-room hotel. You want to analyze the time it takes to deliver luggage to the room. For 7 days, you collect data on 5 deliveries per day. Is the process in control?