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Can Money Matter in small island developing states? Evidence using the Solow estimator

Can Money Matter in small island developing states? Evidence using the Solow estimator. Associate Professor Dr K. C Jankee (University of Mauritius) Chairman, Development Bank of Mauritius Ltd.

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Can Money Matter in small island developing states? Evidence using the Solow estimator

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  1. Can Money Matter in small island developing states? Evidence using the Solow estimator Associate Professor Dr K. C Jankee (University of Mauritius) Chairman, Development Bank of Mauritius Ltd

  2. Objective is to estimate the contribution of real money balances to the productive capacity of Small Island Developing Economies (SIDS)

  3. Important issue in the light of the different financial and monetary policies adopted in these countries to develop and liberalise their financial systems

  4. Important for the strategy of financial globalisation and increasing economic liberalisation

  5. Features of SIDS • Consensus that SIDS are different in a number of different ways: • Exposure to Economic conditions in the rest of the world • Small domestic market and high dependence on exports • Limited terrestrial natural resource endowments and high import content • Limited diversification possibilities • Dependence on a narrow range of products • Inability to influence international prices • Market thinness

  6. Peripherality • High per unit transport cost • Marginalisation • Uncertainties of supply • Need to keep large quantities of stocks

  7. Trade Vulnerability • High Dependence on Trade Taxes • Vulnerability of Domestic Industries • Dependence on Trade Preferences • Limitations of the Subsidy Rules • Role of state Trading enterprises • TRIPS

  8. Proneness to Natural Disasters • Limited Ability to Exploit Economies of Scale • Limitations on Domestic competition • Difficulties in absorbing FDI • Limited investment opportunities • Problems of public administration etc

  9. Literature • Solow estimator (1957) of output elasticity of real money balances. • Empirics: • Bhattacharyay (1986) computed output elasticities for the monetary base and narrow money (M1) for India and Pakistan • Result indicated very low output elasticities as in the case of U.S

  10. Present paper computes output elasticity of real money balances for a sample of SIDS • - Sample classified into those of low income, middle and high income countries. • - sample also divided into those with low and high level of financial development

  11. Computations • Output elasticity of real money balances are computed using three alternative definitions of money as follows: • 1. High Powered Money • 2. Narrow Money Supply • 3. Broad Money supply • Opportunity cost variables: treasury bill rate, money market rate , discount rate

  12. Results • Results reported for the different sub samples • Very low output elasticities of real money balances • Ranging between 0.0001- 0.1 • Robustness tests undertaken

  13. Conclusion • contribution of real money balances to the productive capacity of the economy remains very low in the small island developing economies (SIDS)

  14. Possible solutions to these economies: • Foreign Ownership of intermediaries • Regional markets • Shared Regional infrastructure • Financial (infrastructural services) imported from abroad • Regulations and supervision

  15. Capital Account opening and exchange rate arrangements

  16. Thank You

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