Mobility Doing Business with the World - The new role of corporate leadership in global development Geneva, September 2007 World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Overview • The global view: Mobilizing a growing population • Tomorrow’s market: projected transport demand growth by mode • Projection of number of motorized vehicles • ICT around the world
The global view: Mobilizing a growing population 2030 Total Pop. 8.11 2000 Total Pop. 6.06 1975 Total Pop. 4.07 1950 Total Pop. 2.52 Source: UN (2001) Basic premise: Passenger transport demand is determined by population and income1 World population 1950-2030 (billions of people) Transport has been critical to unlocking resources and promoting economic development Lack of access to transportation, goods and information are both symptoms of poverty and key factors in keeping families, communities and nations poor Data source for pie charts: UN 2001. United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2001.
Tomorrow’s market: projected transport demand growth by mode Comparison between OECD and non-OECD countries Personal transport Goods transport Source: IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculations Graphs generated by George Eads from Worldwide Demand for Mobility and Petroleum presentation
Projection of number of motorized vehicles Today there are an estimated one billion vehicles worldwide Total Stock of Motorized Vehicles (millions) Source: WBCSD 2004, IEA/SMP transport model
ICT around the world Digital technologies create gains from transactional efficiency, improved manufacturing controls, and energy efficiency in processes. "Rural people have systematically less access to ICT than their urban counterpart." -UNESCO. 2004. "Transforming the Digital Divide into Digital Opportunities for Rural Populations" Penetration rates (%) for internet and telecommunications
Needs & Challenges • Societal needs • What are the challenges?
Societal needs Road related deaths, 2000 Traffic fatalities in low and middle-income countries are expected to increase by 80% between 2000 and 2020.1 Percentage of people within 30 minutes walk of an all weather road In rural areas the World Bank estimates that about 900 million inhabitants lack access to reliable transport.2
What are the challenges? Africa is impacted by high handling times and charges at the ports, poor road and rail networks, higher operating cost of vehicles, unnecessary road blocks, various taxes & transit charges Poor regulatory frameworks and burdensome bureaucracy hinder improved mobility in many developing nations Freight cost as a percentage of total import value (%) Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Economic Report on Africa 2004, ECA, from official sources. Available at http://www.uneca.org/ERA2004/
Opportunities • How can business contribute? • What is the market size? • Key messages • WBCSD Resources
How can business contribute? • By adopting the goals outlined in the WBCSD Mobility 2030 report • Developing new renewable energy solutions to power the mobility sector • Assisting with more effective urban planning and infrastructure development • Developing virtual mobility solutions Public-private partnerships are increasingly being used to solve mobility problems “If emissions from cars are to be cut, engines will have to become dramatically more efficient, or there will have to be a technological breakthrough to replace petrol with a clean fuel.” –The Economist The drive for low emissions (31 May 2007) Transportation demand management? Nano-technology? Tomorrow’s market Bus rapid transit? Hydrogen fuel cells? Corn ethanol? Cellulosic ethanol? Hybrid? Biobutanol?
What is the market size? BOP spending on transportation $179.3 billion BOP spending on ICT $51.4 billion There is a significantly large market that is yet to be connected Source: WRI and IFC. The Next 4 Billion. 2007.
Key messages • For business, investing in sustainable mobility can: • Create competitive advantage by developing new and affordable technologies • Create new markets for transport solutions and ICT • Reduce transportation costs and improve the efficiency of supply chain sourcing and product distribution to markets • Reduce the lost time and security issues affecting the workforce from transport-related problems • For governments, an effective policy framework for sustainable mobility can: • Improve levels of economic development and social progress • Create improved and more interconnected transportation infrastructure • Improve urban planning and the long term sustainability of mobility solutions in cities • Improve the environmental and social performance of the mobility sector through mitigation of negative environmental and social impacts
WBCSD Resources Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability Mobility 2030 is the final report of the WBCSD's Sustainable Mobility project. This publication identifies seven sustainable mobility goals and establishes a set of indicators to help measure the effectiveness of the various options. Mobility as a Driver for Economic Development: Tanzania Case Study The Mobility for Development workstream builds on the Sustainable Mobility project. The four case studies that form a key part of this work programme include Tanzania, India, China and Brazil. The Tanzania case study is the first of four assessments of mobility challenges and opportunities. The final “Mobility for Development” report will be published in the second half of 2008.
Photo credits Flickr www.wbcsd.org/web/development.htm