1 / 12

Current intellectual challenges to the field of conflict resolution:

Complexity Models and Conflict: A Case Study from Kosovo Conference on Conflict and Complexity Glenda H. Eoyang geoyang@hsdinstitute.org Lois Yellowthunder lois@vis.com.

Télécharger la présentation

Current intellectual challenges to the field of conflict resolution:

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Complexity Models and Conflict: A Case Study from KosovoConference on Conflict and ComplexityGlenda H. Eoyang geoyang@hsdinstitute.orgLois Yellowthunder lois@vis.com

  2. “. . . the chief characteristic of this emerging world is . . . the interconnectedness of the destructive forces, the interwoven and increasingly interacting worldwide forces of economic, political and military power: a global culture of violence. This is fuelled at all levels, from individual to nation and perhaps even to international bloc, by the hope for power and profit.” Adam CurleTo Tame The Hydra: Undermining the culture of violence

  3. Current intellectual challenges to the field of conflict resolution: • 1) the appropriateness of impartial conflict resolution techniques where war is fuelled by ‘greed rather than grievance,’ • 2) internal wars representing “…the emergence of new types of social formation adapted for survival on the margins of the global economy…” and • 3) western cultural bias built into current models of conflict resolution. Ramsbotham, et al

  4. CDE Model • ContainersHold the agents of the system together as system-wide patterns form • DifferencesDistinctions to which specific behavior is attached • Transforming exchangesTransaction that transfers resources and amplifies or dampens behaviors Eoyang

  5. ConstrainedContainer

  6. ConstrainedDifference

  7. ConstrainedExchange

  8. Has Peacebuilding Made a Difference in Kosovo? • Collaborative for Development Action (CDA) conducted the study of peacebuilding efforts in Kosovo between 1999 and 2004. • Study commissioned in 2006 by CARE International, Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the UK, CARE UK, CARE Austria, and CDA. • We focus on one case study, No Violence, No Returns in Gjilan/Gnjilane Municipality. • The entire study is available on-line.

  9. Case Themes • Community context (Difference) • Incidents of violence (Exchange) • Demographics of community members (Difference) • Connectors (Exchange) • Dividers (Exchange) • Peacebuilding activities (Exchange)

  10. Issues with Modeling • Inductive techniques • Nonlinear time series analysis • Indicates coherence and dimensionality but not explicitly C, D, E • Deductive techniques • Agent-based modeling • Simple rules based on C, D, E • Coupled, nonlinear equations for C, D, E • Inductive/deductive techniques • Iterative hypothesis development/testing • Action research and adaptive decision making

  11. Issues with Modeling • Human systems are multi-leveled • Many parameters can function as each condition • Distinguishing between uncertainties: • Randomness • N-dimensional, nonlinear, dynamical system • Objective, subjective, and normative truths

  12. Emerging Questions • Are containers, differences, and exchanges the necessary and sufficient conditions for patterns of peace? • What innovative options for peace building action are generated in light of the CDE Model? • How can stakeholders use CDE to influence their own emergent, complex adaptive patterns? • What mode of simulation modeling is most effective to represent the CDE Model? • How can a CDE-based simulation model be tested against objective, subjective, and normative data regarding peace and peace building activities?

More Related