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Warm-Up

Warm-Up. What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a woman who likes P.E.? 2. Given that you select a man, what is the probability that he likes Social S tudies? 3. What is the probability that you select a person who likes Math?. 8/50 = .16. 10/20 = .50. 18/50 = .36.

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Warm-Up

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  1. Warm-Up What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a woman who likes P.E.? 2. Given that you select a man, what is the probability that he likes Social Studies? 3. What is the probability that you select a person who likes Math? 8/50 = .16 10/20 = .50 18/50 = .36

  2. Skills Check Correlation, Linear Regression, & Exponential Regression

  3. Residuals From the Carnegie Foundation math.mtsac.edu/statway/lesson_3.3.1_version1.5A

  4. Residuals Residual is another word for ERROR

  5. Residuals To find the residual you take the ACTUAL data and SUBTRACT the PREDICTED data.

  6. Analyzing Residuals • Determines the effectiveness of the regression model

  7. Residual Plots A residual plot is another type of SCATTERPLOT that shows the relationship of the residual to the x value.

  8. Residual Plots Determine • If it the regression model is appropriate, then the residual plot will have a RANDOMscatter. • If the residual plot creates a pattern then the regression model is NOT A GOOD FIT. Pattern = Problem

  9. Example of Random Scatter

  10. Examples Determine, just by visual inspection, if the linear model is appropriate or inappropriate.

  11. Linear model appropriate or inappropriate?

  12. The only way to know is to see the residual plot. 1. Does their appear to be a pattern in the residual plot? Yes, quadratic. 2. Does this support your original guess? You must now see that a linear model does NOT fit this data.

  13. Linear model appropriate or inappropriate?

  14. The only way to know is to see the residual plot. 1. Does their appear to be a pattern in the residual plot? Yes, it fans out as x increases. 2. Does this support your original guess? You must now see that a linear model does NOT fit this data.

  15. Linear model appropriate or inappropriate?

  16. The only way to know is to see the residual plot. 1. Does their appear to be a pattern in the residual plot? Yes, it looks quadratic. 2. Does this support your original guess? This was very tricky. The scale was very small. You must now see that a linear model does NOT fit this data.

  17. Linear model appropriate or inappropriate?

  18. The only way to know is to see the residual plot. 1. Does their appear to be a pattern in the residual plot? Yes, it seems decrease as x increases. 2. Does this support your original guess? This was tricky. You must now see that a linear model does NOT fit this data.

  19. Example: Calculate Residual

  20. Example: Calculate Residual

  21. Example: Calculate Residual

  22. Good fit or not? Residual Total Time

  23. Good fit or not? Residual Total Time

  24. Classwork Residuals Task – Carnival

  25. Homework Residuals CW worksheet

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